Forex News Timeline

Tuesday, July 15, 2025

The Australian Dollar (AUD) weakened further against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, following stronger-than-expected US inflation data that dampened hopes for a near-term interest rate cut. The Greenback surged across the board, pushing AUD/USD to 0.6510 during the American trading session.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}The Australian Dollar extends its decline for the third consecutive day against the US Dollar.Sticky inflation pressures prompted markets to scale back Fed interest rate cut expectations in September.The US Dollar Index climbs to 98.70, reaching a three-week high on firm inflation and hawkish rate repricing.The Australian Dollar (AUD) weakened further against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, following stronger-than-expected US inflation data that dampened hopes for a near-term interest rate cut. The Greenback surged across the board, pushing AUD/USD to 0.6510 during the American trading session.US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.3% in June from the previous month, slightly above the 0.2% consensusand 2.7% YoY, surpassing May’s 2.4% print. It marked the fastest pace since January and signaled that underlying price pressures remain sticky despite the Fed’s tightening efforts. The data prompted a sharp repricing in Fed funds futures, with the odds of a September rate cut falling below 55%, down from nearly 65% earlier in the week.The strong CPI reading reignited demand for the US Dollar, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) spiking to 98.70 its highest level in three weeks. The Greenback’s rise weighed on risk-sensitive currencies, such as the Aussie, especially amid a cautious global risk environment dominated by trade tensions.Following the June CPI report, former President Donald Trump took to Truth Social to renew his call for immediate interest rate cuts, declaring: “Consumer Prices LOW. Bring down the Fed Rate, NOW!!!” He claimed that a substantial reduction in interest rates could save the U.S. government over a trillion dollars annually in debt servicing costs. The post adds another layer of political pressure on the Federal Reserve, even as inflation remains above the 2% target and markets continue to price in only gradual policy easing in the coming months. Australian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.61% 0.36% 0.83% 0.12% 0.53% 0.55% 0.43% EUR -0.61% -0.32% 0.19% -0.51% -0.12% -0.12% -0.18% GBP -0.36% 0.32% 0.50% -0.19% 0.17% 0.16% 0.30% JPY -0.83% -0.19% -0.50% -0.72% -0.30% -0.33% -0.32% CAD -0.12% 0.51% 0.19% 0.72% 0.41% 0.36% 0.48% AUD -0.53% 0.12% -0.17% 0.30% -0.41% -0.02% 0.07% NZD -0.55% 0.12% -0.16% 0.33% -0.36% 0.02% 0.12% CHF -0.43% 0.18% -0.30% 0.32% -0.48% -0.07% -0.12% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).

The USD/JPY rallies sharply over 0.86% during the North American session, trading at 148.95, approaching the 149.00 figure for the first time since April 2025. A slightly hot CPI report in the United States (US) sent US Treasury yields soaring, while traders priced out a short-term rate cut.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}US CPI hits 2.7% YoY, reinforcing Fed's hawkish stance amid inflation concernsTreasury yields jump, with 10-year note reaching 4.483%, boosting USD/JPYTrump renews pressure on Fed, calling for aggressive 3% rate cutsThe USD/JPY rallies sharply over 0.86% during the North American session, trading at 148.95, approaching the 149.00 figure for the first time since April 2025. A slightly hot CPI report in the United States (US) sent US Treasury yields soaring, while traders priced out a short-term rate cut.Dollar surges 0.86% against Yen after US inflation tops forecasts and Trump urges massive Fed cutsThe US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed that June Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% YoY and remains far from the Fed’s 2% goal. Core figures were also up, approaching the 3% threshold amid comments from US President Donald Trump, who once again attacked the Fed, adding that they should cut rates by 3%.Money markets suggest that the Fed will keep rates unchanged at around the 4.25%-4.50% range in Jun, with odds standing at 95.87% according to data revealed by Prime Market Terminal.The US 10-year Treasury note yield, which correlates closely with the USD/JPY, is up four and a half basis points at 4.483%, underpinning the US Dollar.USD/JPY Price Forecast: Technical outlookThe USD/JPY daily chart suggests that further upside is seen, but buyers will face resistance at the 200-day SMA at 149.61. If surpassed, the pair would shift bullish, and be poised to challenge 150.00. Otherwise, if the pair stays below 149.00, traders can drive the exchange rate towards June 23 high turned support at 148.02. Japanese Yen PRICE This week The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies this week. Japanese Yen was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.64% 0.83% 1.18% 0.17% 0.83% 0.99% 0.57% EUR -0.64% 0.16% 0.52% -0.48% 0.17% 0.34% -0.08% GBP -0.83% -0.16% 0.30% -0.64% 0.01% 0.18% -0.10% JPY -1.18% -0.52% -0.30% -0.87% -0.33% -0.12% -0.54% CAD -0.17% 0.48% 0.64% 0.87% 0.66% 0.82% 0.40% AUD -0.83% -0.17% -0.01% 0.33% -0.66% 0.14% -0.28% NZD -0.99% -0.34% -0.18% 0.12% -0.82% -0.14% -0.42% CHF -0.57% 0.08% 0.10% 0.54% -0.40% 0.28% 0.42% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote).

EUR/USD backslid on Tuesday, falling over eight-tenths of one percent and tumbling into its lowest bids in nearly three weeks.

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Fed FAQs What does the Federal Reserve do, how does it impact the US Dollar? Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback. How often does the Fed hold monetary policy meetings? The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it impact USD? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening (QT) and how does it impact the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.

GBP/USD shed another two-thirds of one percent top-to-bottom on Tuesday, extending into an eighth consecutive day of Cable losses.

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Fed FAQs What does the Federal Reserve do, how does it impact the US Dollar? Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback. How often does the Fed hold monetary policy meetings? The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it impact USD? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening (QT) and how does it impact the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) fumbled on Tuesday, losing enough ground to knock the megacap index back below the previous week’s close, but still holding onto near-term consolidation levels.

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US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation showed price pressures are still on the wrong side of Federal Reserve (Fed) targets, knocking investor hopes for a summer rate cut even further back.Inflation: Back on the menu?US CPI inflation rose through the tail end of the second quarter. Despite the figures mostly keeping in line with or beating median forecasts, investors are still feeling the pressure from rising price pressures. Annualized headline CPI inflation rose to 2.7% YoY in June, moving in the opposite direction of the Fed policy target range of 2%. With inflation pressures still simmering away in the background, already-thin market hopes for an early rate cut from the Fed have evaporated.According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool, rate traders have fully priced in a rate hold at the Fed’s July rate meeting. Hopes for a September rate cut also got knocked back post-CPI, with 44% odds of a continued hold on rates on the books. Rate markets are still holding out for two cuts in 2025 despite still-warm inflation measures, with 80% odds of at least a quarter-point rate cut priced in for October.Tech stocks continue to paper over possible equity market cracksElsewhere in the markets, tech rally fans caught an updraft after Nvidia (NVDA) CEO Jensen Huang announced that the Trump administration would grant Nvidia a reprieve from tech restrictions on China, allowing the silicon-punching megagiant to resume selling AI-focused chipsets into the Chinese market. The announcement may come with strings attached, however: the Trump team is gearing up for a large-scale announcement at the end of the month to declare their plans to ensure continued US dominance in the AI tech space. With the Trump administration’s habit of whipsawing on new and old regulations, exemptions, and restrictions alike, there could easily be material changes to Nvidia’s foreign market access long before exports of highly profitable hardware can resume.Still, things are looking good for Nvidia; the chipstack manufacturer is the first company in history to reach a $4T market cap. Nvidia has climbed around 1,500% from its post-COVID low of $10.81 per share from October of 2022.Banking stocks also stumbled on Tuesday. Q2 earnings reports overall beat expectations; however, declining income guidance knocked Wells Fargo (WFC) down around 4% on the day. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) also declined slightly despite beating headline earnings expectations, and asset management giant BlackRock (BLK) tumbled 6% after missing revenue forecasts entirely.Dow Jones price forecastTech gains notwithstanding, the Dow Jones is in the red on Tuesday, declining by over 0.85% from top to bottom and shedding nearly 400 points at its lowest, as bullish exhaustion gives way to a choppy consolidation phase, testing below 44,200 for the second time this week. Despite recent consolidation, the Dow is still holding firmly on the bullish side, albeit still below all-time highs north of 45,000 as the industry-heavy blue chip index underperforms its tech-biased siblings.Dow Jones 5-minute chart
Dow Jones daily chart
Dow Jones FAQs What is the Dow Jones? The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500. What factors impact the Dow Jones Industrial Average? Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions. What is Dow Theory? Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits. How can I trade the DJIA? There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.

The GBP/USD extended its losses to four consecutive days after the latest inflation report in the United States (US) showed signs of rising, the first indication that tariffs triggered a jump in prices. At the time of writing, the pair trades below 1.3400, down by 0.23%.

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At the time of writing, the pair trades below 1.3400, down by 0.23%.Sterling extends losing streak to four days after hot US CPI fuels Fed hold bets and BoE cut expectationsThe US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revealed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June increased the most in five months, rose by 2.7% YoY, exceeding estimates of 2.6% and May’s 2.4% rise. Excluding volatile items like food and energy, the so-called core CPI increased by 2.9% YoY, up from 2.8% achieved in three straight months but below forecasts of 3%.The data further reinforced the Federal Reserve’s stance to hold rates unchanged at least for the July meeting. Traders are still pricing in over 43 basis points of easing toward the year’s end, according to data from the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT).The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the value of the Dollar against six major currencies, is up 0.46% at 98.55. US Treasury yields are also up, with the 10-year note yielding 4.475% nearly four basis points up.Across the pond, the UK economic docket is scarce. Nevertheless, last week’s UK GDP report revealed that the economy unexpectedly contracted for the second consecutive month, exerting pressure on the Bank of England (BoE) to deliver interest rate cuts towards the end of the year.Money markets show traders expect two rate cuts to the Bank Rate, from 4.25% to 3.75%.Economic calendarThe US economic docket will feature the Producer Price Index (PPI) and Retail Sales data. In the UK, the calendar will feature CPI for June, which is expected to remain unchanged, with headline inflation at 3.4% and core CPI at 3.5%.GBP/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlookIn the near term, the GBP/USD is neutral to downward biased as the pair aims to challenge the first support, seen at 1.3369, the June 23 cycle low. If breached, the next support is 1.3300, followed by the 100-day SMA at 1.3263.The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates that sellers have continued to gain momentum, suggesting further downside is expected.For a bullish continuation, the GBP/USD must climb past the 50-day SMA at 1.3495. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

The Euro (EUR) is trading in a narrow range against the Swiss Franc (CHF) on Tuesday, with price action consolidating near the 0.9300 mark.

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At the time of writing, EUR/CHF remains within a well-defined descending triangle pattern. The price is currently holding above support at 0.9293, the base of the triangle. A confirmed break below this level would expose the May low at 0.9280. On the daily chart, the technical outlook remains bearish, characterized by a steady sequence of lower highs and lower lows. If this zone is breached, further downside toward 0.9224 becomes increasingly likely. Conversely, a move higher that breaks above the immediate resistance at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of the March high-April low move, around 0.9327, could shift short-term sentiment. Beyond this, a confluence of resistance lies near 0.9352, where the descending trendline intersects with the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), followed by the 50-day SMA at 0.9360. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily timeframe sits at 41, indicating ongoing bearish pressure without signaling oversold conditions, leaving room for additional downside before a technical rebound becomes likely.EUR/CHF daily chartThe 4-hour chart reinforces the broader downtrend, showing price action continuing to respect the descending trendline and trading beneath both the 20-period and 50-period SMA, currently at 0.9311 and 0.9328, respectively. These dynamic resistance levels cap any bullish attempts. The pair remains supported just above 0.9293, with additional horizontal support at 0.9280, both of which have been tested multiple times. This clustered support zone indicates the market is at a critical juncture, with sellers struggling to force a clean breakdown. However, if bears succeed in pushing below 0.9280, it could trigger an accelerated decline toward the next major support at 0.9224. On the other hand, a break above 0.9328–0.9330, followed by a close above the descending trendline, would weaken the bearish structure and potentially initiate a move toward 0.9495, aligning with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the March-April decline.EUR/CHF 4-hour chart Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

GDP growth remained solid at 5.2% y/y in Q2, while monthly data indicates signs of softening. Investment growth slowed sharply in June partly due to a deeper decline in housing investment. Deflationary pressure escalated, partly reflecting overcapacity in some sectors.

GDP growth remained solid at 5.2% y/y in Q2, while monthly data indicates signs of softening. Investment growth slowed sharply in June partly due to a deeper decline in housing investment. Deflationary pressure escalated, partly reflecting overcapacity in some sectors. More efforts to stabilize the housing sector and promote services consumption likely in H2, Standard Chartered's economists report. Investment losing steam"China’s economic growth remained resilient in Q2 thanks to front-loaded production and trade activity, as well as fiscal stimulus. Seasonally adjusted GDP expanded 1.1% q/q in Q2, merely 0.1ppt slower than Q1. Real GDP growth moderated 0.2ppt from Q1 to 5.2% y/y, staying above 5% for the third straight quarter. Consumption remained the key driver and net exports continued to support economic growth. The negative gap between nominal GDP growth (3.9% y/y) and real growth widened, suggesting persistent and intensified deflationary pressure. The GDP deflator fell 1.2% y/y in Q2, staying negative for nine straight quarters, on our estimate.""However, June data indicates that domestic momentum slowed from May, partly reflecting the tariff impact and fading front-loading boost. While industrial production (IP) growth accelerated to a three-month high of 6.8% y/y, m/m growth slowed. Retail sales declined m/m, partly due to normalization from the May holiday boost, in our view. In addition, fixed asset investment (FAI) fell m/m on a further contraction in real estate investment, as well as slower growth in manufacturing and infrastructure investment. We expect growth momentum to ease entering H2 as forces contributing to YTD outperformance may soften.""We maintain our 2025 growth forecast at 4.8% and see no urgency for policy makers to introduce additional stimulus given the H1 outperformance. We expect more policy efforts to stabilize the housing sector through faster acquisition of unsold homes and unused land and promotion of urban-village renovation."

New Zealand GDT Price Index increased to 1.1% from previous -4.1%

The Euro extends its advance for the third consecutive session against the Japanese Yen on Tuesday, with EUR/JPY climbing toward the 173.00 level during the American session — a level last seen on 12 July 2024.

The EUR/JPY hits a fresh yearly high, holding above 173.00 during the American trading session.Japanese Yen under pressure as wide interest rate differentials, import-driven inflation, and political uncertainty weigh on sentiment.Eurozone industrial production rebounds strongly in May, rising 1.7% MoM and 3.7% YoY.The Euro extends its advance for the third consecutive session against the Japanese Yen on Tuesday, with EUR/JPY climbing toward the 173.00 level during the American session — a level last seen on 12 July 2024. The pair remains underpinned by persistent Yen weakness, as the Yen struggles amid a wide interest rate differential, renewed US tariff threats, and rising import-driven inflation pressures.Despite inflation staying above its 2% target, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) has been very hesitant to aggressively raise interest rates. Policymakers remain cautious, citing fragile domestic demand and global uncertainties. Compounding the pressure on the Yen, Japan faces growing political uncertainty ahead of the July 20 Upper House elections, where polls suggest the ruling coalition may lose its majority.This has sparked concerns over fiscal policy direction and limited the BoJ’s flexibility, as it seeks to avoid introducing volatility during the sensitive pre-election period. Investors are also factoring in the risk of increased government spending after the election, which could further widen the country’s already substantial debt burden. As a result, market sentiment continues to lean against the Yen, allowing EUR/JPY to hold near its highest levels in over a year.Adding to the Euro’s support, Eurozone data released earlier today showed a notable rebound in industrial activity. Industrial production rose by 1.7% month-over-month in May, reversing April’s sharp decline of 2.2% and comfortably beating expectations for a 0.9% increase. On a yearly basis, output surged by 3.7%, the strongest pace since early 2023.Meanwhile, sentiment across the Eurozone showed a modest uptick. The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment rose slightly to 36.1 in July, from 35.3 in the prior month. Though it missed market forecasts of 37.8, the small improvement suggests that investor confidence remains broadly stable.From a technical perspective, EUR/JPY continues to push higher, trading near the 173.00 mark. The Fibonacci retracement tool, drawn from the July-August 2024 decline, shows that the pair has cleared the 78.6% retracement level at 170.91, which now acts as a key support zone. The daily chart structure remains bullish, with the pair consistently printing higher highs and higher lows.Momentum indicators reinforce the uptrend, with the Average Directional Index (ADX) rising to 46.42, signaling strong trend strength. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 75.16 suggests the pair is in overbought territory, hinting at the possibility of a near-term pause or pullback.If the current bullish momentum persists, EUR/JPY is well-positioned to test the 100% Fibonacci projection near 175.36, the next key upside target. However, given the overbought RSI reading, a short pullback toward the 170.90-171.00 zone cannot be ruled out. This area now serves as the first line of defense for bulls, with deeper support seen around 167.50-168.00. As long as the pair holds above these levels, the broader uptrend remains intact, with dips likely to be viewed as buying opportunities.

Colombia Retail Sales (YoY) came in at 13.2%, above forecasts (12.4%) in May

The price of Silver is attempting to recover from Monday’s slump as traders digest fresh economic data from China, the Eurozone, and the United States.

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After reaching a new year-to-date high of $39.13 in the previous session, profit-taking at elevated levels pushed XAG/USD back toward the key psychological level of $38.00.At the time of writing, Silver continues to trade within an ascending channel, with price action sensitive to shifts in risk sentiment and the near-term direction of the US Dollar.US Dollar strength weighs on Silver as CPI data support yieldsThe June Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed that headline CPI rose 2.7% (YoY), in line with expectations, while core CPI came in at 2.9%, slightly lower than the 3% consensus but still well above the Fed’s 2% target. The lack of faster disinflation has tempered expectations for a September rate cut, with Fed funds futures now pricing in a 59% probability, slightly lower than prior to the release.The market reaction reflects a repricing of interest rate expectations, with Treasury yields firming and the US Dollar advancing. Despite encouraging industrial figures from China and the Eurozone, the US economy remains comparatively resilient, making the Greenback more attractive relative to other major currencies. Robust Industrial data from China and Europe limits the downside for SilverDuring the Asian session, China’s Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) came in at 5.2% (YoY), slightly above expectations of 5.1% but down from 5.4% in the same quarter last year. On a quarterly basis, GDP grew 1.1%, beating the 0.9% forecast. However, more importantly for Silver, Industrial Production surged by 6.8% annually, up from 5.8%, signaling robust factory activity.Since Silver is widely used in electronics, solar panels, and industrial manufacturing, it is highly sensitive to global production trends.Adding to the momentum, Eurozone industrial production also surprised to the upside in May. Output rose 1.7% (MoM) versus a 0.9% estimate, while annual production jumped 3.7% (vs. 2.9% forecast), marking a sharp recovery from April’s contraction. This broad improvement in global industrial performance strengthens the case for continued physical demand for Silver across both Europe and Asia.Silver pulls back below $38.50 as bullish momentum fades near YTD highAfter rising to a fresh year-to-date high of $39.13 on Monday, Silver faced selling pressure that capped the rally. By Tuesday, XAG/USD had retreated toward the $38.00 psychological level, though price action remains confined within a rising channel on the 4-hour chart. Key support is seen at the psychological level of $38.00 and the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $37.23, while resistance remains at the YTD high of $39.13. Silver 4-hour chartThe Relative Strength Index (RSI) has eased to 58, reflecting a loss of momentum without signaling oversold conditions. Unless bulls reclaim control above $38.50, Silver risks slipping toward $36.50, where the next significant support zone is located. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) strengthens against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, as traders digest fresh inflation data from both Canada and the United States.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}The Canadian Dollar strengthens slightly against the US Dollar after June CPI data matches expectations.Headline CPI in Canada rose by 1.9% YoY, up from 1.7% in May, driven by smaller declines in gasoline prices and higher durable goods costs.US CPI surprises to the upside, with headline inflation rising 0.3% MoM and 2.7% YoY. The Canadian Dollar (CAD) strengthens against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, as traders digest fresh inflation data from both Canada and the United States. The June Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures, released at 12:30 GMT, provided new insights into the monetary policy outlooks for the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the Federal Reserve (Fed), particularly as markets remain focused on the inflationary impact of recent tariffs.At the time of writing, the USD/CAD pair is trading near 1.3675, holding within a narrow, week-long trading range. The pair has exhibited limited directional momentum in recent sessions, with price action largely confined between support at around 1.3650 and resistance near 1.3700.Statistics Canada reported on Tuesday that the CPI rose by 1.9% YoY in June, up from 1.7% in May, matching market expectations. The modest rise in annual inflation was largely driven by a smaller drop in gasoline prices and faster price increases for durable goods, including passenger vehicles and household furniture.Meanwhile, core CPI, which strips out food and energy, climbed to 2.7% YoY from 2.5% in May, signaling that underlying inflationary pressures are picking up. This reinforces the BoC's cautious stance, making another rate cut at the upcoming July 30 policy meeting less certain. While headline inflation remains near target, the uptick in core prices may give policymakers reason to pause.In contrast, the US CPI report showed a sharper acceleration in price pressures. Headline inflation rose to 0.3% MoM — the largest gain in five months — lifting the annual rate to 2.7%, up from 2.4% in May. The Core CPI also increased by 0.2% MoM, with the annual rate rising to 2.9% from 2.8%.The report showed firm price gains across energy, transportation, and tariff-affected sectors, suggesting trade-related inflation is beginning to flow through to consumers.The hotter-than-expected US inflation print has pushed back market expectations for an interest rate cut, with traders now seeing reduced odds of a policy shift in the near term.Looking ahead, market focus will shift to comments from Federal Reserve officials later in the day, as investors look for policy signals following the stronger-than-expected US CPI report. Remarks from Fed Governors Michael Barr and Michelle Bowman will be closely watched for any insight into how the central bank views the latest inflation data and its implications for interest rates. With the next FOMC meeting approaching, any shift in tone could influence interest rate expectations and impact the US Dollar’s near-term direction. Canadian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Canadian Dollar (CAD) against listed major currencies today. Canadian Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.11% -0.09% 0.15% -0.22% -0.37% -0.38% -0.31% EUR 0.11% -0.05% 0.22% -0.13% -0.31% -0.33% -0.19% GBP 0.09% 0.05% 0.26% -0.09% -0.29% -0.30% 0.00% JPY -0.15% -0.22% -0.26% -0.38% -0.50% -0.56% -0.36% CAD 0.22% 0.13% 0.09% 0.38% -0.14% -0.22% 0.09% AUD 0.37% 0.31% 0.29% 0.50% 0.14% -0.03% 0.24% NZD 0.38% 0.33% 0.30% 0.56% 0.22% 0.03% 0.31% CHF 0.31% 0.19% -0.01% 0.36% -0.09% -0.24% -0.31% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Canadian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent CAD (base)/USD (quote).

United States Redbook Index (YoY) declined to 5.2% in July 11 from previous 5.9%

United States Consumer Price Index Core s.a climbed from previous 326.85 to 327.6 in June

Canada Consumer Price Index - Core (MoM) increased to 0.3% in June from previous 0.2%

United States Consumer Price Index n.s.a (MoM) came in at 322.561, above expectations (322.5) in June

Canada Consumer Price Index (YoY) in line with expectations (1.9%) in June

Canada Consumer Price Index (MoM) meets forecasts (0.1%) in June

Canada BoC Consumer Price Index Core (MoM): 0.1% (June) vs previous 0.6%

United States NY Empire State Manufacturing Index above forecasts (-9) in July: Actual (5.5)

United States Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) came in at 2.9%, below expectations (3%) in June

United States Consumer Price Index (YoY) in line with expectations (2.7%) in June

United States Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (MoM) registered at 0.2%, below expectations (0.3%) in June

Canada BoC Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) climbed from previous 2.5% to 2.7% in June

The US Dollar (USD) is trading on a slightly softer footing on Tuesday as investors brace for the closely watched US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release. With market participants repositioning ahead of key inflation data, the Greenback is struggling to hold onto its previous day's gains.

.fxs-event-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-event-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-event-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:12px}.fxs-event-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-event-module-header{color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px;margin:0;padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;padding-right:32px}.fxs-event-module-header label{cursor:pointer;display:block}.fxs-event-module-header label:after,.fxs-event-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:17.6px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:20.8px;margin:4px 0 0 0}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title-description-wrapper{display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;padding-bottom:16px;margin-bottom:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar{padding:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-section{padding:0}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The US Dollar trades slightly lower ahead of June CPI data, with the DXY holding around the 98.00 mark.Market sentiment remains cautious amid ongoing tariff threats from US President Trump.June CPI is expected to rise by 0.3% from last month, while Core CPI is projected to rise by 3.0% YoY, up from 2.8% in May.The US Dollar (USD) is trading on a slightly softer footing on Tuesday as investors brace for the closely watched US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release. With market participants repositioning ahead of key inflation data, the Greenback is struggling to hold onto its previous day's gains.The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading modestly lower, hovering near the 98.00 psychological mark during the European session. While the index remains supported, it faces a confluence of key technical resistance at current levels, that is discouraging traders from placing aggressive bets. The broader market tone stays cautious amid ongoing tariff threats from US President Donald Trump, while investors await the US CPI data for fresh directional cues.The US CPI report for June is scheduled for release at 12:30 GMT. The significance of this release is heightened by current economic conditions, particularly concerns surrounding the impact of tariffs on consumer prices. Economists expect headline inflation to rise to 0.3% MoM, which would be the biggest monthly gain in five months, following a smaller 0.1% rise in May. The annual inflation rate is expected to rise to 2.7% from 2.4% in May.The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, is projected to rise to 3.0% year-over-year, up from the 2.8%advance in the previous month. The expected increase is partly due to rising costs resulting from recent US tariffs, which are being passed on to consumers through higher prices. Still, while some of the tariff effects may have already been felt, a more substantial influence is anticipated from July onwards. A hotter-than-expected CPI print could dampen hopes for near-term interest rate cuts, while a softer reading may revive expectations for a dovish pivot from the Fed.Fed Chair Jerome Powell has clearly stated that uncertainty over the impact of tariffs is one of the main reasons why the central bank has held off on cutting interest rates. Powell highlighted that the Fed “went on hold when we saw the size of the tariffs,” and now intends to assess how deeply tariffs will filter through to consumer prices and growth before easing monetary policy. While some Fed officials believe the tariffs may cause only a temporary rise in prices, many are worried that the inflation effects could be more lasting, making it harder for the Fed to lower rates in the near term.Market Movers: Trump doubles down on tariffs and criticism of Fed PowellOn Monday, US President Donald Trump announced plans to impose “very severe tariffs” — potentially up to 100% — on Russian exports if a peace deal with Ukraine is not reached within 50 days. In a further escalation, Trump also warned of “secondary tariffs” on countries that continue to engage in trade with Russia, particularly targeting those still importing Russian Oil and Gas. The move is aimed at isolating Moscow economically and increasing pressure on its trading partners, including China, India, and Turkey. These aggressive trade threats have heightened global market uncertainty and raised fears of further disruptions to global supply chains, particularly in the energy and commodities sectors.The yield on the benchmark US 10‑year Treasury note held steady above 4.43% on Tuesday, marking a one-month high as investors await today’s June CPI report. The sustained rise in yields reflects ongoing expectations that inflation may remain elevated due to tariff-related pressures, signaling that the Federal Reserve could delay interest rate cuts until price growth shows clearer signs of cooling.The second-quarter earnings season in the US begins this week, with major banks such as JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Goldman Sachs scheduled to report their results. Investors are closely monitoring the impact of rising costs and trade tensions on companies. Analysts expect modest earnings growth of about 5.8% YoY, well below the 10.2% estimate seen in early April, underscoring the impact of tariff-related uncertainties on corporate profits.US President Donald Trump has once again targeted the Fed Chair Jerome Powell. In comments made Monday, Trump called Powell a “knucklehead” and criticized him for keeping interest rates too high, arguing that rates should already be closer to 1%. He also claimed that Powell is hurting the economy by refusing to move faster on rate cuts. In addition to his policy criticism, Trump’s remarks come as his administration probes the Fed’s recent $2.5 billion headquarters renovation project, suggesting the costs were excessive and hinting at the possibility of firing Powell “for cause.”The Supreme Court has signaled that a president cannot remove a Fed Chair simply for policy disagreements, misconduct, or mismanagement could be grounds for removal. However, White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett has stated that this issue is "being looked into" to determine if it provides sufficient cause.According to The Washington Post, Hassett is emerging as a leading contender to succeed Powell as the next Federal Reserve chair. Hassett supports President Donald Trump’s push for lower rates and risks being seen by the markets as lacking policy autonomy.Technical Analysis: DXY recovery stalls, CPI may drive next move The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading near the 98.00 psychological level as investors await the release of the June CPI report. Over the past two weeks, the index has been recovering steadily, supported by the 9-day moving average at 97.70. The price is currently testing the upper boundary of the wedge near 98.00, but bullish momentum appears tentative ahead of the inflation data. Bulls would need a strong push, possibly from a hotter-than-expected CPI report, to decisively break above 98.00 and reinforce the short-term bullish correction. If that happens, we could see the DXY head toward the 98.80-99.00 zone in the near term.Momentum indicators reflect a cautious tone. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering flat around the neutral 50 level, indicating a lack of strong buying interest.Meanwhile, the Average Directional Index (ADX) remains weak at 11.64, reflecting a lack of clear trend strength. Overall, any big moves hinge on the upcoming inflation data. A hotter-than-expected CPI reading could provide the fuel needed for a bullish breakout above wedge resistance, reinforcing the case for reduced Fed interest rate-cut expectations and lifting the Greenback. Conversely, a softer CPI print may trigger a pullback, with immediate downside support seen near the 9-day EMA at 97.70 and the lower wedge boundary near 96.50. Economic Indicator Consumer Price Index (MoM) Inflationary or deflationary tendencies are measured by periodically summing the prices of a basket of representative goods and services and presenting the data as The Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI data is compiled on a monthly basis and released by the US Department of Labor Statistics. The MoM figure compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the previous month.The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Tue Jul 15, 2025 12:30 Frequency: Monthly Consensus: 0.3% Previous: 0.1% Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Why it matters to traders? The US Federal Reserve (Fed) has a dual mandate of maintaining price stability and maximum employment. According to such mandate, inflation should be at around 2% YoY and has become the weakest pillar of the central bank’s directive ever since the world suffered a pandemic, which extends to these days. Price pressures keep rising amid supply-chain issues and bottlenecks, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) hanging at multi-decade highs. The Fed has already taken measures to tame inflation and is expected to maintain an aggressive stance in the foreseeable future.

Gold (XAU/USD) is holding firm, trading slightly higher in the European session on Tuesday, with buyers stepping in ahead of key US inflation data as tariff concerns resurface.

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50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Gold holds around $3,350 as markets await US CPI; inflation risks tied to tariffs in focus.The Fed's interest rate outlook hinges on the June CPI. Headline inflation is expected at 2.7% (YoY) with core CPI estimated at 3.0%.XAU/USD technical breakout is looming above $3,371, with support near $3,337.Gold (XAU/USD) is holding firm, trading slightly higher in the European session on Tuesday, with buyers stepping in ahead of key US inflation data as tariff concerns resurface.The precious metal bounces back from Monday’s dip and is trading above $3,350 at the time of writing. Focus now shifts to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release for June at 12:30 GMT, a major short-term catalyst for price action.Markets are closely watching CPI data for signs that tariff-driven cost pressures are being passed on to consumers.Economists are forecasting the annual headline CPI figure for June to rise 2.7%, up from 2.4%. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, is expected to print at 3%, up from 2.8%.These figures matter because inflation that runs hot could force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to delay interest rate cuts, which would help raise the demand for US yields. A stronger US Dollar (USD) in response to rising yields could limit the short-term upside potential for XAU/USD. However, expectations persist that persistent inflation will increase the likelihood of the economy slowing at a faster pace. Since inflation reduces the purchasing power of a currency, Gold is often seen as a hedge against such risks, which may help limit the downside move.Gold daily digest: Trade tensions, tariff risks, and price pressures drive XAU/USD price actionAccording to the CME FedWatch Tool, analysts expect the Fed to hold interest rates steady within the 4.25% to 4.50% range in July. The probability of a September rate cut is currently at 59.3%, which may change in response to the US inflation data. Additional catalysts for Gold on Tuesday include developments in bilateral relations. As the August 1 tariff deadline approaches, the increase in levies on US imports could further support demand for safe-haven assets, including precious metals. In contrast, easing trade tensions and improved risk sentiment could weigh on XAU/USD price action.After US President Donald Trump announced that tariffs on EU imports to the US will be set at 30% on Saturday, an official statement was published on the European Commission’s press corner on Sunday, which read, “We remain ready to continue working towards an agreement by August 1. At the same time, we will take all necessary steps to safeguard EU interests, including the adoption of proportionate countermeasures if required.” On Friday, President Trump announced that Mexico will also face a 30% levy on imports to the US. A letter to Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, posted on Truth Social read: “Despite our strong relationship, you will recall, the United States imposed Tariffs on Mexico to deal with our Nation’s Fentanyl crisis, which is caused, in part, by Mexico’s failure to stop the Cartels, who are made up of the most despicable people who ever walked the Earth, from pouring these drugs into our country,” In a press conference on Monday, President Sheinbaum responded, stating that “If the United States government and its agencies wanted to address the serious consumption of fentanyl in their country, they could combat the sale of narcotics on the streets of their main cities, which they don't do".The wave of trade threats, especially from the US, Mexico, and the EU, adds a layer of political uncertainty that supports safe-haven demand in Gold. Traders may continue buying dips in XAU/USD not just on soft economic data, but also on signs of deteriorating diplomacy, particularly if rhetoric escalates ahead of August 1 deadline.Gold technical analysis: XAU/USD holds above $3,350 with $3,400 in sight Gold is holding above $3,350 at the time of writing, with the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) providing immediate support near $3,337. Below that level, the next supports to look out for are the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) around $3,324 and the $3,300 psychological level.Price action has broken out of a tightening triangle formation, hinting at a bullish outlook ahead, although confirmation is needed above the $3,371, which aligns with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the April low-high range.Gold (XAU/USD) daily chartA clean move through $3,400 could open the door toward the June high of $3,452 and a potential retest of the record high at $3,500. Meanwhile, the daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently around 55, suggesting that bullish momentum has room to run without being overbought. Economic Indicator Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) Inflationary or deflationary tendencies are measured by periodically summing the prices of a basket of representative goods and services and presenting the data as the Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI data is compiled on a monthly basis and released by the US Department of Labor Statistics. The YoY reading compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. The CPI Ex Food & Energy excludes the so-called more volatile food and energy components to give a more accurate measurement of price pressures. Generally speaking, a high reading is bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Tue Jul 15, 2025 12:30 Frequency: Monthly Consensus: 3% Previous: 2.8% Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Why it matters to traders? The US Federal Reserve has a dual mandate of maintaining price stability and maximum employment. According to such mandate, inflation should be at around 2% YoY and has become the weakest pillar of the central bank’s directive ever since the world suffered a pandemic, which extends to these days. Price pressures keep rising amid supply-chain issues and bottlenecks, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) hanging at multi-decade highs. The Fed has already taken measures to tame inflation and is expected to maintain an aggressive stance in the foreseeable future. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

The Euro is trading lower against the Pound on Tuesday. The strong German economic sentiment and upbeat Eurozone Industrial Production figures have failed to push the pair above the 0.8700 level.

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The broader trend remains positive, as the common currency continues to show a sequence of higher highs and higher lows, appreciating 3.8% from May’s lows. Technical indicators, however, have reached oversold levels, and the 4-hour RSI exhibits a bearish divergence, which may signal a potential bearish reversal.

Data from the ZEW Economic Research Institute, released on Tuesday, suggests that investors’ sentiment about the economic outlook has improved to 52.7 from 47.5 in May, well above market expectations of a 50.0 reading.

Likewise, their opinion about the current economic situation has improved to -59.5, from -72.0 in the previous month, also beating the -65.5 reading anticipated by the market consensus.

Eurozone’s Industrial Production has also posted a positive surprise. Factory activity accelerated by 1.7% in May, beating expectations of a 0.6% growth, while April's reading was revised higher to a 2.2% contraction from the previously estimated 2.4% fall. Economic Indicator Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) The Industrial Production index, released by Eurostat on a monthly basis, measures changes in the price-adjusted output of industry. It is a widely-followed indicator to gauge the strength in the Eurozone’s manufacturing sector. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Euro (EUR), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Last release: Tue Jul 15, 2025 09:00 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 1.7% Consensus: 0.9% Previous: -2.4% Source: Eurostat Economic Indicator ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment The Economic Sentiment published by the Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung measures the institutional investor sentiment, reflecting the difference between the share of investors that are optimistic and the share of analysts that are pessimistic. A positive number means that the share of optimists outweighs the share of pessimists. usually, an optimistic view is considered as positive (or bullish) for the EUR, whereas a pessimistic view is considered as negative (or bearish). Read more. Last release: Tue Jul 15, 2025 09:00 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 36.1 Consensus: 37.8 Previous: 35.3 Source: ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research

The USD/JPY pair extends its two-day winning streak on Tuesday, revisits the two-month high around 148.00 during the European session. The pair trades firmly amid trade frictions between the United States (US) and Japan.

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p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}USD/JPY revisits the two-month high around 148.00 ahead of the US CPI data for June.Japan’s Ishiba is expected to meet US Bessent this week.The US inflation is expected to have grown at a faster pace in June.The USD/JPY pair extends its two-day winning streak on Tuesday, revisits the two-month high around 148.00 during the European session. The pair trades firmly amid trade frictions between the United States (US) and Japan.Last week, US President Donald Trump imposed 25% tariffs on imports from Japan, which are separate from sectoral levies, after failing to close a trade deal during the 90-day tariff pause period. However, Tokyo continues to negotiate trade with Washington to close a trade deal before the new deadline of August 1.Earlier in the day, the Yomiuri newspaper reported that Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is expected to meet US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Friday, while he will attend the US national day at the World Expo 2025.The imposition of significant tariffs on Tokyo by Washington has kept the Japanese yen (JPY) on the back foot. Japanese Yen PRICE Last 7 days The table below shows the percentage change of Japanese Yen (JPY) against listed major currencies last 7 days. Japanese Yen was the weakest against the Australian Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD 0.36% 1.20% 1.27% 0.05% -1.04% 0.11% -0.18% EUR -0.36% 0.84% 0.95% -0.31% -1.42% -0.24% -0.53% GBP -1.20% -0.84% 0.14% -1.14% -2.24% -1.07% -1.36% JPY -1.27% -0.95% -0.14% -1.23% -2.32% -1.12% -1.36% CAD -0.05% 0.31% 1.14% 1.23% -1.12% 0.07% -0.23% AUD 1.04% 1.42% 2.24% 2.32% 1.12% 1.20% 0.89% NZD -0.11% 0.24% 1.07% 1.12% -0.07% -1.20% -0.29% CHF 0.18% 0.53% 1.36% 1.36% 0.23% -0.89% 0.29% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Japanese Yen from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent JPY (base)/USD (quote). Meanwhile, investors await the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. Economists expect the US CPI data to have grown at a faster pace. The headline CPI is expected to have risen by 2.7%, faster than 2.4% in May.Ahead of the US inflation data, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades close to the three-week high around 98.00. Economic Indicator Consumer Price Index (YoY) Inflationary or deflationary tendencies are measured by periodically summing the prices of a basket of representative goods and services and presenting the data as The Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI data is compiled on a monthly basis and released by the US Department of Labor Statistics. The YoY reading compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the same month a year earlier.The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Tue Jul 15, 2025 12:30 Frequency: Monthly Consensus: 2.7% Previous: 2.4% Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Why it matters to traders? The US Federal Reserve (Fed) has a dual mandate of maintaining price stability and maximum employment. According to such mandate, inflation should be at around 2% YoY and has become the weakest pillar of the central bank’s directive ever since the world suffered a pandemic, which extends to these days. Price pressures keep rising amid supply-chain issues and bottlenecks, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) hanging at multi-decade highs. The Fed has already taken measures to tame inflation and is expected to maintain an aggressive stance in the foreseeable future.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) is flat against the US Dollar (USD) and consolidating in a tight range just above its recent lows, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) is flat against the US Dollar (USD) and consolidating in a tight range just above its recent lows, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report. Higher yields offer limited support "Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) are trading defensively and long-end yields are hitting fresh multi-decade highs ahead of this weekend’s upper house election. Market participants appear to be concerned about the fiscal implications of the vote, given talk of consumption tax cuts to appease an inflation-weary electorate." "Higher JGB yields would typically provide the JPY support via narrowed spreads, however sentiment appears to be dominating and the options market reveals a continued erosion in the premium for protection against JPY strength." "For USD/JPY, we continue to highlight the importance of the two month range bound between 142.50 support and 148.00 resistance. A break would shift the focus to the 200 day MA (149.71)."

According to data from the statistics office, Aluminum production in China, the most important producer country, declined slightly in June compared to the previous month, Commerzbank's Head of FX and Commodity Research Thu Lan Nguyen notes.

According to data from the statistics office, Aluminum production in China, the most important producer country, declined slightly in June compared to the previous month, Commerzbank's Head of FX and Commodity Research Thu Lan Nguyen notes. Aluminum production in China remains a negative factor for prices"However, this is not surprising, as production had reached a new record high in May. Since the Aluminum industry is actually subject to a government-imposed production cap of 45 million tons per year, smelters must curb their operations, otherwise the limit would be exceeded.""Over the past six months, production averaged 3.78 million tons per month, which would correspond to 45.4 million tons for the year. A slight reduction in production in the second half of the year should therefore be expected." "However, it remains to be seen whether this will actually happen. After all, Chinese smelters have recently become somewhat more profitable again thanks to falling alumina prices. The current high level of Aluminum production in China remains a negative factor for prices for the time being."

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is up 0.2% against the US Dollar (USD) and a mid-performer among the G10, attempting stabilization in the mid-1.34s following an aggressive pullback from its July 1 multi-year high, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) is up 0.2% against the US Dollar (USD) and a mid-performer among the G10, attempting stabilization in the mid-1.34s following an aggressive pullback from its July 1 multi-year high, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report. RSI is marginally bearish just above 40"There have been no major data releases and market participants are looking to Wednesday’s CPI release as the next major event risk. The release is unlikely to shift expectations for the BoE, where markets are pricing one 25bpt cut at the next meeting on August 7. Recent BoE communication has been dovish, with a specific focus on concerns related to the labor market." "The latest pullback looks to have struggled to extend much below the 50 day MA (1.3501), a level of medium-term support. The RSI is marginally bearish just above 40 and we look to a near-term range bound between 1.3400 support and 1.3520 resistance."

The Euro (EUR) is up a modest 0.2% against the US Dollar (USD) and attempting stabilization in the mid/upper-1.16s, supported by an improvement in the broader market’s mood, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.

The Euro (EUR) is up a modest 0.2% against the US Dollar (USD) and attempting stabilization in the mid/upper-1.16s, supported by an improvement in the broader market’s mood, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report. EUR shows no reaction to ZEW sentiment surprise"The ZEW investor sentiment figures came in better than expected but offered no immediate reaction in the currency.""Trade tensions remain a key source of uncertainty but market participants appear to be finding reassurance in both sides’ willingness to continue negotiations. Short-term rates markets are unchanged and still pricing around 25bpts of easing by year end. ECB communication has been unequivocally neutral and markets are pricing no change for next Thursday’s meeting. ""The EUR’s medium-term trend remains bullish but the latest pullback has brought its momentum indicators back to neutral. We note the continued importance of the 50 day MA (1.1479) in terms of offering medium-term support, and see the near-term range roughly bound between 1.1650 support and 1.1720 resistance."

The Copper price remained stable at levels above $9,600 per ton at the start of the week. However, downward pressure remains high, Commerzbank's Head of FX and Commodity Research Thu Lan Nguyen notes.

The Copper price remained stable at levels above $9,600 per ton at the start of the week. However, downward pressure remains high, Commerzbank's Head of FX and Commodity Research Thu Lan Nguyen notes. Sgns still point to expansion"On the one hand, the inventory build on the LME has continued since the beginning of the month, indicating a slowdown in the US import pull. On the other hand, the still robust Copper ore imports of the world's most important metal producer, China, suggest that Copper production there will remain dynamic for the time being. Imports have fallen significantly from their record high in April." "Overall, however, they are still up around 6% for the first half of the year compared to the same period last year. So far, Chinese smelters seem to be coping well with the low treatment and refining charges. The rise in the Copper price, which has improved margins, has certainly helped. Since the beginning of the year, the price traded on the LME has risen by almost 10%." "However, as US tariffs are likely to have a price-dampening effect (outside the US), no further support is to be expected from this side. In this respect, it is questionable how profitable it is for Chinese smelters to maintain production at a high level. For the time being, however, the signs still point to expansion."

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) continues to respect its recent range parameters, effectively idling between 1.3650/1.3750 in quiet trade over the past few days as sentiment ricochets between tariff concerns and domestic data reports.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) continues to respect its recent range parameters, effectively idling between 1.3650/1.3750 in quiet trade over the past few days as sentiment ricochets between tariff concerns and domestic data reports.Sticky core inflation to reinforce BoC hold outlook"The consensus forecast for today’s Canadian CPI is a rise of 0.1% M/M for June. Scotia is above the street at 0.2% M/M, however. Headline inflation is expected to pick up to 1.9% Y/Y with a 0.1% M/M gain, up from 1.7% in May. Both core Trim and Median inflation are forecast to remain at 3.0% Y/Y, close to where these measures appear to have stabilized in the past couple of months." "Firm core data will reinforce expectations that a BoC policy is more likely in the coming months as policymakers monitor developments but a range breakout may hinge more on external developments than domestic data. Spot’s choppy consolidation over the past week has driven spot into a tightening range on the intraday chart defined by minor trend resistance at 1.3710 and minor trend support at 1.3680 this morning." "Weak trend momentum on the intraday and daily oscillators are not helpful in trying to establish directional risks and may mean that a breakout from the short term range stalls relatively quickly. A sustained break above 1.3750 or below 1.3650 may be needed to drive more directional momentum."

The price of Silver has risen significantly since Friday, temporarily gaining around 5% to over $39 per troy ounce, Commerzbank's Head of FX and Commodity Research Thu Lan Nguyen notes.

The price of Silver has risen significantly since Friday, temporarily gaining around 5% to over $39 per troy ounce, Commerzbank's Head of FX and Commodity Research Thu Lan Nguyen notes. Further price increases for precious metals are not justified"This saw the precious metal overtake its “big brother” Gold, which only managed a 1.5% increase. There is no fundamental explanation for this movement. On the contrary, the trigger appeared to be increased uncertainty due to US President Trump's recent tariff announcement, which favored safe havens. The Japanese yen and Swiss franc also gained slightly against the US dollar." "However, Silver is far less suitable as a safe haven than Gold, as the precious metal has a high industrial use and demand therefore tends to decline during an economic downturn. The fact that Silver nevertheless outperformed Gold is more likely to be due to a catch-up effect, similar to what we saw recently with Platinum." "With Gold having gained around 30% since the beginning of the year, the upside potential appears limited for many investors, prompting them to look for cheaper alternatives instead. This benefits Silver, Platinum, and Palladium, all of which had been trading at significant discounts to Gold. However, we do not consider further price increases for these metals to be justified, as physical demand for them is likely to suffer from the consequences of US tariffs."

The US Dollar (USD) started trading Monday on a soft note but the Dollar Index (DXY) ended up a little firmer on the day overall, extending its run higher for a tenth consecutive session, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.

The US Dollar (USD) started trading Monday on a soft note but the Dollar Index (DXY) ended up a little firmer on the day overall, extending its run higher for a tenth consecutive session, Scotiabank's Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report. USD broadly lower ahead of CPI"The USD is trading lower against a broader range of currencies this morning but remains at some risk of dropping back a little or at least consolidating the July rebound. My informal rule of thumb holds that it is very rare for developed currency moves to extend (higher or lower) for more than 10-12 sessions on the bounce. The DXY may be running into more significant technical resistance now as its nears resistance around 98.25//30, a small gap that opened on the chart in late June when the USD dipped on Middle East ceasefire talk." "While markets appear to have something of the summer doldrums about them, this week’s US data should help drive a bit more volatility in FX. June CPI data today are expected to rise 0.3% in the month, according to the street (Scotia forecasts +0.2%), for a 2.6% gain in the year (up from 2.4% in May). Core prices are also forecast to rise 0.3% for a 2.9% gain in the year (also up from May’s 2.8%). Sticky prices will support the Fed’s reluctance to even consider easing policy while there is still so much uncertainty around where tariffs will land (and what the impact on price trends will be ultimately)." "If CPI were to persist at a 0.3% M/M clip, headline inflation would track higher to 3/3.1% by year-end, we estimate. Even if the data miss on the downside today, the Fed will want to see a sustained period of low prices before cutting. Whatever the outcome, White House’s attacks on the Fed Chair are likely to continue. Rising US inflation swaps may reflect waning market confidence in the Fed’s ability to curb prices, something that should ultimately weigh on the USD and perhaps reinvigorate the bull run in gold (above $3425)."

China's crude Oil imports were again strong in June: according to customs authorities, 49.9 million tons were imported, 7% more than in the previous month, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Barbara Lambrecht notes.

China's crude Oil imports were again strong in June: according to customs authorities, 49.9 million tons were imported, 7% more than in the previous month, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Barbara Lambrecht notes. Build-up of stocks in China may slow down at any time"This corresponds to daily crude Oil imports of just under 12.2 million barrels. The (daily) imports were thus slightly higher than in March and the highest since summer 2023. The high imports are in line with the strong crude Oil processing reported this morning in China, which climbed to 15.2 million barrels per day, the highest level since September. Margins are currently high, especially in the diesel market, making high processing (and exports) attractive at present.""Nevertheless, given the rather weak domestic demand (partly structural, partly cyclical), which was confirmed by Q2 GDP data this morning (see here), a certain overshoot in crude Oil imports can be observed. In its latest monthly report, the IEA refers to estimates that crude Oil stocks in China rose by 82 million barrels in the second quarter, or just under 900,000 barrels per day. This is one of the largest increases in inventories ever recorded in a single quarter." "China wants to improve its energy security and, since January 1, 2025, has also required companies to maintain strategic reserves. The background to this is that statestorage facilities are already 80% full, while commercial storage facilities are only 50% full. However, the sharp increase also poses a risk: the build-up of stocks in China, which is an important support for the Oil market, could slow down at any time."

US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade sideways between 7.1630 and 7.1780 against Chinese Yuan (CNH). In the longer run, USD is expected to trade in a range between 7.1550 and 7.1920, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade sideways between 7.1630 and 7.1780 against Chinese Yuan (CNH). In the longer run, USD is expected to trade in a range between 7.1550 and 7.1920, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. USD is expected to trade in a range24-HOUR VIEW: "We noted 'a slight increase in downward momentum' yesterday, and we held the view that 'this could lead to USD edging lower.' However, we indicated that 'any decline is unlikely to break below 7.1630.' However, instead of edging lower, USD traded in a tight range of 7.1674/7.1733, closing largely unchanged at 7.1723 (-0.03%). The price movements are likely part of a sideways trading phase. Today, we expect USD to trade between 7.1630 and 7.1780." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "There is not much to add to our update from yesterday (14 Jul, spot at 7.1730). As highlighted, USD is expected to trade in a range between 7.1550 and 7.1920' for now."

Yesterday, the price of Brent crude oil climbed above $71 per barrel for the first time since the attacks between Israel and Iran, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Barbara Lambrecht notes.

Yesterday, the price of Brent crude oil climbed above $71 per barrel for the first time since the attacks between Israel and Iran, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Barbara Lambrecht notes. Russia's oil exports have already weakened"One reason for this were China's strong crude oil imports (see below), the other was US President Trump's announcement of a 'major statement' on further action against Russia. Tighter sanctions were feared. Ultimately, Trump gave Russia 50 days to end the war. Otherwise, punitive tariffs of 100% would be imposed on Russia's allies." "Secondary sanctions would threaten buyers of Russian oil, primarily China and India. The announcement was met with relief. On the one hand, the feared (short-term) shortage of oil supplies due to new immediate sanctions has been averted. On the other hand, the threat is so massive that it is only credible to a limited extent. The price of Brent crude oil slipped back below $70 per barrel.""However, it should be noted that Russia's oil exports have already weakened, according to the IEA. At 7.23 million barrels per day, oil exports marked the lowest June-Level since 2021. This raises the question of whether Russia can maintain its production capacity."

Gold (XAU/USD) correction has been limited at $3,340, and the precious metal is retracing previous losses on Tuesday, approaching three-week highs at $3,380 as US Treasury yields and the US Dollar pull back from recent highs ahead of the US CPI release.The US Dollar Index, which measures the value o

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The US Dollar Index, which measures the value of the USD against six major currencies, is trading 0.15% lower on the day after a three-day rally. Investors are bracing for a significant increase in inflation amid pressure from US President Trump to cut interest rates, which might increase if the upside risks for inflation forecasted by the bank do not materialise.Technical analysis: XAU/USD consolidating halfway through the recent rangeThe XAU/USD technical picture is cloudy, as the pair has been experiencing choppy and sideways trading for the last few months. Price action is currently hovering in the middle of the range, and technical indicators on the daily chart are indicating a lack of a clear trend.

The 4-hour chart shows a moderate positive stance, with the RSI steady above the 50 level and downside attempts finding buyers so far. Bulls are focusing on the July 14 high, at $3,375, which is closing the path towards the June 18 and 23 highs, at the $3,400 area, and the June 16 peak, at $3,450. 

On the downside, a retreat below the July 14 low at $3,340 might find support at the July 10 low at $3,3120 and the July 9 low, at $3,285, ahead of the May 28 and June 30 lows, at $3,245. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

Dow Jones futures trade quietly during the European trading session on Tuesday as investors await quarterly results from a number of United States (US) commercial banks and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Dow Jones futures flatten ahead of US banks’ Q2 results and the US CPI data for June.US midcap stocks are outperforming blue-chip companies as earnings season kicks offMarkets.The Fed could support keeping interest rates at their current levels if the inflation data turns out hotter-than-expected.Dow Jones futures trade quietly during the European trading session on Tuesday as investors await quarterly results from a number of United States (US) commercial banks and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.At the time of writing, Dow Jones futures trade flat around 44,470. S&P 500 futures jump 0.45% to near 6,300. Significant gains in the 500-stock basket suggest strong demand for shares, which are moderately volatile.US banking giants: JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo are scheduled to release their second-quarter earnings for the current year. According to IG Markets, Citigroup is expected to show a slight increase in revenues, while Wells Fargo is anticipated to post flat numbers. Meanwhile, JPMorgan Chase is expected to report a decline in overall revenues.On the data front, US CPI data will be the major highlight as investors will gauge cues about how much the latest sectoral tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump are influencing inflationary pressures.As measured by the CPI, the US headline inflation is expected to have grown by 2.7% on year, faster than 2.4% in May. In the same period, the core CPI – which excludes volatile food and energy prices – rose at a faster pace of 3%, compared to the prior release of 2.8%. On month, both headline and the core CPI are estimated to have risen 0.3%, faster than the former reading of 0.1%.Signs of accelerating price pressures would discourage Federal Reserve (Fed) officials from supporting interest rate cuts in the near term. This would be in contrast with President Trump’s ambitions, who has criticized the Fed several times, especially Chairman Jerome Powell, for not bringing interest rates down.On Monday, US President Trump criticized Fed Powell again for maintaining a restrictive monetary policy stance, stating the interest rates should be reduced to 1% or below. "We should be at 1%. We should be less than 1%," Trump said, Fox Business reported.   Dow Jones FAQs What is the Dow Jones? The Dow Jones Industrial Average, one of the oldest stock market indices in the world, is compiled of the 30 most traded stocks in the US. The index is price-weighted rather than weighted by capitalization. It is calculated by summing the prices of the constituent stocks and dividing them by a factor, currently 0.152. The index was founded by Charles Dow, who also founded the Wall Street Journal. In later years it has been criticized for not being broadly representative enough because it only tracks 30 conglomerates, unlike broader indices such as the S&P 500. What factors impact the Dow Jones Industrial Average? Many different factors drive the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). The aggregate performance of the component companies revealed in quarterly company earnings reports is the main one. US and global macroeconomic data also contributes as it impacts on investor sentiment. The level of interest rates, set by the Federal Reserve (Fed), also influences the DJIA as it affects the cost of credit, on which many corporations are heavily reliant. Therefore, inflation can be a major driver as well as other metrics which impact the Fed decisions. What is Dow Theory? Dow Theory is a method for identifying the primary trend of the stock market developed by Charles Dow. A key step is to compare the direction of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and the Dow Jones Transportation Average (DJTA) and only follow trends where both are moving in the same direction. Volume is a confirmatory criteria. The theory uses elements of peak and trough analysis. Dow’s theory posits three trend phases: accumulation, when smart money starts buying or selling; public participation, when the wider public joins in; and distribution, when the smart money exits. How can I trade the DJIA? There are a number of ways to trade the DJIA. One is to use ETFs which allow investors to trade the DJIA as a single security, rather than having to buy shares in all 30 constituent companies. A leading example is the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA). DJIA futures contracts enable traders to speculate on the future value of the index and Options provide the right, but not the obligation, to buy or sell the index at a predetermined price in the future. Mutual funds enable investors to buy a share of a diversified portfolio of DJIA stocks thus providing exposure to the overall index.
 

Further US Dollar (USD) strength is not ruled out against Japanese Yen (JPY); negative divergence suggests any advance is unlikely to break above 148.05.

Further US Dollar (USD) strength is not ruled out against Japanese Yen (JPY); negative divergence suggests any advance is unlikely to break above 148.05. In the longer run, USD view remains positive; overbought conditions suggest a slower pace of advance, and 148.05 may not come into the picture so soon, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. USD view remains positive24-HOUR VIEW: "USD soared to a high of 147.51 last Friday. Yesterday (Monday), we indicated that 'while further USD strength is not ruled out, any advance is likely part of a higher range of 146.75/147.60.' We pointed out that USD 'is unlikely to break clearly above 147.60 or below 146.75.' However, after dipping to a low of 146.84, USD rose and broke above 147.60, reaching a high of 147.78. While we still do not rule out further USD strength, apparent negative divergence suggests any advance is unlikely to break above the major resistance at 148.05. Support is at 147.40; a break below 147.20 could potentially trigger a deeper pullback." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We turned positive on USD one week ago, 08 Jul, when it was at 146.15 (see annotations in the chart below). Tracking the subsequent advance, we pointed out the following yesterday (14 Jul, spot at 147.70): 'While we maintain our positive view, overbought conditions suggest a slower pace of advance, and the next major resistance at 148.05 (near last month’s high) may not come into the picture so soon. However, if USD breaks below 146.30 (‘strong support’ level), it would mean that USD is not strengthening further.' We stand by our view but are raising the ‘strong support’ level to 146.70."

The International Energy Agency has slightly lowered its forecasts for oil demand. It expects an increase of 700,000 barrels per day for this year and next. This is the smallest increase since the slump in 2020 during the coronavirus pandemic.

The International Energy Agency has slightly lowered its forecasts for oil demand. It expects an increase of 700,000 barrels per day for this year and next. This is the smallest increase since the slump in 2020 during the coronavirus pandemic. However, the most attention was drawn to the IEA's report of a sharp increase in Saudi Arabia's oil production in June by 700,000 barrels per day to 9.8 million barrels per day. This put production a whopping 430,000 barrels per day above the agreed level, Commerzbank's commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes. Saudi output surges, OPEC+ unity at risk"This means that Saudi Arabia had already produced more in June than would be permitted after the significant production increases in July and August. The high production figure also came as a surprise because the production surveys conducted by Bloomberg and Reuters had shown significantly lower figures within the agreed volume of 9.37 million barrels per day. The IEA attributes the significantly higher figure to an increase in net exports of 500,000 barrels per day and crude oil processing of 300,000 barrels per day.""It is also noteworthy that Saudi Arabia is said to have asked OPEC to report lower production figures for June in order to meet the production target. This was reported by Bloomberg, citing people familiar with the matter. Thus, lower production figures in the OPEC monthly report do not necessarily indicate actual lower production volumes." "The question now is whether this figure will turn out to be a one-off outlier or, as in the case of the United Arab Emirates, a permanent deviation in production volume compared to other data providers. A permanent significant deviation by Saudi Arabia from its production target would jeopardize the cohesion of OPEC+, because other countries with free production capacity could then increase their production without consultation."

New Zealand Dollar (NZD) could test 0.5950 against US Dollar (USD); a sustained break below this level is unlikely. In the longer run, price action indicates that further NZD weakness is likely; the level to watch is 0.5950, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

New Zealand Dollar (NZD) could test 0.5950 against US Dollar (USD); a sustained break below this level is unlikely. In the longer run, price action indicates that further NZD weakness is likely; the level to watch is 0.5950, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. Price action indicates that further NZD weakness is likely24-HOUR VIEW: "The following are excerpts from our update yesterday: 'NZD may edge lower and test the support at 0.5985. A sustained break below this level is unlikely. The major support at 0.5950 is also unlikely to come under threat. Resistance is at 0.6025; a breach of 0.6040 would indicate that the current mild downward pressure has eased.' NZD subsequently rose to a high of 0.6014, and then in a surprising move, dropped sharply to a low of 0.5969. Downward momentum is increasing, and today, NZD could test the support at 0.5950. This time around, a sustained break below 0.5950 appears unlikely. The next support at 0.5925 is also unlikely to come under threat. Resistance is at 0.5990, followed by 0.6010." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Our most recent narrative was from one week ago (08 Jul, spot at 0.6015), wherein 'the price action indicates that further NZD weakness is likely, and the level to watch is 0.5950.' After range trading for several days, NZD dropped sharply to a low of 0.5969 yesterday. The price action continues to suggest NZD could weaken to 0.5950. However, the ‘strong resistance’ level is now at 0.6030 from 0.6060 previously."

The world is shifting from a US-led liberal order to a multipolar order based on ‘might makes right’. Trump’s foreign policy rejects multilateralism in favour of a zero-sum game of ‘great power collusion’.

The world is shifting from a US-led liberal order to a multipolar order based on ‘might makes right’. Trump’s foreign policy rejects multilateralism in favour of a zero-sum game of ‘great power collusion’. Future scenarios could include continued multilateralism without the US, or a parallel China-led system, Standard Chartered's economist Philippe Dauba-Pantanacce reports. Might makes right"As Geopolitics conflict and instability dominate the news cycle, we take a step back to put current events into the broader context of the changing global world order. This transition has been underway for years and is highly volatile; as the world becomes increasingly multipolar, it has yet to find a clear new equilibrium, giving rise to increased armed conflicts and Geopolitics competition. The gradual economic, political and military rise of EM powers has coincided with the progressive withdrawal of the US from its role as the leader of a Western-led order. This shift has also coincided with an increase in violent conflict and other crises. While US disengagement with the rest of the world started under the Obama presidency, it has taken a different – much sharper – turn in the Trump era.""Past historical periods when the world lacked a single dominant power may provide clues to what the new order could look like. But the path is uncertain, both in its direction and its ability to deliver a new stable equilibrium. Some scholars have converged around the idea of regional blocs with shared interests, replacing the global convergence that characterised the post-World War II era. Others see the emergence of spheres of influence, with ‘might makes right’ as the guiding principle.""Historical precedent shows that such a decentralised model is inherently flawed, as it lacks mechanisms for peaceful dispute resolution and tends to foster conditions for imperialistic expansion, while failing to resolve ideological differences. This favours instability and conflict – something that the post-WWII order being challenged today has aimed to contain (despite its flaws and criticism that it is centred on Western values)."

Monday was relatively quiet in terms of news surrounding US tariff policy, at least when compared to last week. The new deadline has been set, and now it's time to get back to the negotiating table. However, it should be clear that the next two weeks will not be easy.

Monday was relatively quiet in terms of news surrounding US tariff policy, at least when compared to last week. The new deadline has been set, and now it's time to get back to the negotiating table. However, it should be clear that the next two weeks will not be easy. Not only because, as we know, only three more or less deals have been reached in the more than 90 days since Liberation Day. EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič also indicated yesterday that there are still major differences in individual positions between the US and the EU. At first glance, this seems to contradict statements made in recent weeks, where it was repeatedly said that the two sides had moved closer together. But this does not have to be a contradiction, Commerzbank's FX analyst Volkmar Baur notes. USD can react to higher inflation with some weakness"It should be remembered that such negotiations are binary. Either you reach a 100% agreement or you don't. You can negotiate for a long time and agree on 95% of everything. However, if you cannot resolve the last few differences, then there will be no finalization and the deal will fall through. That is why the US government may well be right when it claims that it is close to reaching an agreement with many countries. At the same time, however, this does not necessarily mean that even a single additional deal will ultimately be finalised.""Meanwhile, a US deal with India is likely to have become more difficult yesterday. Donald Trump announced yesterday that he intends to impose 100% ‘secondary tariffs’ on Russia in 50 days. This means that all countries that trade with Russia (or only import oil from Russia, it is not yet clear exactly) will be subject to an (additional?) tariff of 100% if they want to export to the US. China and India in particular are known to have increased their imports of Russian oil since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which is why these tariffs are also directed against them.""For the US Dollar, however, it is no longer so easy to assess what higher inflation could mean. In normal times, one would certainly assume that this would lead to a tighter monetary policy and therefore support the USD. However, there are now question marks over the Fed's response function, i.e. it is not entirely clear how the Fed would deal with higher inflation. It is therefore quite conceivable that the USD could react to higher inflation with some weakness today, as this would further increase tensions between the government, which is calling for a looser monetary policy, and the central bank."

Australian Dollar (AUD) is under mild downward pressure against US Dollar (USD); it may edge lower but is unlikely to reach 0.6515. In the longer run, AUD is likely still trading in a range of 0.6515/0.6615, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Australian Dollar (AUD) is under mild downward pressure against US Dollar (USD); it may edge lower but is unlikely to reach 0.6515. In the longer run, AUD is likely still trading in a range of 0.6515/0.6615, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. AUD unlikely can reach 0.651524-HOUR VIEW: "Yesterday, we expected AUD to 'trade between 0.6545 and 0.6595.' AUD traded in a narrower range than expected (0.6543/0.6588), closing on a soft note at 0.6545 (-0.44%). The slight increase in momentum indicates AUD may edge lower today, but any decline is unlikely to reach 0.6515. Resistance is at 0.6560; a breach of 0.6575 would suggest that the current mild downward pressure has faded." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Our most recent narrative was from last Friday (11 Jul, spot at 0.6565), in which we noted that 'while the current price movements are likely part of a range trading phase, the firm underlying tone suggests AUD could trade in a higher range of 0.6515/0.6615 from here.' While our expected range remains intact, the underlying tone has softened. That said, AUD is likely still trading in a 0.6515/0.6615 range."

Responding to US President Donald Trump’s tariff threat, the Kremlin said on Tuesday, “Trump's statement is serious, we need time to analyse it.”

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Decisions by Washington and Brussels are seen by Ukraine as a signal to continue the war.

Russia is ready for the next round of talks with Ukraine.

But there have been no proposals from the Ukrainian side so far.Market reactionThese headlines have little to no impact on the US Dollar Index (DXY) or risk sentiment, as the gauge loses 0.16% on the day to trade near 98.00, as of writing. Risk sentiment FAQs What do the terms"risk-on" and "risk-off" mean when referring to sentiment in financial markets? In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest. What are the key assets to track to understand risk sentiment dynamics? Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-on"? The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-off"? The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.

At first glance, the Chinese figures once again look impressive. GDP grew by 5.2% in the second quarter compared with the previous year, and industrial production even rose by 6.8% in June – significantly faster than most analysts had expected, Commerzbank's FX analyst Volkmar Baur notes.

At first glance, the Chinese figures once again look impressive. GDP grew by 5.2% in the second quarter compared with the previous year, and industrial production even rose by 6.8% in June – significantly faster than most analysts had expected, Commerzbank's FX analyst Volkmar Baur notes. PBoC to have no problems keeping USD/CNY stable "However, the Chinese data also reveal a number of weaknesses, particularly on the demand side. Retail sales disappointed once again with year-on-year growth of only 4.8%, and investment figures for June were well below expectations. Officially, only figures covering the entire period since the beginning of the year are published. However, if June is isolated, it can be estimated that investment probably fell last month compared with the previous year.""This is due in particular to the continuing weakness in the real estate market, where there are still no signs of improvement. However, weak domestic demand continues to drive China's net exports higher. Data released on Monday showed a further increase in the trade surplus to 114.8 billion USD, the second-highest surplus ever recorded after January this year.""As a result, Chinese state banks have been able to continue building up foreign exchange reserves in recent weeks, even though the central bank has reduced them slightly. Overall, it can therefore be assumed that the Chinese banking system has prevented a stronger appreciation of the CNY in recent weeks. The PBoC should therefore have no problems keeping USD/CNY stable in the coming weeks, if it so wishes."

US Dollar (USD) traded mixed with strength seen vs. most Asian FX including THB, IDR, PHP while USD was modestly softer vs. CHF, EUR and precious metals. DXY was last at 98 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

US Dollar (USD) traded mixed with strength seen vs. most Asian FX including THB, IDR, PHP while USD was modestly softer vs. CHF, EUR and precious metals. DXY was last at 98 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Bullish momentum on daily chart intact"Focus remains on US CPI tonight (830pm SGT). Any slippage in data may serve as a good entry point to fade the USD bounce but we caution that a firmer print may see USD extend its move higher." "Elsewhere on geopolitics, President Trump announced plans to arm Ukraine and also threatened to impose secondary tariffs or more sanctions if Russia fails to reach a peace deal with Ukraine by early September." "Bullish momentum on daily chart intact but rise in RSI moderated. Resistance at 98.50, 98.80 (50 DMA). Support at 97.80 (21 DMA), 97.20 levels. Overall, we still expect USD to trade weaker as USD diversification/ re-allocation trend, Fed cut cycle take centre-stage. US policy unpredictability, and concerns of about the rising trajectory of debt and deficits in the medium term should continue to underpin the broad decline in the USD."

Crude Oil Prices reverted to previous gains on Monday, and dropped to session lows at $65.40 on Tuesday’s early trading, as Trump gave a 50-day deadline to apply further sanctions to Russia, which eased market concerns about supply.The price of the US benchmark West Texas Intermediate reached three-

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The price of the US benchmark West Texas Intermediate reached three-week highs at $68.50 during Monday’s European session as the market awaited a “major statement on Russia”, anticipated by the US President on Friday.Upbeat data from China eases fears of a decline in demandOn the other hand, the stronger-than-expected Gross Domestic Product and Industrial Production figures seen in China have calmed investors’ fears about a decline in demand from the world’s major Oil importer.Recent data revealed that China ramped up crude purchases by 7.4% on the year in May, to 12.14 million barrels, the highest level in almost two years. These data, coupled with OPEC projections of an increase in demand in the third quarter of the year, are keeping Oil prices from retrearing further.

Apart from that, market sources suggest that OPEC+ countries might be nearing the end of their supply hikes and that the world’s major Oil producers might be considering a pause in October. This is also another source of support for Crude prices.  WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

India Trade Deficit Government dipped from previous $21.88B to $-18.78B in June

The AUD/USD pair jumps to near 0.6570 during the European trading session on Tuesday. The Aussie pair gains sharply as the Australian Dollar (AUD) outperforms its peers, following the release of upbeat China’s Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data earlier in the day.

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The Aussie pair gains sharply as the Australian Dollar (AUD) outperforms its peers, following the release of upbeat China’s Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data earlier in the day. Australian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.16% -0.17% -0.06% -0.11% -0.29% -0.34% -0.37% EUR 0.16% -0.08% 0.09% 0.03% -0.17% -0.24% -0.20% GBP 0.17% 0.08% 0.16% 0.11% -0.12% -0.18% 0.03% JPY 0.06% -0.09% -0.16% -0.08% -0.23% -0.34% -0.23% CAD 0.11% -0.03% -0.11% 0.08% -0.17% -0.29% -0.08% AUD 0.29% 0.17% 0.12% 0.23% 0.17% -0.08% 0.09% NZD 0.34% 0.24% 0.18% 0.34% 0.29% 0.08% 0.21% CHF 0.37% 0.20% -0.03% 0.23% 0.08% -0.09% -0.21% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that the economy expanded 5.2% in the April-June period compared to the same quarter of the previous year, faster than estimates of 5.1%, but slower than the 5.4% growth seen in the previous quarter. On a quarterly basis, the Chinese economy grew by 1.1%.Meanwhile, Industrial Production surprisingly rose at a faster pace of 6.8% in June. Economists anticipated the factory data to have grown moderately by 5.6% against 5.8% in May.Strong Chinese data strengthens the Australian Dollar (AUD), given that the Australian economy relies heavily on its exports to Beijing.In the United States (US), investors await the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. The US CPI report is expected to show that the headline inflation rose at a faster pace of 2.7% on year, compared to a 2.4% growth seen in May. In the same period, the core CPI – which excludes volatile food and energy prices – is estimated to have accelerated to 3% from the prior release of 2.8%.Signs of price pressures accelerating would discourage Federal Reserve (Fed) officials from endorsing interest rate cuts.  Related news US CPI data set to show inflation picked up pace in June as impact from tariffs emerges Australian Dollar remains stronger as US Dollar weakens ahead of CPI data China’s NBS: Economic performance in the first half of the year is stable, with steady progress

Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Tuesday, according to FXStreet data.

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The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, stood at 87.88 on Tuesday, up from 87.72 on Monday. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

USD/CHF has retraced its recent gains registered in the previous session, trading around 0.7960 during the European hours on Tuesday. The pair holds losses ahead of June's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures due later in the day.

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The pair holds losses ahead of June's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures due later in the day.The US inflation report will likely provide new ideas surrounding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary outlook. The US CPI is anticipated to increase by 2.7% year-over-year in June, following the 2.4% rise in May. The monthly CPI is likely to climb by 0.3%, up from 0.1% prior. Meanwhile, Core CPI is likely to increase by 3% YoY, and monthly core inflation may climb to 0.3%, up from 0.1% prior.The USD/CHF pair faces challenges as the Swiss Franc (CHF) receives support amid increased safe-haven demand, driven by renewed trade tensions. This follows the US President Donald Trump’s latest threat to impose “very severe” tariffs on Russia if no peace deal is reached within 50 days. Moreover, Switzerland is still awaiting an official US customs letter; however, a draft trade agreement indicates the country may receive preferential treatment, potentially exempting it from pharma-related tariffs.The recent Swiss hotter inflation report for June weakens the likelihood of further policy easing by the Swiss National Bank (SNB). SNB officials are expected to keep the interest rate unchanged at 0% in September, with many analysts projecting it will likely stay at that level through 2026. Swiss Franc FAQs What key factors drive the Swiss Franc? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone. Why is the Swiss Franc considered a safe-haven currency? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in. How do decisions of the Swiss National Bank impact the Swiss Franc? The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF. How does economic data influence the value of the Swiss Franc? Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate. How does the Eurozone monetary policy affect the Swiss Franc? As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.

The Eurozone industrial sector activity outperformed in May, the latest data published by Eurostat showed on Tuesday.

The Eurozone industrial sector activity outperformed in May, the latest data published by Eurostat showed on Tuesday.Industrial output in the old continent rose 1.7% month-over-month (MoM) in May, versus the expected 0.9% rebound and a 2.2% decline reported in April.Annually, Eurozone Industrial Production jumped 3.7% in the same period, as against April’s 0.2%. Data surprised markets to the upside, with a 2.9% reading projected.EUR/USD reaction to the Eurozone Industrial Production dataEurozone industrial figures underpin the Euro, as EUR/USD nears 1.1700, up 0.21% on the day.

The headline German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index jumped to 52.7 in July from 47.5 in June, beating the market expectations of 50.

Germany’s ZEW Economic Sentiment Index climbs to 52.7 in July.EUR/USD holds gains just below 1.1700 after German and Eurozone ZEW surveys.The headline German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index jumped to 52.7 in July from 47.5 in June, beating the market expectations of 50.The Current Situation Index improved to -59.5 in the same period, as against the June reading of -72. The market forecast was for -65.5 reading.The Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index came in at 36.1 in July from 35.3 in June. Data missed the estimated print of 37.8.

Eurozone ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment registered at 36.1, below expectations (37.8) in July

Germany ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment came in at 52.7, above expectations (50) in July

Eurozone Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) came in at 1.7%, above forecasts (0.9%) in May

Eurozone Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) came in at 3.7%, above forecasts (2.9%) in May

Germany ZEW Survey – Current Situation above expectations (-65.5) in July: Actual (-59.5)

USD/CAD edges lower after two days of gains, trading around 1.3690 during the European hours on Tuesday. The pair depreciates as the US Dollar (USD) remains subdued ahead of June's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures.

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FX markets have had a quiet start to the week. The risks of new Russian sanctions highlighted here yesterday were actually less harsh than expected in that they gave Russia 50 days to reach a deal (ceasefire with Ukraine). Energy prices ended a little lower, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

FX markets have had a quiet start to the week. The risks of new Russian sanctions highlighted here yesterday were actually less harsh than expected in that they gave Russia 50 days to reach a deal (ceasefire with Ukraine). Energy prices ended a little lower, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes. Bias for DXY to edge to fill a gap to 98.35"And overnight, we've probably seen a couple of risk-positive developments. China's second-quarter GDP was a little stronger than expected, and Nvidia seems confident it will be able to start exporting its H20 chips to China again – confirming a thaw in US-China relations. Equity futures are called a little higher today. On the subject of equities, we start to see second quarter US earnings releases today, with JPM, Citi and Wells Fargo all reporting. Expectations are that trading income will offset moribund investment banking and deliver some decent results.""The main event, however, is the release of June CPI. Our rate strategy colleagues discuss its impact on their markets here. For FX, the reaction should be balanced in that any higher/lower deviation from the 0.3% MoM consensus should lead to a higher/lower dollar. For reference, the US interest rate curve still prices 16bp of Fed easing in September, a move we think will be priced out over the coming months.""We have a slight bias that DXY can edge to fill a gap to 98.35. Though a sub-consensus CPI would prove a setback. Elsewhere, we've got Canadian June CPI today. Any downside miss can bring forward the expectations of the final cut in the Bank of Canada cycle and soften the CAD."

The Euro appreciated for the third consecutive day on Tuesday, to reach levels above 172.60 for the first time since July last year, with the safe-haven Yen weighed by a somewhat brighter market mood on Tuesday.

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These views have undermined support for the safe haven Japanese Yen, which is one of the worst G8 performers on Tuesday.

In the Eurozone, the ongoing trade talks between EU and US representatives, and the positive comments from the European side, are feeding hopes that the 30% levy announced by President Trump over the weekend can still be avoided. This feeling is contributing to buoy the Euro against its main peers on Tuesday. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

Further Pound Sterling (GBP) weakness is not ruled out against US Dollar (USD); any declines are unlikely to reach the major support at 1.3375. In the longer run, the outlook for GBP remains negative; a move to 1.3375 is now expected, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Further Pound Sterling (GBP) weakness is not ruled out against US Dollar (USD); any declines are unlikely to reach the major support at 1.3375. In the longer run, the outlook for GBP remains negative; a move to 1.3375 is now expected, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. A move to 1.3375 is now expected24-HOUR VIEW: "Following the sharp drop in GBP last Friday, we indicated yesterday (Monday) that 'the sharp drop has led to an increase in downward momentum.' We were of the view that GBP 'could test the significant support level at 1.3445.' However, we pointed out, 'Given that conditions are deeply oversold, a clear break below this level is unlikely.' The anticipated decline exceeded our expectation, as GBP dropped to a low of 1.3425. While further GBP weakness is not ruled out, conditions remain oversold, and any declines are unlikely to reach the major support at 1.3375 (expect 1.3400 to provide support as well). To sustain the oversold momentum, GBP must hold below 1.3475 (with minor resistance at 1.3455)." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "Yesterday (14 Jul, spot at 1.3495), we reiterated our negative GBP outlook, indicating that 'the next technical target is at 1.3445.' We also pointed out that 'if GBP were to break and hold below 1.3445, it may trigger a deeper decline towards June’s low, near 1.3375.' We did not quite expect GBP to breach 1.3445 so soon, as it fell to a low of 1.3425. The outlook for GBP remains negative, and we now expect a move to 1.3375. On the upside, should GBP break above 1.3520 (‘strong resistance’ was at 1.3575 yesterday), it would mean that the weakness from early this month (see annotations in the chart below) has stabilised."

USD/JPY rose amid rise in UST yields, tariff implications, sell-off in longer-dated JGBs and upper house election uncertainty. USD/JPY was last at 147.69 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

USD/JPY rose amid rise in UST yields, tariff implications, sell-off in longer-dated JGBs and upper house election uncertainty. USD/JPY was last at 147.69 levels, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Bullish momentum on daily chart intact "Struggle in the upper house has resulted in pledges of spending hikes and tax cuts in attempt to shore up votes. Moody’s has earlier warned that election results may impact fiscal health and ratings. Bullish momentum on daily chart intact while rise in RSI shows tentative signs of turning near overbought conditions." "Next resistance at 148.20, 149.40/70 levels (200 DMA, 50% fibo retracement of 2025 high to low). Support at 147.15 (38.2% fibo), 146.20 levels. US CPI tonight may also have influence over USD/JPY, with hotter print likely to see the pair extend its move while a softer than expected print may slow the recent rally."

ICE Brent settled a little more than 1.6% lower yesterday, taking prices back below US$70/bbl, despite President Trump’s “major statement” on Russia. Trump threatened to impose secondary tariffs of 100% on Russia if President Putin didn’t make a deal within 50 days to end the war in Ukraine.

ICE Brent settled a little more than 1.6% lower yesterday, taking prices back below US$70/bbl, despite President Trump’s “major statement” on Russia. Trump threatened to impose secondary tariffs of 100% on Russia if President Putin didn’t make a deal within 50 days to end the war in Ukraine. The lack of any immediate action and the belief that these threats won’t be carried out help to explain the market reaction, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.OPEC releases its latest monthly Oil"However, if Trump does follow through, and the tariff is implemented effectively, it would drastically change the outlook for the Oil market. Russia exports more than 7m b/d of crude Oil and refined products. China, India and Turkey are the largest buyers of Russian crude Oil. They would need to weigh the benefits of buying discounted Russian crude Oil against the cost of their exports to the US facing prohibitively high tariffs. If effectively enforced, the global market would be pushed into a large deficit. OPEC’s spare production capacity would not be able to fill the entire shortfall. This would present significant upside to Oil prices. Given Trump’s desire for low Oil prices, we don’t believe Trump would be keen to follow through with this threat.""Trade data from China for June showed a rebound in crude Oil imports. Crude Oil flows increased by a little more than 7% year on year to 12.2m b/d, which was also up more than 10% month on month. This leaves cumulative imports so far this year 1.4% higher YoY. The stronger imports in June were likely a result of more refineries returning to operation following spring maintenance.""OPEC will release its latest monthly Oil market report later today. Last week, the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) revised lower its demand growth estimates for this year. OPEC has held a more bullish demand outlook. So, it will be interesting to see if the group makes any downward revisions."

Risk for Euro (EUR) remains on the downside against US Dollar (USD); lackluster momentum continues to suggest that 1.1625 is likely out of reach. In the longer run, the risk of EUR declining to 1.1625 is increasing, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Risk for Euro (EUR) remains on the downside against US Dollar (USD); lackluster momentum continues to suggest that 1.1625 is likely out of reach. In the longer run, the risk of EUR declining to 1.1625 is increasing, UOB Group's FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note. 1.1625 is likely out of reach24-HOUR VIEW: "In the early Asian session yesterday, when EUR was at 1.1675, we stated that 'the risk for EUR is on the downside.' However, we noted that 'it does not appear to have enough momentum to reach the major support at 1.1625.' We also pointed out that 'resistance is at 1.1700, followed by 1.1720.' EUR then rose to 1.1697, dipped to 1.1653, and then closed at 1.1663 (-0.22%). While the risk for EUR remains on the downside, the lackluster momentum continues to suggest that 1.1625 is likely out of reach (there is a minor support at 1.1640). On the upside, resistance levels are at 1.1685 and 1.1705." 1-3 WEEKS VIEW: "We have held a negative EUR view since early last week. In our latest narrative from last Friday (11 Jul, spot at 1.1685), we highlighted that 'although there is still no significant increase in momentum, only a breach of 1.1755 (‘strong resistance’ level) would indicate that the current downward risk has faded.' We also highlighted that 'until then, if EUR were to close below 1.1660, it could potentially trigger a move to 1.1625.' Although EUR closed at 1.1663 yesterday, the risk of EUR declining to 1.1625 is increasing. The downside risk will increase in the coming days as long as the ‘strong resistance’ at 1.1735 (level previously at 1.1755) is not breached."

In quiet markets, the EUR/GBP run-up to 0.8700 has been notable, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes

In quiet markets, the EUR/GBP run-up to 0.8700 has been notable, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes EUR/GBP to grind towards 0.88 a lot sooner"This softness in sterling has not been driven by the fiscal side. In fact, the 10-year Gilt-Bund spread has narrowed back into 187bp – the tightest since early April. No, it has been the narrowing in shorter-dated interest rate spreads that is weighing on the pound. Here, the two-year EUR:GBP swap differential has narrowed back into 157bp as investors question whether the Bank of England will have to ease policy faster than once per quarter." "On that subject, we'll hear from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey tonight at 22CET as he delivers his annual Mansion House speech alongside Chancellor Rachel Reeves. Expect Governor Bailey to reiterate a position – similar to the Fed – that faster easing is possible if the labour market deteriorates.""On this latter point, after tomorrow's release of June CPI, Thursday sees some important UK labour market data. Should the May payroll release of -109k stay unrevised and should there be further payroll declines in June, UK rates and sterling could see another leg lower. Our forecast preference had been for EUR/GBP to grind towards 0.88 over the coming quarters. That could come a lot sooner if the labour market weakens."

LME Copper prices fell below $9,600/t yesterday as requests to withdraw Copper from the LME warehouses dropped by 25,100 tonnes to 15,875 tonnes.

LME Copper prices fell below $9,600/t yesterday as requests to withdraw Copper from the LME warehouses dropped by 25,100 tonnes to 15,875 tonnes. This is the biggest decline since March 2019, driven by the re-warranting of metal in South Korea’s Gwanyang port and Taiwan, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.US buyers likely to start working through their inventories"The drop comes ahead of a 50% tariff on US Copper imports from 1 August. This is the first time Copper will face tariffs in the US. In anticipation, traders have shifted metal from global warehouses to the US, with Copper holdings in Comex-registered warehouses more than doubling in the second quarter." "The US is reliant on Copper imports for its domestic consumption Imminent tariffs mean this race to ship metal to the US is now coming to an end. This will be bearish for LME prices, with US buyers now likely to start working through their inventories."

Euro (EUR) consolidated overnight in absence of fresh catalyst while markets wait and see US CPI data for any tariff-related implications. EUR was last at 1.1675, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.

Euro (EUR) consolidated overnight in absence of fresh catalyst while markets wait and see US CPI data for any tariff-related implications. EUR was last at 1.1675, OCBC's FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. Risks remain skewed to the downside"Bearish momentum on daily chart intact while the decline in RSI moderated. Risks remain skewed to the downside for now. Next support at 1.1660 levels (21 DMA), 1.1620. If these levels break, then more downside may play out. Next big support at 1.1470 levels (50 DMA)." "Resistance at 1.1710, 1.1830 levels. For the day, we watch for details from French PM Bayrou with regards to defence spending."

EUR/USD is consolidating as investors price up the next trade move, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes.

EUR/USD is consolidating as investors price up the next trade move, ING's FX analyst Chris Turner notes. EUR/USD is sitting above modest support at 1.1650"So far, the bloc has refused to retaliate and hopes to negotiate its way out of the 30% tariffs imposed by President Trump at the weekend. Failure to get that rate negotiated lower (prior expectations were that it could be negotiated down to 10%) would look negative for the region. But clearly it's going to be a noisy couple of weeks, and one can't rule out the threat of even higher US tariffs as Washington tries to get the deal over the line.""For today, US CPI will be the main driver of EUR/USD. But before that, we'll get an update on German ZEW investor expectations. These should come in on the strong side as investors focus on the medium-term benefits of German fiscal expansion. On the subject of fiscal policy, France is still dealing with large budget deficits and Prime Minister Francois Bayrou is due to unveil his fiscal consolidation plan today, including EUR40bn of spending cuts. Let's keep an eye on French government bonds, where failure to deliver spending cuts seems to take its toll on local fixed income and FX.""EUR/USD is sitting above modest support at 1.1650. The FX options market prices a 59 pip EUR/USD range today. Let's see whether June US CPI can add a little momentum to this bull market correction."

The Pound treads water as the Yen loses momentum, with market sentiment improving.The bearish correction from last week's highs near 200.00, remains contained above 198.25 for now.On the upside, the Pound would need to clear Monday's top, at 198.80, to ease bearish pressure.The Pound is picking up o

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The bearish correction from last week's highs near 200.00, remains contained above 198.25 for now.
On the upside, the Pound would need to clear Monday's top, at 198.80, to ease bearish pressure.

The Pound is picking up on Tuesday, but so far remains trapped within Monday’s narrow trading range, at a short distance above the 198.25 support level. The pair is on a bearish correction from last week's highs, right below 200.00 within a broader bullish trend.

A brighter market mood is providing some support to the British Pound on Tuesday, to the detriment of the safe-haven Yen. Gross Domestic Product and Industrial Production data from China revealed that the world’s second-largest economy remains growing at a solid pace despite US tariffs, easing concerns about the uncertain outlook of international trade.Technical Analysis: Correcting lower from the 200.00 resistance areaThe GBP/JPY’s immediate trend remains negative, although the brighter market sentiment has eased bearish momentum. Price action remains contained below Monday’s high, at 198.80, although the 4-hour RSI has crossed above the 50 level that divides the bullish from the bearish territory.

The pair needs to break the mentioned 198.80 resistance area to ease bearish pressure and shift the focus towards the July 11 high, at 199.45, and the July 10 high, at 199.85.

On the flip side, a bearish reaction below the June 14 low at 198.25 would find support at the July 7 low, which crosses the bottom of the ascending channel, near 196.80.
Risk sentiment FAQs What do the terms"risk-on" and "risk-off" mean when referring to sentiment in financial markets? In the world of financial jargon the two widely used terms “risk-on” and “risk off'' refer to the level of risk that investors are willing to stomach during the period referenced. In a “risk-on” market, investors are optimistic about the future and more willing to buy risky assets. In a “risk-off” market investors start to ‘play it safe’ because they are worried about the future, and therefore buy less risky assets that are more certain of bringing a return, even if it is relatively modest. What are the key assets to track to understand risk sentiment dynamics? Typically, during periods of “risk-on”, stock markets will rise, most commodities – except Gold – will also gain in value, since they benefit from a positive growth outlook. The currencies of nations that are heavy commodity exporters strengthen because of increased demand, and Cryptocurrencies rise. In a “risk-off” market, Bonds go up – especially major government Bonds – Gold shines, and safe-haven currencies such as the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc and US Dollar all benefit. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-on"? The Australian Dollar (AUD), the Canadian Dollar (CAD), the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and minor FX like the Ruble (RUB) and the South African Rand (ZAR), all tend to rise in markets that are “risk-on”. This is because the economies of these currencies are heavily reliant on commodity exports for growth, and commodities tend to rise in price during risk-on periods. This is because investors foresee greater demand for raw materials in the future due to heightened economic activity. Which currencies strengthen when sentiment is "risk-off"? The major currencies that tend to rise during periods of “risk-off” are the US Dollar (USD), the Japanese Yen (JPY) and the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US Dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because in times of crisis investors buy US government debt, which is seen as safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to default. The Yen, from increased demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high proportion are held by domestic investors who are unlikely to dump them – even in a crisis. The Swiss Franc, because strict Swiss banking laws offer investors enhanced capital protection.

Silver price (XAG/USD) recovers its recent losses from the previous session, rebounds toward a 14-year high of $39.13, which was reached on Monday, and is trading around $38.40 per troy ounce during the European hours on Tuesday.

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Silver price gains ground as traders adopt caution ahead of June's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which may offer fresh impetus over the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary outlook.The Silver attracted sellers as Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell indicated that inflation is expected to rise over the summer, driven by tariff-related pressures. This has increased the likelihood of the Fed delaying interest rate cuts until later this year. Meanwhile, concerns over the Fed’s independence resurfaced as President Trump renewed his criticism of Powell, insisting that interest rates should be at 1% or lower.Moreover, the global trade concerns eased as Trump expressed willingness to engage in further tariff negotiations with the European Union (EU) and other key partners. However, traders would likely adopt caution following the US government’s decision, on Monday, to immediately impose a 17% duty on most imports of fresh tomatoes from Mexico after negotiations ended without an agreement to avert the tariff.However, the safe-haven demand for Silver increases due to renewed geopolitical tensions following the US President Donald Trump’s latest threat to impose “very severe” tariffs on Russia if no peace deal is reached within 50 days.President Trump, alongside NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, also confirmed that European allies will purchase billions of dollars’ worth of American-made weapons. These weapons include Patriot missile systems, which will be transferred to Ukraine in the coming weeks to tackle intensified Russian attacks. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

Statistics Canada will issue the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June on Tuesday. This will attract the market's attention since it will provide the Bank of Canada (BoC) fresh information on how inflation is changing, which they use to set interest rates.

.fxs-event-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-event-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-event-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:12px}.fxs-event-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-event-module-header{color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px;margin:0;padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;padding-right:32px}.fxs-event-module-header label{cursor:pointer;display:block}.fxs-event-module-header label:after,.fxs-event-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:17.6px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:20.8px;margin:4px 0 0 0}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title-description-wrapper{display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;padding-bottom:16px;margin-bottom:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar{padding:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-section{padding:0}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Canadian inflation is expected to tick higher in June.The headline Consumer Price Index is seen rising 1.9% YoY.The Canadian Dollar has embarked on a consolidative phase.Statistics Canada will issue the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June on Tuesday. This will attract the market's attention since it will provide the Bank of Canada (BoC) fresh information on how inflation is changing, which they use to set interest rates.Economists anticipate that headline inflation will rise to 1.9% in June, above May’s 1.7%. Inflation may have increased less than the 0.6% gain observed in May.The BoC will also issue its core inflation measurements, which exclude food and energy costs. In May, these primary indicators were 2.5% higher than in the same month the previous year.Even while there are indications that pricing pressure is reducing, analysts are still quite worried about the possibility of US tariffs causing domestic inflation to rise. Both markets and policymakers are anticipated to be circumspect in the coming weeks since the inflation forecast is now less clear.What can we expect from Canada’s inflation rate?The Bank of Canada kept its benchmark rate at 2.75% in June, broadly in line with investors’ expectations. Before thinking about any stimulus measures, the central bank wants to see how US tariffs affect the whole economy. Governor Tiff Macklem has expressed the possibility of additional reductions if trade issues worsen.It was noted that the upside surprise in April's Canadian core CPI data was primarily attributed to categories that are not typically affected by tariffs, specifically domestic services. It was noted that a flare-up at the onset of tariffs establishes a poor starting point for inflation trends later this year.During the press conference, Governor Macklem remarked on the challenges of interpreting tariff effects in the official CPI data and emphasised the dependency on soft data and insights from businesses that had already indicated rising costs.When is the Canada CPI data due, and how could it affect USD/CAD?On Tuesday at 12:30 GMT, Canada will release its April inflation figures. Markets are getting ready for inflationary pressure to resume.If inflation is higher than expected, it could confirm the idea that price pressure from tariffs is starting to show up. This situation could lead the Bank of Canada to adopt a more cautious approach, potentially strengthening the Canadian Dollar (CAD) and increasing expectations for further rate cuts, which would exert additional pressure on the Loonie.That being said, an unexpected rise in inflation isn't always positive news either. A sudden surge in inflation might make people worry about the Canadian economy's health, and strangely, this could also hurt the currency. In short, markets are paying careful attention—not only to the headline figure, but also to what it means for policy and growth in general.FXStreet's senior analyst, Pablo Piovano, said that the Canadian Dollar seems to have embarked on a range-bound theme, motivating USD/CAD to hover around the 1.3700 neighbourhood in the last few days.Piovano says that the occasional return of the selling bias might cause USD/CAD to go back to its 2025 bottom of 1.3538, which was set on June 16. After this level is broken, the next two levels might be the September 2024 low of 1.3418 (September 25) and the weekly low of 1.3358, reached on January 31, 2024.He says that if bulls become more confident, they might push spot up to its temporary barrier at the 55-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of 1.3725, then to the monthly ceiling of 1.3797 hit on June 23, and finally to the May top of 1.4015 set on May 13.Looking at the bigger picture, Piovano expects the bearish trend to prevail below its important 200-day SMA at 1.4039.He adds, "Also, the momentum indicators seem to be mixed: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is just above the 50 threshold, and the Average Directional Index (ADX) is below 16, which means that the current trend is losing some of its strength." Economic Indicator BoC Consumer Price Index Core (YoY) The BoC Consumer Price Index Core, released by the Bank of Canada (BoC) on a monthly basis, represents changes in prices for Canadian consumers by comparing the cost of a fixed basket of goods and services. It is considered a measure of underlying inflation as it excludes eight of the most-volatile components: fruits, vegetables, gasoline, fuel oil, natural gas, mortgage interest, intercity transportation and tobacco products. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Canadian Dollar (CAD), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Last release: Tue Jun 24, 2025 12:30 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 2.5% Consensus: - Previous: 2.5% Source: Statistics Canada Economic Indicator Consumer Price Index (YoY) The Consumer Price Index (CPI), released by Statistics Canada on a monthly basis, represents changes in prices for Canadian consumers by comparing the cost of a fixed basket of goods and services. The YoY reading compares prices in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the Canadian Dollar (CAD), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Tue Jul 15, 2025 12:30 Frequency: Monthly Consensus: 1.9% Previous: 1.7% Source: Statistics Canada

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is losing ground after registering gains in the previous four consecutive sessions and trading around 98.00 during the early European hours on Tuesday.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}The US Dollar Index could test the initial support at the nine-day EMA of $97.70.Short-term price momentum remains strong as DXY holds above the nine-day EMA.The primary barrier appears at the descending channel’s upper boundary around $98.60.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is losing ground after registering gains in the previous four consecutive sessions and trading around 98.00 during the early European hours on Tuesday.The bearish bias seems persistent, suggested by the technical analysis of the daily chart, which shows the index remaining within a descending channel pattern. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around the 50 level, indicating a neutral bias. However, the short-term price momentum is stronger as the DXY remains above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA).On the downside, the DXY could find initial support at the nine-day EMA of $97.70. A break below this level could weaken the short-term price momentum and put downward pressure on the US Dollar Index to navigate the region around the three-year low at $96.38, recorded on July 1, followed by the lower boundary of the descending channel around 95.50.The US Dollar Index may test the primary barrier at the descending channel’s upper boundary around $98.60, followed by the 50-day EMA at $98.75. A break above this crucial resistance zone could strengthen the medium-term price momentum and support the DXY to approach the two-month high at $99.42, which was reached on June 23.US Dollar Index: Daily Chart US Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the Swiss Franc. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.22% -0.12% 0.01% -0.09% -0.18% -0.21% -0.42% EUR 0.22% 0.03% 0.19% 0.11% 0.00% -0.05% -0.19% GBP 0.12% -0.03% 0.14% 0.08% -0.05% -0.11% -0.07% JPY -0.01% -0.19% -0.14% -0.12% -0.18% -0.27% -0.34% CAD 0.09% -0.11% -0.08% 0.12% -0.08% -0.19% -0.15% AUD 0.18% -0.01% 0.05% 0.18% 0.08% -0.07% -0.08% NZD 0.21% 0.05% 0.11% 0.27% 0.19% 0.07% 0.04% CHF 0.42% 0.19% 0.07% 0.34% 0.15% 0.08% -0.04% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

The EUR/USD pair is trading higher on Tuesday, snapping a four-day losing streak, as European Union (EU) and United States (US) representatives continue to look for a deal to avoid a 30% levy announced by US President Donald Trump, with one eye on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) release due later

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The Euro (EUR) picks up from the three-week lows at 1.1655 hit on Monday, but remains capped below the 1.1700 level so far. Looking at the broader trend, the pair continues trapped within a downtrend channel, retreating from a nearly four-year high of 1.1830 set on July 1.

Market sentiment improves somewhat on Tuesday as the negotiations with the US continue, and President Trump announced the visit of EU officials to the US before reiterating his willingness to talk in an interview with journalists at the White House on Monday.

The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, is showing a somewhat softer tone, with investors wary of holding large Dollar long positions ahead of the US consumer inflation report. Investors will analyze June's CPI to assess the impact of tariffs and anticipate the Federal Reserve's (Fed) next monetary policy steps. Any deviation from the market consensus might have a significant impact on US Dollar crosses.

Meanwhile, US President Trump has continued pressuring the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, calling for lower interest rates. Trump's unprecedented harassment is very likely to intensify if the Fed's higher inflation expectations do not materialise, putting the central bank's independence into question. In previous occasions, these dynamics have increased negative pressure on the US Dollar. Euro PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.17% -0.05% -0.06% -0.09% -0.08% -0.10% -0.29% EUR 0.17% 0.06% 0.09% 0.07% 0.05% 0.01% -0.11% GBP 0.05% -0.06% 0.00% 0.00% -0.04% -0.08% -0.02% JPY 0.06% -0.09% 0.00% -0.04% -0.00% -0.09% -0.14% CAD 0.09% -0.07% -0.00% 0.04% 0.02% -0.08% -0.02% AUD 0.08% -0.05% 0.04% 0.00% -0.02% -0.05% -0.03% NZD 0.10% -0.01% 0.08% 0.09% 0.08% 0.05% 0.06% CHF 0.29% 0.11% 0.02% 0.14% 0.02% 0.03% -0.06% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote). Daily digest market movers: US Dollar loses steam with CPI numbers on focusUS consumer prices are expected to have accelerated to a 2.7% year-on-year pace in June, from 2.4% in May. The core CPI, which strips off the influence of seasonal prices of food and energy, is seen accelerating to 3% in the last twelve months to June from 2.8% in the previous month.President Trump called Chairman Powell a "knucklehead, Stupid guy" on Monday and said that inflation is not a serious concern for the economy, affirming that interest rates should be brought down to 1% from the current 4.25%-4.50% range. These attacks are highly likely to intensify if consumer inflation data comes below the market expectations.Data from China revealed the economy grew at a 5.2% pace in the second quarter, improving market expectations of a 5.1% reading and reflecting an unexpected resilience to US tariffs. These figures have contributed to improving market sentiment, adding weight to the safe-haven US Dollar.In the Eurozone, the German Zew Survey is expected to show a modest improvement in investors' sentiment, although at levels still consistent with a weak economic outlook. At the same time, Eurostat will release the Eurozone's Industrial production figures for May, which are expected to show a 0.9% monthly growth, following the 2.4% contraction seen in April.EUR/USD bounces up from lows, with 1.1700 capping rallies for now

EUR/USD keeps trading within a descending channel from the July 1 highs. The pair is bouncing up from lows, but upside attempts are highly likely to remain limited until the outlook of the trade relationship between the EU and the US clarifies. Technical indicators in the 4-hour chart remain within bearish territory, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) still below the 50 midline.

Bears failed to confirm below the 1.1660 support area (July 10 and 12 lows), but upside attempts remain limited below 1.1700 so far. A bearish continuation below the mentioned 1.1660 might find support at the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the late June bullish run, at 1.1640, ahead of the bottom of the bearish channel from July 1 highs, at 1.1630.

On the upside, the 1.1700 and the channel top, now around 1.1710, are likely to pose significant resistance. If that area is breached, the next target will be the July 10 high, at 1.1750. Tariffs FAQs What are tariffs? Tariffs are customs duties levied on certain merchandise imports or a category of products. Tariffs are designed to help local producers and manufacturers be more competitive in the market by providing a price advantage over similar goods that can be imported. Tariffs are widely used as tools of protectionism, along with trade barriers and import quotas. What is the difference between taxes and tariffs? Although tariffs and taxes both generate government revenue to fund public goods and services, they have several distinctions. Tariffs are prepaid at the port of entry, while taxes are paid at the time of purchase. Taxes are imposed on individual taxpayers and businesses, while tariffs are paid by importers. Are tariffs good or bad? There are two schools of thought among economists regarding the usage of tariffs. While some argue that tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and address trade imbalances, others see them as a harmful tool that could potentially drive prices higher over the long term and lead to a damaging trade war by encouraging tit-for-tat tariffs. What is US President Donald Trump’s tariff plan? During the run-up to the presidential election in November 2024, Donald Trump made it clear that he intends to use tariffs to support the US economy and American producers. In 2024, Mexico, China and Canada accounted for 42% of total US imports. In this period, Mexico stood out as the top exporter with $466.6 billion, according to the US Census Bureau. Hence, Trump wants to focus on these three nations when imposing tariffs. He also plans to use the revenue generated through tariffs to lower personal income taxes.

The New Zealand Dollar bounced up from multi-week lows at 0.5968 duru¡ing Tuesday’s Asian session and trimmed some of the previous losses fuelled by upbeat China’s GDP data returning above 0.5980 at the time of writing.

.fxs-event-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-event-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-event-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:12px}.fxs-event-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-event-module-header{color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px;margin:0;padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;padding-right:32px}.fxs-event-module-header label{cursor:pointer;display:block}.fxs-event-module-header label:after,.fxs-event-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-event-module-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out}.fxs-event-module-container input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-event-module-section .fxs-event-module-content.why-matters{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:17.6px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:20.8px;margin:4px 0 0 0}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title-description-wrapper{display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;padding-bottom:16px;margin-bottom:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar{padding:16px}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-section{padding:0}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:12.8px;line-height:17px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{display:flex;align-items:center;align-content:center;gap:4px;color:#e4871b;font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;font-weight:700;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-read-more svg{width:16px;height:16px}.fxs-event-module-read-more:hover span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-release{margin:0;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:2px}.fxs-event-module-release>p{font-size:12.8px;font-family:Roboto;font-style:normal;line-height:17px;margin:0}.fxs-event-module-release>p>strong{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:700}.fxs-event-module-release>p>span{color:#8c8d91;font-weight:400}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a{color:#e4871b;font-weight:700;text-decoration:none}.fxs-event-module-release>p>a:hover>span{text-decoration:underline}.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-container{margin:16px 0 0 0;border-top:1px solid #ececf1;padding:12px 0 0 0}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The New Zealand Dollar trims some losses on Tuesday, buoyed by strong Chinese GDP and Industrial Production figures.The broader NZD/USD trend remains bearish following a 1% sell-off in the last two days.The US Dollar is pulling back from multi-week highs as investors brace for US CPI data.The New Zealand Dollar bounced up from multi-week lows at 0.5968 duru¡ing Tuesday’s Asian session and trimmed some of the previous losses fuelled by upbeat China’s GDP data returning above 0.5980 at the time of writing.The broader trend, however, remains bearish after having depreciated about 1% over the last two days and nearly 2% from July 1, with the area around the 0.6000 round level likely to pose a significant resistance for bulls.Upbeat data from China lifted market sentimentEarlier on Tuesday, data released by the Chinese Statistics Bureau revealed that the economy grew at a 5.2% pace in the second quarter of the year, below the 5.4% growth seen in the previous quarter but still above the 5.1% reading forecasted by market analysts.

Beyond that, Industrial Production accelerated to a 6.8% yearly growth in June from 5.8% in May, against expectations of a moderate slowdown to 5.6%.

The weaker-than-expected Retail Sales added to evidence of a weak domestic demand, but the overall data was welcomed by the market, which has been seen as a sign of resilience to the US tariffs. Market sentiment improved during the Asian session, lifting risk-sensitive currencies such as the New Zealand Dollar.

On the other hand, the US Dollar is pulling lower, as investors trim US Dollar longs, awaiting the release of the US Consumer Price Index for further clues on the Fed’s monetary policy path. Economic Indicator Gross Domestic Product (YoY) The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China on a monthly basis, is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced in China during a given period. The GDP is considered as the main measure of China’s economic activity. The YoY reading compares economic activity in the reference quarter compared with the same quarter a year earlier. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator is bullish for the Renminbi (CNY), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Last release: Tue Jul 15, 2025 02:00 Frequency: Quarterly Actual: 5.2% Consensus: 5.1% Previous: 5.4% Source: Economic Indicator Industrial Production (YoY) Industrial output is released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China. It shows the volume of production of Chinese Industries such as factories and manufacturing facilities. A surge in output is regarded as inflationary which would prompt the People’s Bank of China would tighten monetary policy and fiscal policy risk. Generally speaking, if high industrial production growth comes out, this may generate a positive sentiment (or bullish) for the CNY, whereas a low reading is seen as negative (or Bearish) for the CNY. Read more. Last release: Tue Jul 15, 2025 02:00 Frequency: Monthly Actual: 6.8% Consensus: 5.6% Previous: 5.8% Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

The Pound Sterling (GBP) trades cautiously near the three-week low around 1.3430 against the US Dollar during the European trading session on Tuesday.

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The GBP/USD pair is expected to see more volatility ahead, with investors focusing on the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.Ahead of the US inflation data, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades flat near the three-week high around 98.00.Investors will pay attention to the US CPI data, as it will provide clarity about the impact of tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump on inflation . Federal Reserve (Fed) officials have been arguing in favor of keeping interest rates at their current levels until they get clarity about how much Trump’s tariff policies will impact prices, and the CPI release could offer some insights on the matter.Still, considering the timing of the announcement of reciprocal tariffs by US President Trump for 22 nations, notably Japan, South Korea, the European Union (EU), and its North American peers, the impact of tariffs will majorly be seen in August CPI figures.According to the estimates, the US headline inflation rose to 2.7% on year from 2.4% in May. The core CPI – which strips off volatile food and energy items – is expected to have grown by 3%, faster than the prior release of 2.8%. On month, both headline and the core CPI are seen rising by 0.3%.Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling trades flat ahead of UK data-packed weekThe Pound Sterling trades broadly calm against its peers on Tuesday. The British currency is expected to trade sideways as investors await the release of the United Kingdom (UK) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June and the labor market data for the three-months ending May, which are scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.Economists expect the UK CPI to have grown at a steady 3.4%, a scenario that generally should prompt the Bank of England (BoE) to hold interest rates steady as inflation is still above the 2% target. However, traders are pricing in a 25-basis point (bps) interest rate reduction by the UK central bank in the August policy meeting amid growing labor market and trade war risks.UK employers have slowed down their hiring plans to offset the impact of an increase in the employers’ contributions to social security schemes, which became effective in April. In the Autumn Statement, Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves raised employers’ contribution to National Insurance (NI) from 13.8% to 15%.Meanwhile, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) is expected to show that the ILO Unemployment Rate steady at 4.6%, remaining at the highest level since the three-months ending in August 2021.On the global front, investors seek clarity on trade talks between the US and the European Union (EU). US President Trump confirmed on Monday that Washington is still in talks with Brussels to secure a trade pact before the August 1 deadline, despite having announced 30% tariffs on imports from the EU over the weekend. Signs of intensifying trade tensions between the US and the EU would be unfavorable for riskier assets, given the high volume of business between both economies.Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling trades below 20 and 50-day EMAsThe Pound Sterling trades close to a three-week low around 1.3430 against the US Dollar. The near-term trend of the GBP/USD pair has turned bearish as it stabilizes below the 20-day and 50-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), which trade around 1.3558 and 1.3477, respectively.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) falls below 40.00. A fresh bearish momentum would emerge if the RSI stays below the same.Looking down, the June 23 low of 1.3370 will act as a key support zone. On the upside, the three-and-a-half-year high around 1.3800 will act as a key barrier.  Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

Spain Consumer Price Index (MoM) above expectations (0.6%) in June: Actual (0.7%)

Spain Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY) registered at 2.3% above expectations (2.2%) in June

Spain Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (MoM) came in at 0.7%, above forecasts (0.6%) in June

The EUR/GBP cross trades in positive territory for the third consecutive day near 0.8690 during the early European session on Tuesday.

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The Pound Sterling (GBP) weakens against the Euro (EUR) as the UK Gross Domestic Product (GDP) shrank for a second consecutive month in May, raising concerns over ballooning fiscal risks. Traders brace for the ZEW Survey from Germany and the Eurozone, which are due later on Tuesday. The UK economy unexpectedly contracted again in May, declining 0.1% month-on-month in May, data showed on Friday. Economists expect growth to slow in the rest of the year amid a weaker jobs market and ongoing economic uncertainty, while the Bank of England (BoE) forecasts a lackluster 1% growth rate in 2025. Money markets are now pricing in a nearly  80% possibility of an August cut. These downbeat UK economic data and rising BoE rate cut bets could weigh on the GBP and create a tailwind for the cross in the near term.  On the Euro front, renewed trade tensions between the US and the European Union (EU) might cap the upside for the EUR. The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday that the bloc is preparing tariffs on US goods, including aircraft, alcohol, coffee, and medical devices worth 72 billion euros ($84 billion) in case no trade deal is reached by August 1. This action came after Trump threatened to impose a 30% tariff on imports from the EU and Mexico beginning early August.  Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}Here is what you need to know on Tuesday, July 15:Markets are in a cautiously optimistic mood in the early European trading hours on Tuesday, weighing US President Donald Trump’s latest tariff threats and criticism of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell against upbeat China’s second-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data.Trump threatened to impose severe tariffs on Russia if President Vladimir Putin does not agree to a peace deal with Ukraine in 50 days.  In a BBC interview this Tuesday, Trump said that “I'm disappointed in him (Putin) but I'm not done with him.”Meanwhile, late Monday, the US President slammed Powell once again, noting that “interest rates should be at 1% or lower, rather than the 4.25% to 4.50% range the Fed has kept the key rate at so far this year.”On the data front, China’s economy expanded by 5.2% in the second quarter, beating the estimates of a 5.1% growth, albeit a slowdown from the 5.4% increase reported in the first quarter.The nation’s annual Retail Sales disappointed with 4.8% in June, while the Industrial Production showed a bigger-than-expected increase of 6.8% in the same period.Investors continue to trade with caution, despite the Chinese optimism, ahead of the all-important US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June due for release later in the American session on Tuesday.The US inflation data holds the key to gauging the scope and timing of the Fed’s interest rate cuts. Therefore, traders resort to taking profits off the table on their US Dollar (USD) long positions, following its recent recovery from nearly four-year troughs.However, the USD downside appears capped, courtesy of the sustained bullish pressure surrounding the USD/JPY pair.Japanese government bonds experienced an intense selling wave, with the yields spiking to multi-year highs on looming fiscal concerns amid an uncertain political scenario. The domestic bond market turmoil continues to undermine the Japanese Yen (JPY).Citing a story from Asahi newspaper, Reuters reported that “Japan's ruling coalition will likely lose its majority in the upper house election on July 20, heightening the risk of political instability at a time the country struggles to strike a trade deal with the US.”EUR/USD is recovering toward 1.1700, helped by a subdued USD performance against its major peers, while anticipating fresh cues on the trade talks between the European Union (EU) and the United States (US). The mid-tier German ZEW Survey and the Eurozone Industrial Production data are also in focus.A Wall Street Journal (WSJ) report cited in early Asia on Tuesday that the EU is preparing tariffs on US goods, including aircraft, alcohol, coffee, and medical devices worth 72 billion euros ($84 billion) in case no trade deal is reached by August 1.GBP/USD is grinding higher toward 1.3450 as improved risk appetite helps the higher-yielding Pound Sterling.Antipodeans are finding some comfort from China’s economic resilience, though AUD/USD is rangebound at around 0.6550. The NZD/USD pair is approaching the 0.6000 round level, moderately higher on the day.USD/CAD remains confined in a narrow range around 1.3700 amid the renewed weakness in Oil price and the Greenback. Traders await the Canadian and US inflation data for a clear directional impetus.WTI extends the previous sell-off to trade near weekly lows below $65.50, shrugging off US-Russia geopolitical and trade tensions.Gold rebounds firmly to retest the key 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement level of the April record rally at $3,377. The daily technical setup remains in favor of buyers. US Dollar PRICE This week The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies this week. US Dollar was the weakest against the Swiss Franc. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.10% 0.41% 0.34% -0.02% 0.20% 0.34% -0.16% EUR 0.10% 0.48% 0.43% 0.06% 0.28% 0.40% -0.07% GBP -0.41% -0.48% -0.10% -0.42% -0.20% -0.09% -0.42% JPY -0.34% -0.43% 0.10% -0.24% -0.14% 0.02% -0.45% CAD 0.02% -0.06% 0.42% 0.24% 0.21% 0.33% -0.14% AUD -0.20% -0.28% 0.20% 0.14% -0.21% 0.09% -0.35% NZD -0.34% -0.40% 0.09% -0.02% -0.33% -0.09% -0.47% CHF 0.16% 0.07% 0.42% 0.45% 0.14% 0.35% 0.47% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price falls on Tuesday, early in the European session. WTI trades at $65.73 per barrel, down from Monday’s close at $65.83.Brent Oil Exchange Rate (Brent crude) is also shedding ground, trading at $68.42 after its previous daily close at $68.50.

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Brent Oil Exchange Rate (Brent crude) is also shedding ground, trading at $68.42 after its previous daily close at $68.50. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

US President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that he is disappointed but not done with Russian President Vladimir Putin, per the BBC.

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The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.

FX option expiries for Jul 15 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.

FX option expiries for Jul 15 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time via DTCC can be found below.EUR/USD: EUR amounts1.1550 1.1b1.1555 2.1b1.1575 1.1b1.1600 1.7b1.1730 875mUSD/JPY: USD amounts                                 148.00 850m148.30 748mUSD/CHF: USD amounts     0.7900 550mAUD/USD: AUD amounts0.6480 1.1b0.6495 789m0.6560 696mUSD/CAD: USD amounts       1.3570 425m1.3610 541m1.3700 439mEUR/GBP: EUR amounts        0.8500 698m

The AUD/JPY cross ticks lower during the Asian session on Tuesday, though it lacks follow-through and remains confined in the previous day's narrow trading range. Spot prices currently hover around the 96.60-96.65 area, down less than 0.10% for the day.

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The AUD/JPY cross ticks lower during the Asian session on Tuesday, though it lacks follow-through and remains confined in the previous day's narrow trading range. Spot prices currently hover around the 96.60-96.65 area, down less than 0.10% for the day.The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues with its relative underperformance amid the growing acceptance that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will forgo raising interest rates this year in anticipation of the economic fallout from higher US tariffs. Apart from this, domestic political uncertainty, along with the optimism led by US President Donald Trump's willingness to engage in trade negotiations, undermines the safe-haven JPY and acts as a tailwind for the AUD/JPY cross.Having issued tariff notices to more than 20 countries and announcing a 50% tariff on copper imports last week, Trump softened his stance on Monday and fueled hopes that trade deals could be struck before the August 1 deadline for reciprocal tariffs. This helped ease concerns about a global trade war and boosts investors' appetite for riskier assets, which is evident from a generally positive tone around the equity markets and dents demand for safe-haven assets.The Australian Dollar (AUD), on the other hand, draws support from the better-than-expected China's GDP print, which showed that the economy expanded at an annual rate of 5.2% in the second quarter of 2025. Adding to this, China’s Industrial Production rose 6.8% in June vs. 5.6% estimated and 5.8% prior, while annual Retail Sales increased by 4.8% vs. 5.6% expected and 6.4% in May. Moreover, China's Fixed Asset Investment advanced 2.8% year-to-date (YTD) in June.This turns out to be another factor lending support to the AUD/JPY cross, suggesting that any meaningful corrective pullback might still be seen as a buying opportunity and is more likely to remain cushioned. Economic Indicator Gross Domestic Product (YoY) The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China on a monthly basis, is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced in China during a given period. The GDP is considered as the main measure of China’s economic activity. The YoY reading compares economic activity in the reference quarter compared with the same quarter a year earlier. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator is bullish for the Renminbi (CNY), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Last release: Tue Jul 15, 2025 02:00 Frequency: Quarterly Actual: 5.2% Consensus: 5.1% Previous: 5.4% Source:

The USD/CHF pair trades on a negative note near 0.7965 during the early European session on Tuesday. Persistent trade-related uncertainties and geopolitical risks boost the safe-haven flows, supporting the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US consumer inflation figures will take center stage later on Tuesday. 

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Persistent trade-related uncertainties and geopolitical risks boost the safe-haven flows, supporting the Swiss Franc (CHF). The US consumer inflation figures will take center stage later on Tuesday. Bloomberg reported late Monday that US President Donald Trump threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Russia if President Vladimir Putin does not agree to a deal to end his invasion of Ukraine in 50 days. Trump further stated that the levies would come in the form of secondary tariffs, without providing details. Meanwhile, Trump signaled he was open to talking about tariffs with the European Union, while Japan is reportedly trying to schedule high-level talks with the US this Friday. The tariff uncertainty and cautious mood ahead of key US inflation data might underpin the CHF against the US Dollar (USD) for the time being.The US June CPI report could offer some hints about the future path for US interest rates. Analysts expect US inflation to have picked up slightly last month due to the impact of Trump's tariffs. The headline US CPI is expected to show an increase of 2.7% YoY in June, while the core CPI is projected to show a 3.0% rise during the same report period. If the report shows a hotter-than-estimated inflation outcome, this could help limit the Greenback’s losses.  Swiss Franc FAQs What key factors drive the Swiss Franc? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is Switzerland’s official currency. It is among the top ten most traded currencies globally, reaching volumes that well exceed the size of the Swiss economy. Its value is determined by the broad market sentiment, the country’s economic health or action taken by the Swiss National Bank (SNB), among other factors. Between 2011 and 2015, the Swiss Franc was pegged to the Euro (EUR). The peg was abruptly removed, resulting in a more than 20% increase in the Franc’s value, causing a turmoil in markets. Even though the peg isn’t in force anymore, CHF fortunes tend to be highly correlated with the Euro ones due to the high dependency of the Swiss economy on the neighboring Eurozone. Why is the Swiss Franc considered a safe-haven currency? The Swiss Franc (CHF) is considered a safe-haven asset, or a currency that investors tend to buy in times of market stress. This is due to the perceived status of Switzerland in the world: a stable economy, a strong export sector, big central bank reserves or a longstanding political stance towards neutrality in global conflicts make the country’s currency a good choice for investors fleeing from risks. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen CHF value against other currencies that are seen as more risky to invest in. How do decisions of the Swiss National Bank impact the Swiss Franc? The Swiss National Bank (SNB) meets four times a year – once every quarter, less than other major central banks – to decide on monetary policy. The bank aims for an annual inflation rate of less than 2%. When inflation is above target or forecasted to be above target in the foreseeable future, the bank will attempt to tame price growth by raising its policy rate. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Swiss Franc (CHF) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken CHF. How does economic data influence the value of the Swiss Franc? Macroeconomic data releases in Switzerland are key to assessing the state of the economy and can impact the Swiss Franc’s (CHF) valuation. The Swiss economy is broadly stable, but any sudden change in economic growth, inflation, current account or the central bank’s currency reserves have the potential to trigger moves in CHF. Generally, high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence are good for CHF. Conversely, if economic data points to weakening momentum, CHF is likely to depreciate. How does the Eurozone monetary policy affect the Swiss Franc? As a small and open economy, Switzerland is heavily dependent on the health of the neighboring Eurozone economies. The broader European Union is Switzerland’s main economic partner and a key political ally, so macroeconomic and monetary policy stability in the Eurozone is essential for Switzerland and, thus, for the Swiss Franc (CHF). With such dependency, some models suggest that the correlation between the fortunes of the Euro (EUR) and the CHF is more than 90%, or close to perfect.

The USD/CAD pair trades broadly stable near 1.3700 during the late Asian trading session on Tuesday.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}USD/CAD flattens around 1.3700 as investors await the US-Canada CPI data for June.Inflation in both the US and Canada is expected to have grown at a faster rate on year.Downward-sloping 200-day EMA suggests that the overall trend is bearish.The USD/CAD pair trades broadly stable near 1.3700 during the late Asian trading session on Tuesday. The Loonie pair is expected to remain almost flat as investors await the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June from both the United States (US) and Canada, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades calmly near the three-week high around 98.00.Investors expect the US inflation to have grown at a faster pace, with headline and core CPI seen accelerating to 2.7% and 3.0%, respectively. Theoretically, a high-inflation environment often leads to the maintenance of a restrictive monetary policy stance by the Federal Reserve (Fed). However, US President Donald Trump has been arguing in favor of reducing interest rates significantly."We should be at 1%. We should be less than 1%," Trump said on Monday, Fox Business reported. Meanwhile, the Canadian CPI is estimated to have grown by 1.9% on year, faster than 1.7% in May. On month, price pressures are expected to have risen moderately by 0.1%, compared to a 0.6% growth seen in May.USD/CAD continues to trade in a range between 1.3638 and 1.3710 over the past week. The pair wobbles around the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades close to 1.3675, suggesting that the near-term trend is sideways. However, the broader trend remains bearish as the 200-day EMA slopes downwards to near 1.3917.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 50.00, indicating that the pair lacks momentum on either side.Going forward, an upside move by the pair above the May 29 high of 1.3820 would open the door towards the May 21 high of 1.3920, followed by the May 15 high of 1.4000.On the contrary, the asset could slide towards the psychological level of 1.3500 and the September 25 low of 1.3420 if it breaks below the June 16 low of 1.3540.USD/CAD daily chart lacks  Inflation FAQs What is inflation? Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%. What is the Consumer Price Index (CPI)? The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls. What is the impact of inflation on foreign exchange? Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money. How does inflation influence the price of Gold? Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price extends its losses for the second successive session, trading around $65.80 per barrel during the European hours on Tuesday.

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The 14-day Relative Strength Index remains below the 50 mark, indicating that bearish momentum persists.The nine-day EMA at $66.39 may act as a primary barrier.West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price extends its losses for the second successive session, trading around $65.80 per barrel during the European hours on Tuesday. The technical analysis of the daily chart suggests the price of the precious metal remains within a rectangular pattern, indicating a consolidation phase.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below the 50 level, suggesting a bearish bias is in play. Additionally, the Silver price is trading below the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), indicating potential weakening of short-term price momentum.On the downside, the WTI price is testing the immediate support at the 50-day EMA of $65.65. A break below this level would weaken the medium-term price momentum and prompt the WTI price to approach the lower boundary of the rectangle around the psychological level of $64.00. A break below the rectangle would cause the emergence of the bearish bias and put downward pressure on the Oil price to navigate the region around the three-month low at $55.14, recorded on May 5.The WTI price may find initial resistance around the nine-day EMA at $66.39. A break above the latter would improve the short-term price momentum and support the Oil price to approach the upper boundary of the rectangle around $68.50. A break above the rectangle would give rise to bullish bias and support the crude price to test the six-month high of $76.74, which was reached on June 23.WTI: Daily Chart WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.

The GBP/USD pair consolidates near the 1.3430-1.3435 region, just above a three-week low touched during the Asian session on Tuesday as traders keenly await the release of the US consumer inflation figure.

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Traders, however, seem reluctant and opt to wait for the latest US consumer inflation figures.The GBP/USD pair consolidates near the 1.3430-1.3435 region, just above a three-week low touched during the Asian session on Tuesday as traders keenly await the release of the US consumer inflation figure. Meanwhile, the fundamental backdrop seems tilted in favor of bears and suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices is to the downside. The disappointing macro data released from the UK last week reinforced bets that the Bank of England (BoE) could cut interest rates again in August. This marks a significant divergence in comparison to diminishing odds for an immediate rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and validates the negative outlook for the GBP/USD pair. That said, a modest US Dollar (USD) pullback from a multi-week high lends support to the currency pair. From a technical perspective, last week's breakdown below the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the 4-hour chart was seen as a key trigger for bearish traders. However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the said chart is already flashing oversold conditions. This makes it prudent to wait for some intraday consolidation or a modest bounce before positioning for any further near-term depreciating move for the GBP/USD pair. That said, any attempted recovery is likely to be sold into around the 1.3470 region. This, in turn, should cap spot prices near the 1.3500 psychological mark, which should now act as a key pivotal point. Hence, a sustained strength beyond the said handle could trigger a short-covering move and lift the GBP/USD pair towards the 1.3550 intermediate hurdle en route to the 1.3600 round figure and the 1.3620-1.3625 supply zone.On the flip side, bears might wait for a convincing break below the 1.3400 mark before placing fresh bets. The GBP/USD pair might then accelerate the fall towards the next relevant support near the 1.3355 region before eventually dropping to the 1.3300 round figure. The downward trajectory could extend further towards the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support, currently pegged near the 1.3265 region. GBP/USD 4-hour chart Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

The EUR/USD pair trades calmly around 1.1670 during the Asian trading session on Tuesday. The major currency pair oscillates in a limited range, with investors awaiting fresh development on trade negotiations between the United States (US) and the European Union (EU).

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The major currency pair oscillates in a limited range, with investors awaiting fresh development on trade negotiations between the United States (US) and the European Union (EU).On Monday, US President Donald Trump confirmed that Washington is still in talks with Brussels to secure a trade pact before the August 1 deadline, despite having announced 30% tariffs on imports from the EU over the weekend.Meanwhile, a report from Bloomberg has stated that the 27-nation trading bloc is prepared with proportionate countermeasures if it fails to ink a deal with the US in order to safeguard its interests. The report showed that the European Commission (EC) has finalized a new list of potential tariffs targeting $84 billion (€72 billion) worth of US goods, including aircraft made by Boeing Co., automobiles, bourbon, agricultural products, chemicals, and machinery.In Tuesday’s session, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June will be the key trigger for the pair, which will be published at 12:30 GMT. Investors will pay close attention to the US inflation data as it will indicate the impact of sectoral tariffs on price pressures. The US headline inflation is estimated to have grown at a faster pace of 2.7% on year, compared to 2.4% in May. In the same period, the core CPI – which excludes volatile food and energy prices – rose at a faster pace of 3%, compared to the prior release of 2.8%. Month-on-month headline and core CPI are expected to have grown strongly by 0.3%.Signs of price pressures accelerating would force traders to pare bets supporting interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the September policy meeting. The Fed is almost certain to leave interest rates unchanged in the 4.25%-4.50% range in the policy meeting later this month. Economic Indicator Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY) Inflationary or deflationary tendencies are measured by periodically summing the prices of a basket of representative goods and services and presenting the data as the Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI data is compiled on a monthly basis and released by the US Department of Labor Statistics. The YoY reading compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. The CPI Ex Food & Energy excludes the so-called more volatile food and energy components to give a more accurate measurement of price pressures. Generally speaking, a high reading is bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Tue Jul 15, 2025 12:30 Frequency: Monthly Consensus: 3% Previous: 2.8% Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Why it matters to traders? The US Federal Reserve has a dual mandate of maintaining price stability and maximum employment. According to such mandate, inflation should be at around 2% YoY and has become the weakest pillar of the central bank’s directive ever since the world suffered a pandemic, which extends to these days. Price pressures keep rising amid supply-chain issues and bottlenecks, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) hanging at multi-decade highs. The Fed has already taken measures to tame inflation and is expected to maintain an aggressive stance in the foreseeable future.

Gold prices rose in India on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet.

.fxs-related-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-related-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{text-decoration:none;color:#1b1c23;font-weight:700;font-size:16px;font-style:normal;line-height:20px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover,.fxs-related-module-related-link:hover a{color:#e4871b}.fxs-related-module-related-link a:hover{text-decoration:none}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-related-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-related-module-related-link a{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}} .fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} Gold prices rose in India on Tuesday, according to data compiled by FXStreet. The price for Gold stood at 9,278.60 Indian Rupees (INR) per gram, up compared with the INR 9,231.73 it cost on Monday. The price for Gold increased to INR 108,222.00 per tola from INR 107,677.10 per tola a day earlier. Unit measure Gold Price in INR 1 Gram 9,278.60 10 Grams 92,784.49 Tola 108,222.00 Troy Ounce 288,595.70   2025 Gold Forecast Guide [PDF] Download your free copy of the 2025 Gold Forecast Daily digest market movers: Gold edges lower as the Greenback climbs Gold price has consolidated within the $3,300-$3,350 area during the last few days as trade tensions rose after Trump imposed tariffs on several countries, including USMCA trade partners Canada, Mexico and the EU. The Greenback’s strength is pressuring Bullion prices. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the Dollar’s value against a basket of six currencies, rises 0.25% to 98.10. Another reason for XAU weakness is that US Treasury yields are rising, with the 10-year T-note up one basis point to 4.427%. Investors are awaiting the release of June’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the United States. The CPI is expected to jump from 2.4% to 2.7% YoY. The underlying print is foreseen at 3% YoY, up from 2.8%, well above the Fed’s 2% goal. This justifies the current monetary policy stance by the Fed, which repeatedly said that tariffs are inflation prone, triggering another wave of inflation. This would exert pressure on the Fed, which so far has witnessed a sudden change of views about the current monetary policy. Governors Waller and Bowman and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly leaned to the dovish side, expecting at least two rate cuts in 2025. Data from the CBOT suggests that market players are expecting 47 basis points of easing by the Fed toward the end of 2025. Data from the Chicago Board of Trade revealed that market players are eyeing 49 basis points (bps) of easing in 2025. FXStreet calculates Gold prices in India by adapting international prices (USD/INR) to the local currency and measurement units. Prices are updated daily based on the market rates taken at the time of publication. Prices are just for reference and local rates could diverge slightly.   Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)

The EUR/JPY cross trades in positive territory near 172.45 during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The rising expectation that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) would keep interest rates low for longer than it wants could weigh on the Japanese Yen (JPY) against the Euro (EUR).

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The rising expectation that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) would keep interest rates low for longer than it wants could weigh on the Japanese Yen (JPY) against the Euro (EUR). The release of ZEW Survey from Germany will be released later on Tuesday. Technically, EUR/JPY keeps the bullish vibe on the daily chart, with the price holding above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands above the midline near 73.10, indicating the overbought RSI condition. This suggests that further consolidation or temporary sell-off cannot be ruled out before positioning for any near-term EUR/JPY appreciation.The first upside barrier for the cross emerges at 173.20, representing the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band. Extended gains could see a rally to 174.52, the high of July 3, 2024. The additional upside filter to watch is 175.43,  the high of July 11, 2024. On the other hand, the initial support level for the cross is located at 170.81, the low of July 11. A breach of this level could expose the 170.00 psychological level. The next contention level to watch is 169.04, the low of July 2. EUR/JPY daily chart Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

The Indian Rupee (INR) ticks up at open against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday. The USD/INR pair edges lower to near 86.00 even as the US Dollar (USD) demonstrates strength ahead of the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.

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The USD/INR pair edges lower to near 86.00 even as the US Dollar (USD) demonstrates strength ahead of the United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June, which will be published at 12:30 GMT.At the time of writing, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, trades firmly near the three-week high around 98.00.Investors will closely monitor the CPI data as it will demonstrate the impact of sectoral tariffs on inflation. So far, US President Donald Trump has imposed 25% tariffs on imports of automobiles and auto components, and 50% on steel and aluminum. He has also announced a 50% additional import duty on copper, which will become effective from August 1.As measured by the CPI, the US headline inflation is expected to have grown by 2.7% on year, faster than 2.4% in May. In the same period, the core CPI – which excludes volatile food and energy prices – rose at a faster pace of 3%, compared to the prior release of 2.8%. On month, both headline and the core CPI are estimated to have risen 0.3%, faster than the former reading of 0.1%.Signs of accelerating price pressures would discourage Federal Reserve (Fed) officials from arguing in favor of reducing interest rates in the near term. This would be in contrast with US President Trump’s ambitions, who has criticized the Fed, especially Chairman Jerome Powell, for not bringing interest rates down.On Monday, US President Trump criticized Fed Powell again for maintaining a restrictive monetary policy stance, stating that the interest rates should be reduced to 1% or below. We have a bad Fed chairman, really bad," Trump said at the White House and added, "We should be at 1%. We should be less than 1%," Fox Business reported. Daily digest market movers: Indian Rupee ticks up despite cooling inflationary pressuresThe Indian Rupee as soft Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June on year have prompted hopes of further monetary policy easing by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) this year.India’s Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation reported on Monday that the headline inflation grew moderately by 2.1%, compared to estimates of 2.5% and 2.82% recorded in May. This was the lowest figure seen in over six years.According to the CPI report, a sharp decline in food inflation due to widespread monsoon contributed significantly to cooling price pressures. Meanwhile, the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) Inflation, which indicates change in price pressure at the producer level, fell into the negative territory. This also increased confidence in price pressures cooling down, paving the way for more interest rate cuts by the RBI this year.In the June meeting, the RBI front-loaded interest rate cuts by lowering the Repo Rate surprisingly by 50 basis points (bps) to 5.5% and reducing the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) by 100 bps to 3%.Meanwhile, uncertainty surrounding the trade agreement between the US and India is expected to keep the Indian Rupee on the back foot. A report from Bloomberg released over the weekend stating that Washington will not send the letter to India, specifying reciprocal tariff rates, which he has dispatched to 22 nations yet, notably Japan, Canada, Mexico, South Korea and the European Union (EU) increased investors’ confidence that both nations could sign a trade pact before the August 1 deadline.During the day, investors will focus on the Trade Deficit Government data for June. In May, the trade deficit was seen at $21.88 billion.Technical Analysis: USD/INR holds above 20-day EMAUSD/INR falls slightly to near 86.00 in the opening session on Tuesday. The pair struggles to extend its upside above the fresh three-week high of 86.16 posted on Monday. However, the near-term trend of the pair remains bullish as it stays above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 85.93.The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates inside the 40.00-60.00 range, suggesting that the asset lacks momentum on either side.Looking down, the May 27 low of 85.10 will act as key support for the major. On the upside, the June 24 low at 86.42 will be a critical hurdle for the pair.  Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.

Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some dip-buying during the Asian session on Tuesday and reverses a major part of the previous day's retracement slide from a nearly three-week high.

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Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some dip-buying during the Asian session on Tuesday and reverses a major part of the previous day's retracement slide from a nearly three-week high. The US Dollar (USD) pauses for a breather following the recent run-up to its highest level since June 24, ahead of the release of US consumer inflation figures later in the day and, acts as a tailwind for the commodity. The crucial data would influence market expectations about the Federal Reserve's (Fed) rate-cut path, which, in turn, will play a key role in driving the USD and providing some meaningful impetus to the non-yielding yellow metal.In the meantime, bets that the US central bank will keep rates elevated in anticipation of worsening inflation as a result of higher import taxes, and a still resilient US labor market, remain supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields. This should continue to underpin the USD and cap the Gold price. Apart from this, hopes that trade deals could be struck before US President Donald Trump's August 1 deadline for reciprocal tariffs, and that a global trade war would be averted, might hold back the XAU/USD bulls from placing aggressive bets, warranting caution before positioning for any further appreciation. Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price benefits from modest USD weakness ahead of US CPI reportThe US Dollar retreats slightly from a multi-week top set the previous day amid some repositioning trade ahead of the latest US consumer inflation figures, due later this Tuesday, and lends support to the Gold price during the Asian session. The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) is anticipated to rise 2.7% YoY in June, while the core gauge is seen coming in at 3.0% YoY. Even a slight disappointment would fuel speculations about an early interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.Traders are currently assigning a 60% probability of a rate cut by September and at least 50 basis points worth of easing by the year-end. Hence, a softer print could weigh on the USD and provide a goodish lift to the non-yielding yellow metal.Meanwhile, the market reaction to stronger readings is more likely to be limited as persistent uncertainties surrounding US President Donald Trump's trade policies might continue to offer some support to the safe-haven XAU/USD pair. In fact, Trump issued tariff notices to more than 20 countries and announced a 50% tariff on copper imports last week. Trump, however, softened his stance on Monday and signaled that his administration was open to further trade negotiations.This, in turn, boosts investors' appetite for riskier assets, which is evident from a generally positive tone around the equity markets. Hence, some follow-through buying is needed to set the stage for a further XAU/USD appreciating move. Gold price could reclaim $3,400 above $3,365 key resistanceFrom a technical perspective, a sustained strength beyond the $3,365-3,366 region might be seen as a fresh trigger for the XAU/USD bulls amid positive oscillators on hourly/daily charts. This, in turn, would set the stage for additional gains and allow the Gold price to reclaim the $3,400 round figure. Some follow-through buying has the potential to lift the commodity further towards the next relevant hurdle near the $3,434-3,435 area.On the flip side, the $3,341-3,340 could offer immediate support, and any further slide could be seen as a buying opportunity near the $3,326 region. This should help limit the downside for the Gold price near the $3,300 round figure. This is followed by the $3,283-3,282 region, or over a one-week low touched last Tuesday, which, if broken, would make the XAU/USD pair vulnerable to accelerate the corrective fall towards the July swing low, around the $3,248-3,247 area. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

Silver price (XAG/USD) holds ground after registering more than 0.50% losses, trading around $38.10 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The Silver price may further advance toward a 14-year high of $39.13, which was reached on Monday, amid renewed safe-haven demand.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Silver price may appreciate toward a 14-year high of $39.13, recorded on Monday.Safe-haven demand increases as Trump has warned to impose “very severe” tariffs on Russia.Fed Chair Powell signaled that inflation may increase over the summer due to tariff-related pressures.Silver price (XAG/USD) holds ground after registering more than 0.50% losses, trading around $38.10 per troy ounce during the Asian hours on Tuesday. The Silver price may further advance toward a 14-year high of $39.13, which was reached on Monday, amid renewed safe-haven demand.Traders adopt caution following the US President Donald Trump’s latest threat to impose “very severe” tariffs on Russia if no peace deal is reached within 50 days. Moreover, Trump, alongside NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, confirmed that European allies will purchase billions of dollars’ worth of American-made weapons, such as Patriot missile systems. These weapons will be transferred to Ukraine in the coming weeks to tackle intensified Russian attacks.The non-interest-bearing Silver faced challenges, potentially due to Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks. Fed Chair Powell signals that inflation is expected to rise over the summer, driven by tariff-related pressures, boosting the probability that the Fed may delay interest rate cuts until later this year. Meanwhile, concerns over central bank independence resurfaced as President Trump renewed his criticism of Powell, insisting that interest rates should be at 1% or lower.Moreover, the concerns over global trade ease as Trump indicated his willingness to engage in further tariff negotiations with the European Union and other key partners. However, traders would likely adopt caution amid uncertainty surrounding the tariff tensions. The US government immediately imposed on Monday a 17% duty on most imports of fresh tomatoes from Mexico after negotiations ended without an agreement to avert the tariff. Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to meet Australia’s Prime Minister Anthony Albanese on Tuesday in Beijing to discuss trade and security amid global trade turmoil and pressure from the US over security commitments to Taiwan, per the Financial Times. 

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Most important is to seek common ground while sharing differences.

China is ready to work with the Australian side to push bilateral ties further and make great progress.Market reaction  At the time of press, the AUD/USD pair was up 0.03% on the day at 0.6547. Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.

South Korea Money Supply Growth rose from previous 5.8% to 6% in May

The United States (US) Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish the all-important Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June on Tuesday at 12:30 GMT.

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50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The US Consumer Price Index is set to rise 2.7% YoY in June, accelerating from May’s 2.4% growth.US President Donald Trump continues to threaten tariffs and undermine the Fed’s independence.June’s inflation data will significantly impact the direction of the US Dollar as it is a key indicator for the Fed’s interest-rate path ahead.The United States (US) Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will publish the all-important Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June on Tuesday at 12:30 GMT.Markets will look for fresh signs of US President Donald Trump's tariffs feeding through into prices. Therefore, the US Dollar (USD) could experience volatility on the CPI release as the data has a significant influence on the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate outlook for this year.What to expect in the next CPI data report?As measured by the change in the CPI, inflation in the US is expected to rise at an annual rate of 2.7% in June, having recorded a 2.4% increase in May. The core CPI inflation, which excludes the volatile food and energy categories, is forecast to rise 3% year-over-year (YoY), compared to the 2.8% acceleration reported in the previous month. Overall, inflation is expected to tick up further away from the Fed’s 2% targetOver the month, both the CPI and the core CPI are seen advancing by 0.3% in the same period.Previewing the report, analysts at TD Securities said: “June core CPI likely rebounded to 0.27% month-over-month (MoM) following last month's surprising decline to 0.13%. We look for goods prices to gather steam in June, reflecting some tariff passthrough, and rebounding from last month's modest contraction.”“Unlike May, we don't expect the services segment to help offset that strength. Headline also likely increased 0.27%, aided by energy prices,” they added.How could the US Consumer Price Index report affect EUR/USD?Heading into the US inflation showdown on Tuesday, markets digest a slew of fresh tariff threats by President Trump so far this month.Over the weekend, Trump threatened a 30% tariff on imports from the European Union (EU) and Mexico, starting on August 1, having sent tariff letters to about 20 other countries last week.Meanwhile, Trump is piling up political pressure for more aggressive stimulus from the US central bank, undermining its independence. The President continued to bash Fed Chair Jerome Powell by saying on Sunday that “it would be a great thing if Powell stepped down.”White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett over the weekend warned Trump might have grounds to fire Powell because of renovation cost overruns at the Fed's Washington headquarters.Against this backdrop, markets continue pricing in just over 50 basis points (bps) of interest rate reductions this year, with Powell sticking to his patient outlook on cuts.The odds of a September Fed rate cut currently stand at about 60%, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, down from 65% seen at the start of the month.The increased expectations of an extended pause by the Fed are mainly due to the latest tariff salvo from Trump and a resilient US labor market. The June US employment data showed that the headline Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose by 147,000, against expectations of a 110,000 job gain. Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate ticked lower to 4.1% last month versus 4.2% in May.Therefore, the inflation report for June is critical to gauging the market pricing of the Fed’s rate outlook, in turn, impacting the USD’s valuation in the near term.An upside surprise in the monthly core CPI reading, which is not distorted by base effects, could provide additional leg to the USD recovery and weigh on EUR/USD. In such a case, the data could revive expectations of only one Fed rate cut this year.However, a softer-than-expected monthly core inflation could ease concerns over the tariff effect on inflation, undermining the USD demand. In this scenario, EUR/USD could regain bullish traction.Dhwani Mehta, Asian Session Lead Analyst at FXStreet, offers a brief technical outlook for EUR/USD and explains:“The pair battles the 21-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) support at 1.1665.  Meanwhile, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator holds well above 50, despite the recent downtrend, suggesting that the bullish potential remains intact.”“On the upside, the immediate resistance level is aligned at the 1.1750 psychological mark, above which the 1.1800 round level will be tested. Further north, the multi-year high of 1.1830 will come into play. Alternatively, a sustained move below the 21-day SMA could challenge the first support at the June 12 high of 1.1631. The next healthy support levels are seen at around 1.1550 and the 50-day SMA at 1.1474.” Economic Indicator Consumer Price Index (MoM) Inflationary or deflationary tendencies are measured by periodically summing the prices of a basket of representative goods and services and presenting the data as The Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI data is compiled on a monthly basis and released by the US Department of Labor Statistics. The MoM figure compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the previous month.The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Tue Jul 15, 2025 12:30 Frequency: Monthly Consensus: 0.3% Previous: 0.1% Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics Why it matters to traders? The US Federal Reserve (Fed) has a dual mandate of maintaining price stability and maximum employment. According to such mandate, inflation should be at around 2% YoY and has become the weakest pillar of the central bank’s directive ever since the world suffered a pandemic, which extends to these days. Price pressures keep rising amid supply-chain issues and bottlenecks, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) hanging at multi-decade highs. The Fed has already taken measures to tame inflation and is expected to maintain an aggressive stance in the foreseeable future. Inflation FAQs What is inflation? Inflation measures the rise in the price of a representative basket of goods and services. Headline inflation is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core inflation excludes more volatile elements such as food and fuel which can fluctuate because of geopolitical and seasonal factors. Core inflation is the figure economists focus on and is the level targeted by central banks, which are mandated to keep inflation at a manageable level, usually around 2%. What is the Consumer Price Index (CPI)? The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in prices of a basket of goods and services over a period of time. It is usually expressed as a percentage change on a month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) basis. Core CPI is the figure targeted by central banks as it excludes volatile food and fuel inputs. When Core CPI rises above 2% it usually results in higher interest rates and vice versa when it falls below 2%. Since higher interest rates are positive for a currency, higher inflation usually results in a stronger currency. The opposite is true when inflation falls. What is the impact of inflation on foreign exchange? Although it may seem counter-intuitive, high inflation in a country pushes up the value of its currency and vice versa for lower inflation. This is because the central bank will normally raise interest rates to combat the higher inflation, which attract more global capital inflows from investors looking for a lucrative place to park their money. How does inflation influence the price of Gold? Formerly, Gold was the asset investors turned to in times of high inflation because it preserved its value, and whilst investors will often still buy Gold for its safe-haven properties in times of extreme market turmoil, this is not the case most of the time. This is because when inflation is high, central banks will put up interest rates to combat it. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold vis-a-vis an interest-bearing asset or placing the money in a cash deposit account. On the flipside, lower inflation tends to be positive for Gold as it brings interest rates down, making the bright metal a more viable investment alternative.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is edging lower after four days of gains and trading around 98.10 during the Asian hours on Tuesday.

.fxs-major-currency-prices-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:8px 16px}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table{width:100%;text-align:center;border-collapse:collapse;font-size:1rem}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table th{background-color:#f2f2f2}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td{color:#fff}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.green{background-color:#9cd6cd}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.red{background-color:#faafb5}table.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-table td.blue-grey{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-prices-legend{font-size:11px;margin:8px;color:#49494f}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-major-currency-prices-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}.fxs-major-currency-prices-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.dark-green{background-color:#39ad9a}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-green{background-color:#9cd6cd}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.gray{background-color:#888a93}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.light-red{background-color:#faafb5}.fxs-major-currency-prices-currency-price td.strong-red{background-color:#f55e6a}The US Dollar Index may gain ground due to increased safe-haven demand. Trump has warned to impose “very severe” tariffs on Russia if no peace deal is made within 50 days.Trump confirmed that European allies have agreed to buy American-made weapons for Ukraine to help counter Russian attacks.The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar (USD) against six major currencies, is edging lower after four days of gains and trading around 98.10 during the Asian hours on Tuesday. Investors are likely awaiting June's Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Tuesday to gain fresh impetus over the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary outlook.The Greenback may regain its ground amid renewed geopolitical concerns, driven by the US President Donald Trump’s latest threat to impose “very severe” tariffs on Russia if no peace deal is reached within 50 days. Trump also warned of secondary tariffs on countries importing Russian Oil.President Trump, alongside NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, confirmed that European allies will purchase billions of dollars’ worth of American-made weapons, such as Patriot missile systems. These weapons will be transferred to Ukraine in the coming weeks to tackle intensified Russian attacks.The US government immediately imposed on Monday a 17% duty on most imports of fresh tomatoes from Mexico after negotiations ended without an agreement to avert the tariff. Trump announced, on Saturday, a 30% tariff on imports from the European Union (EU) and Mexico starting August 1. He also proposed a blanket tariff rate of 15%-20% on other trading partners, an increase from the current 10% baseline rate.Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack depicted a fundamentally robust economy, despite inflation persistently surpassing the Fed's target. Hammack highlighted the importance of keeping monetary policy restrictive. She added that they don’t know what the tariff impact will be and don’t see an imminent need to cut rates. US Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the Swiss Franc. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.04% 0.00% -0.01% -0.03% 0.03% -0.01% -0.20% EUR 0.04% -0.02% 0.00% -0.00% 0.04% -0.05% -0.14% GBP -0.01% 0.02% 0.00% 0.01% 0.03% -0.04% 0.02% JPY 0.01% 0.00% 0.00% -0.04% 0.06% -0.05% -0.10% CAD 0.03% 0.00% -0.01% 0.04% 0.07% -0.05% 0.00% AUD -0.03% -0.04% -0.03% -0.06% -0.07% -0.08% -0.06% NZD 0.01% 0.05% 0.04% 0.05% 0.05% 0.08% 0.06% CHF 0.20% 0.14% -0.02% 0.10% -0.01% 0.06% -0.06% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).

Following the publication of the high-impact China’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and activity data, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) expressed its outlook on the economy during its press conference on Tuesday.

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Structural contradictions within the economy have not been fundamentally alleviated.

Domestic demand as a contribution to economic growth has been a driving force for GDP.

Final consumption accounted for 52.3% for Q2 GDP growth.

Trade accounted for 23% for Q2 GDP growth.

Need to improve investment structure, environment.

Real estate market heading towards stabilisation.

Decline in house prices has generally narrowed, in some cities prices are rising.Market reaction  At the time of press, the AUD/USD pair was up 0.05% on the day at 0.6548. GDP FAQs What is GDP and how is it recorded? A country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the rate of growth of its economy over a given period of time, usually a quarter. The most reliable figures are those that compare GDP to the previous quarter e.g Q2 of 2023 vs Q1 of 2023, or to the same period in the previous year, e.g Q2 of 2023 vs Q2 of 2022. Annualized quarterly GDP figures extrapolate the growth rate of the quarter as if it were constant for the rest of the year. These can be misleading, however, if temporary shocks impact growth in one quarter but are unlikely to last all year – such as happened in the first quarter of 2020 at the outbreak of the covid pandemic, when growth plummeted. How does GDP influence currencies? A higher GDP result is generally positive for a nation’s currency as it reflects a growing economy, which is more likely to produce goods and services that can be exported, as well as attracting higher foreign investment. By the same token, when GDP falls it is usually negative for the currency. When an economy grows people tend to spend more, which leads to inflation. The country’s central bank then has to put up interest rates to combat the inflation with the side effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors, thus helping the local currency appreciate. How does higher GDP impact the price of Gold? When an economy grows and GDP is rising, people tend to spend more which leads to inflation. The country’s central bank then has to put up interest rates to combat the inflation. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold versus placing the money in a cash deposit account. Therefore, a higher GDP growth rate is usually a bearish factor for Gold price.

The NZD/USD pair remains firm near 0.5980 during the Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) edges slightly higher against the US Dollar (USD) after the release of Chinese economic data.

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The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) edges slightly higher against the US Dollar (USD) after the release of Chinese economic data. The attention will shift to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data for June, which will be published later on Tuesday.Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Tuesday showed that the Chinese economy grew at an annual rate of 5.2% in the second quarter (Q2) of 2025, compared to a 5.4% growth in Q1. This figure came in stronger than the expectation of 5.1%. Meanwhile, the Chinese Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rate rose 1.1% QoQ in Q2  after advancing 1.2% in the previous quarter, above the market consensus of 0.9%. Additionally, China’s Retail Sales increased by 4.8% YoY in June versus 5.6% expected and 6.4% prior. The Industrial Production arrived at 6.8% YoY in June, compared to a 5.6% estimate and May’s reading of 5.8%. The stronger-than-expected Chinese economic data fails to boost the China-proxy Kiwi as traders prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of the US CPI inflation data on Tuesday. The US CPI data will take center stage later on Tuesday. This report might offer cues about the future path for US interest rates. Economists expect US inflation to have picked up slightly last month due to the impact of US President Donald Trump's tariffs. If the report shows a hotter-than-estimated inflation outcome, this could boost the USD and act as a headwind for the pair. New Zealand Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD. How do decisions of the RBNZ impact the New Zealand Dollar? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair. How does economic data influence the value of the New Zealand Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the New Zealand Dollar? The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.

 

The Japanese Yen (JPY) struggles near a three-week low against its American counterpart during the Asian session on Tuesday and seems vulnerable to prolonging a two-week-old downtrend.

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US President Donald Trump showed willingness to engage in trade negotiations, fueling hopes for a US-Japan deal before the August 1 deadline and lending some support to the JPY. Meanwhile, the optimism boosts investors' appetite for riskier assets and acts as a headwind for the safe-haven JPY. Furthermore, bets that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) would keep interest rates low for longer than it wants amid concerns about the economic fallout from higher US tariffs contribute to capping the JPY. Apart from this, political uncertainty ahead of Japan's upper house elections on July 20 might hold back the JPY bulls from placing aggressive bets. Traders also seem reluctant ahead of the US consumer inflation figures, which will provide some meaningful impetus to the US Dollar (USD) and the USD/JPY pair. Japanese Yen bulls remain on the defensive as trade jitters temper BoJ rate hike betsUS President Donald Trump softened his stance on trade and told reporters at the White House on Monday that he was open to further trade negotiations. Trump added that Europe has expressed interest in pursuing a different kind of agreement. Meanwhile, Trump’s 25% tariff on Japanese goods effective from August 1 could result in a loss of economic momentum and a cooler inflation outlook. This could potentially curb expectations for an immediate interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan.Meanwhile, recent opinion surveys suggest that Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba's coalition may lose its majority at the upcoming upper house election on July 20. According to the Asahi newspaper, the LDP will likely win just around 35 seats.The benchmark 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield rose to 1.595% on Tuesday, a level unseen since October 2008, as investors brace for the possible loss of fiscal hawk Ishiba, straining Japan's already frail finances.This would further complicate the BoJ's efforts to normalise its monetary policy, which, along with a turnaround in the global risk sentiment, is seen undermining the Japanese Yen and acting as a tailwind for the USD/JPY pair on Tuesday. The US Dollar shot to its highest level since June 24 amid the growing acceptance that the Federal Reserve would keep interest rates elevated in anticipation of worsening inflation as a result of higher import taxes and a still resilient US labor market. Hence, the focus remains glued to the release of the latest US consumer inflation figures, due later this Tuesday. The heading Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to rise 2.7% YoY in June, while the core gauge is seen coming in at 3.0% YoY.Nevertheless, the crucial data would influence market expectations about the Fed's rate-cut path and determine the near-term trajectory for the USD. Apart from this, trade developments should provide a fresh impetus to the USD/JPY pair. USD/JPY bulls now await a move beyond June's monthly swing high around 148.00The recent breakout through the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and a subsequent strength beyond the 147.00 mark was seen as a key trigger for the USD/JPY bulls. Moreover, oscillators on the daily chart have been gaining positive traction and are still away from being in the overbought territory. This, in turn, suggests that the path of least resistance for spot prices remains to the upside and backs the case for an extension of a two-week-old uptrend. From current levels, the June swing high, around the 148.00 mark, could act as an immediate hurdle, above which the currency pair could test the 148.65 region (May swing high) before aiming to reclaim the 149.00 round figure. On the flip side, any meaningful corrective slide could be seen as a buying opportunity near the 147.20-147.15 region. This is closely followed by the 147.00 mark, below which the USD/JPY pair could accelerate the fall towards the 146.60-146.55 region en route to the 146.00 round figure and the 100-day SMA, currently pegged near the 145.80 region. The latter should act as a key pivotal point and a convincing break below might shift the near-term bias in favor of bearish traders, paving the way for a decline towards the 145.50-145.45 area en route to the 145.00 psychological mark. Japanese Yen FAQs What key factors drive the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen (JPY) is one of the world’s most traded currencies. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Japanese economy, but more specifically by the Bank of Japan’s policy, the differential between Japanese and US bond yields, or risk sentiment among traders, among other factors. How do the decisions of the Bank of Japan impact the Japanese Yen? One of the Bank of Japan’s mandates is currency control, so its moves are key for the Yen. The BoJ has directly intervened in currency markets sometimes, generally to lower the value of the Yen, although it refrains from doing it often due to political concerns of its main trading partners. The BoJ ultra-loose monetary policy between 2013 and 2024 caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks. More recently, the gradually unwinding of this ultra-loose policy has given some support to the Yen. How does the differential between Japanese and US bond yields impact the Japanese Yen? Over the last decade, the BoJ’s stance of sticking to ultra-loose monetary policy has led to a widening policy divergence with other central banks, particularly with the US Federal Reserve. This supported a widening of the differential between the 10-year US and Japanese bonds, which favored the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen. The BoJ decision in 2024 to gradually abandon the ultra-loose policy, coupled with interest-rate cuts in other major central banks, is narrowing this differential. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Japanese Yen? The Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven investment. This means that in times of market stress, investors are more likely to put their money in the Japanese currency due to its supposed reliability and stability. Turbulent times are likely to strengthen the Yen’s value against other currencies seen as more risky to invest in.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) gains ground against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, following China’s economic data.

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p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Australian Dollar advances following the release of key economic data from China.China’s Q2 GDP rose 5.2% YoY, against the expected increase of 5.1%.Trump has warned to impose “very severe” tariffs on Russia if no peace deal is made within 50 days.The Australian Dollar (AUD) gains ground against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, following China’s economic data. In Australia’s close trading partner, China, the economy expanded at an annual rate of 5.2% in the second quarter, compared to a 5.4% growth in the first quarter and the expected 5.1% growth. Meanwhile, the Chinese Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rate rose 1.1% in Q2, against the market consensus of a 0.9% increase. Moreover, Retail Sales increased by 4.8% YoY in June, against the 5.6% expected and 6.4% prior, while Industrial Production came in at 6.8%, against the 5.6% expected.The AUD/USD pair may face challenges as the US Dollar may regain its ground amid renewed geopolitical concerns. US President Donald Trump has threatened to impose “very severe” tariffs on Russia if no peace deal is reached within 50 days. Trump also warned of secondary tariffs on countries importing Russian Oil. Traders await China’s Q2 Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Industrial Production, and Retail Sales data later in the day.Australia’s Westpac Consumer Confidence climbed 0.6% month-over-month in July, following a 0.5% gain in June. Although the mood lifted slightly, the latest outcome underscored clear disappointment after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) unexpectedly kept rates unchanged at its July meeting.The RBA may maintain the interest rates at its next August meeting to get inflation on track to sustainably return to the 2-1/2% target. RBA Governor Michele Bullock stated that inflation risks persist, citing the elevated unit labor costs and weak productivity as factors that could drive inflation above current projections. Meanwhile, RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser highlighted growing global economic uncertainty and warned that the impact of tariffs on the world economy could be significant.Australian Dollar edges higher as US Dollar holds losses ahead of CPI dataThe US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the US Dollar against six major currencies, is holding losses at around 98.10 at the time of writing. Investors are likely awaiting June's Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Tuesday to gain fresh impetus over the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary outlook.President Trump, alongside NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, confirmed that European allies will purchase billions of dollars’ worth of American-made weapons, such as Patriot missile systems. These weapons will be transferred to Ukraine in the coming weeks to tackle intensified Russian attacks.The US government immediately imposed on Monday a 17% duty on most imports of fresh tomatoes from Mexico after negotiations ended without an agreement to avert the tariff. Trump announced, on Saturday, a 30% tariff on imports from the European Union (EU) and Mexico starting August 1. He also proposed a blanket tariff rate of 15%-20% on other trading partners, an increase from the current 10% baseline rate. In response, the European Union announced on Sunday that it will extend its pause on retaliatory measures against US tariffs until early August, in hopes of reaching a negotiated agreement.Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee stated that ongoing trade policy at the hands of Trump's constant tariff threats could hamper the ability of the Fed to deliver rate reductions that both the broader market and Trump himself want to see.The US government posted a $27 billion budget surplus in June, fueled by a surge in customs duties revenue, which reached a record $27.2 billion. This jump in tariff collections, largely stemming from policies introduced during the Trump administration, contributed to a 13% increase in total budget receipts, which rose to $526 billion. Meanwhile, federal spending declined by 7% to $499 billion.The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes from the June 17–18 meeting, released last week, indicated that policymakers largely maintained a wait-and-see stance regarding future interest rate decisions.China's Trade Balance arrived at CNY585.96 billion for June, narrowing from the previous figure of CNY743.56 billion. Chinese Exports climbed 7.2% year-over-year in June, following 6.3% in April. Meanwhile, imports increased 2.3% YoY in the same period, recovering from a previous decline of 2.1%.A Chinese customs spokesperson said that China’s Exports will continue to forge ahead in the next stage despite challenges. It is important to note that Chinese economic data could impact the AUD, as China is a major trading partner of Australia.The Reuters survey poll showed that 30 analysts forecasted the Reserve Bank of Australia to cut the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.60% in August. Australia’s four major banks, ANZ, CBA, NAB, and Westpac, also support the rate cut.Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers said that the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision to hold rates was neither the outcome millions of Australians had hoped for nor what markets had anticipated. Chalmers added that the central bank has signaled a clear direction on inflation and interest rates moving forward.Australian Dollar hovers around nine-day EMA near 0.6550The AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.6555 on Tuesday. The daily chart’s technical analysis indicated a persistent bullish sentiment as the pair is positioned within the ascending channel pattern. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains slightly above the 50 mark, strengthening the bullish bias. However, the pair is hovering around the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), indicating that short-term price momentum is neutral.On the upside, the AUD/USD pair could approach the eight-month high of 0.6595, which was reached on July 11. A break above this level could strengthen the bullish bias and support the pair to explore the region around the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 0.6690.The AUD/USD pair is testing its immediate support at the nine-day EMA of 0.6551, followed by the ascending channel’s lower boundary around 0.6520. A break below this channel would weaken the short-term price momentum and put downward pressure on the pair to navigate the area around the 50-day EMA at 0.6488, aligned with the three-week low at 0.6485.AUD/USD: Daily Chart Australian Dollar PRICE Today The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the British Pound. USD EUR GBP JPY CAD AUD NZD CHF USD -0.03% 0.02% -0.01% -0.02% 0.06% 0.00% -0.18% EUR 0.03% -0.02% -0.02% -0.01% 0.05% -0.02% -0.14% GBP -0.02% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00% 0.04% -0.03% 0.02% JPY 0.01% 0.02% 0.00% -0.03% 0.09% -0.03% -0.08% CAD 0.02% 0.01% -0.00% 0.03% 0.10% -0.06% 0.02% AUD -0.06% -0.05% -0.04% -0.09% -0.10% -0.09% -0.07% NZD -0.01% 0.02% 0.03% 0.03% 0.06% 0.09% 0.06% CHF 0.18% 0.14% -0.02% 0.08% -0.02% 0.07% -0.06% The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote). Economic Indicator Gross Domestic Product (YoY) The Gross Domestic Product (GDP), released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China on a monthly basis, is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced in China during a given period. The GDP is considered as the main measure of China’s economic activity. The YoY reading compares economic activity in the reference quarter compared with the same quarter a year earlier. Generally speaking, a rise in this indicator is bullish for the Renminbi (CNY), while a low reading is seen as bearish. Read more. Last release: Tue Jul 15, 2025 02:00 Frequency: Quarterly Actual: 5.2% Consensus: 5.1% Previous: 5.4% Source:

South Korea Trade Balance remains unchanged at $9.08B in June

China’s economy expanded at an annual rate of 5.2% in the second quarter (Q2) of 2025, compared to a 5.4% growth in the first quarter, the official data published by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed on Tuesday. Data beat the market forecast of 5.1% in the reported period.

China’s economy expanded at an annual rate of 5.2% in the second quarter (Q2) of 2025, compared to a 5.4% growth in the first quarter, the official data published by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed on Tuesday. Data beat the market forecast of 5.1% in the reported period.
More to come...

China Industrial Production (YoY) came in at 6.8%, above forecasts (5.6%) in June

China Gross Domestic Product (YoY) above expectations (5.1%) in 2Q: Actual (5.2%)

China Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) came in at 1.1%, above expectations (0.9%) in 2Q

China Fixed Asset Investment (YTD) (YoY) registered at 2.8%, below expectations (3.7%) in June

China Retail Sales (YoY) came in at 4.8% below forecasts (5.6%) in June

China House Price Index rose from previous -3.5% to -3.2% in June

China House Price Index up to -0.27% in June from previous -3.5%

The European Union (EU) is preparing tariffs on US goods, including aircraft, alcohol, coffee, and medical devices worth 72 billion euros ($84 billion) in case no trade deal is reached by August 1, per the Wall Street Journal.

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The Gold price (XAU/USD) gains ground to near $3,350 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. The precious metal edges higher amid safe-haven demand after US President Donald Trump threatened 100% Russia tariffs.

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The precious metal edges higher amid safe-haven demand after US President Donald Trump threatened 100% Russia tariffs. All eyes will be on the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data, which is due later on Tuesday. Trump late Monday threatened to impose 100% tariffs on Russia if President Vladimir Putin does not agree to a deal to end his invasion of Ukraine in 50 days. The US President added that the levies would come in the form of secondary tariffs, without providing details. Geopolitical risks could boost the Gold price, a traditional safe-haven asset, in the near term.  Nonetheless, the cautious stance of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) might undermine the yellow metal. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that he expects inflation to increase this summer as a result of tariffs, which is seen as keeping the US central bank on hold until later in the year. Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said that fresh tariffs unveiled by Trump have further muddied the inflation outlook, making it more difficult for him to support the rate cuts that the President has pressed for.Gold traders await the US CPI data later on Tuesday, as it might offer some hints about the future path for US interest rates. Economists expect US inflation to have picked up slightly last month. However, any signs of softer-than-expected inflation could raise Fed rate cut expectations, supporting the non-yielding Gold price.  Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Tuesday at 7.1498 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1491 and 7.1758 Reuters estimate.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Tuesday at 7.1498 as compared to the previous day's fix of 7.1491 and 7.1758 Reuters estimate. PBOC FAQs What does the People's Bank of China do? The primary monetary policy objectives of the People's Bank of China (PBoC) are to safeguard price stability, including exchange rate stability, and promote economic growth. China’s central bank also aims to implement financial reforms, such as opening and developing the financial market. Who owns the PBoC? The PBoC is owned by the state of the People's Republic of China (PRC), so it is not considered an autonomous institution. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Committee Secretary, nominated by the Chairman of the State Council, has a key influence on the PBoC’s management and direction, not the governor. However, Mr. Pan Gongsheng currently holds both of these posts. What are the main policy tools used by the PBoC? Unlike the Western economies, the PBoC uses a broader set of monetary policy instruments to achieve its objectives. The primary tools include a seven-day Reverse Repo Rate (RRR), Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF), foreign exchange interventions and Reserve Requirement Ratio (RRR). However, The Loan Prime Rate (LPR) is China’s benchmark interest rate. Changes to the LPR directly influence the rates that need to be paid in the market for loans and mortgages and the interest paid on savings. By changing the LPR, China’s central bank can also influence the exchange rates of the Chinese Renminbi. Are private banks allowed in China? Yes, China has 19 private banks – a small fraction of the financial system. The largest private banks are digital lenders WeBank and MYbank, which are backed by tech giants Tencent and Ant Group, per The Straits Times. In 2014, China allowed domestic lenders fully capitalized by private funds to operate in the state-dominated financial sector.

US President Donald Trump late Monday threatened to impose 100% tariffs” on Russia if President Vladimir Putin does not agree to a deal to end his invasion of Ukraine in 50 days, per Bloomberg. Trump added that the levies would come in the form of “secondary tariffs,” without providing details.  

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Japan 10-year Government Bond Yields (JGB) climbed to near 1.59%, the highest since 2008, in Tuesday’s early Asian session.  Traders brace for a potential power shift in upper house elections this weekend that could accelerate fiscal spending and drive super-long bond yields higher.

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Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence: 0.6% (July) vs 0.5%

The USD/CAD pair holds steady around 1.3705 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. Traders largely shrugged off fresh tariffs ahead of Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data from the United States (US) and Canada on Tuesday.

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Traders largely shrugged off fresh tariffs ahead of Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data from the United States (US) and Canada on Tuesday.Last week, US President Donald Trump announced a 35% tariff rate for goods imported from Canada, beginning August 1. The new measures come on top of existing 50% tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum. Additionally, Trump also imposed a new 50% tariff on US copper imports, beginning on the same period. Concerns that US tariffs would impact the Canadian economy could undermine the Loonie, as Canada is a major trading partner and a significant supplier of copper to the US.On the other hand, the upbeat Canadian June employment data could boost the Canadian Dollar (CAD) against the Greenback. Statistics Canada revealed on Friday that the Unemployment Rate in Canada ticked lower to 6.9% in June from 7.0% in May. This figure came in stronger than the 7.1% expected. Meanwhile, the Canadian economy added 83.1K jobs in June versus 8.8K prior. Economists were expecting no change in employment. Money markets have priced in nearly an 84% chance that the Bank of Canada will hold the interest rate in the July meeting, according to Reuters. The BoC is anticipated to reduce rates in the second half of the year. Still, it will be difficult for BoC policymakers to chart a rate path, given all the economic uncertainty. Canadian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Canadian Dollar? The key factors driving the Canadian Dollar (CAD) are the level of interest rates set by the Bank of Canada (BoC), the price of Oil, Canada’s largest export, the health of its economy, inflation and the Trade Balance, which is the difference between the value of Canada’s exports versus its imports. Other factors include market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – with risk-on being CAD-positive. As its largest trading partner, the health of the US economy is also a key factor influencing the Canadian Dollar. How do the decisions of the Bank of Canada impact the Canadian Dollar? The Bank of Canada (BoC) has a significant influence on the Canadian Dollar by setting the level of interest rates that banks can lend to one another. This influences the level of interest rates for everyone. The main goal of the BoC is to maintain inflation at 1-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively higher interest rates tend to be positive for the CAD. The Bank of Canada can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former CAD-negative and the latter CAD-positive. How does the price of Oil impact the Canadian Dollar? The price of Oil is a key factor impacting the value of the Canadian Dollar. Petroleum is Canada’s biggest export, so Oil price tends to have an immediate impact on the CAD value. Generally, if Oil price rises CAD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Oil falls. Higher Oil prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance, which is also supportive of the CAD. How does inflation data impact the value of the Canadian Dollar? While inflation had always traditionally been thought of as a negative factor for a currency since it lowers the value of money, the opposite has actually been the case in modern times with the relaxation of cross-border capital controls. Higher inflation tends to lead central banks to put up interest rates which attracts more capital inflows from global investors seeking a lucrative place to keep their money. This increases demand for the local currency, which in Canada’s case is the Canadian Dollar. How does economic data influence the value of the Canadian Dollar? Macroeconomic data releases gauge the health of the economy and can have an impact on the Canadian Dollar. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the CAD. A strong economy is good for the Canadian Dollar. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Canada to put up interest rates, leading to a stronger currency. If economic data is weak, however, the CAD is likely to fall.

GBP/USD sank further on Monday, closing lower for a seventh consecutive market session and slipping back below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for the first time since mid-April.

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Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, also known as ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

Japan and the European Union (EU) plan to issue a joint statement aimed at deepening their economic partnership, with a particular focus on trade, advanced technology, and greater supply chain coordination, per Japanese media Yomiuri. 

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West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $65.90 during the early Asian trading hours on Tuesday. The WTI price edges higher amid concerns over the United States' sanctions on Russia that may affect global supplies.

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The WTI price edges higher amid concerns over the United States' sanctions on Russia that may affect global supplies.US President Donald Trump late Monday announced new weapons for Ukraine and threatened sanctions on buyers of Russian exports unless Russia agrees to a peace deal in 50 days. A White House official said Trump was referring to 100% tariffs on Russian exports as well as so-called secondary sanctions, which target third countries that buy a country's exports.Last week, Trump said that he would make a "major statement" on Russia on Monday, expressing his frustration with Russian President Vladimir Putin over the lack of progress in ending the war in Ukraine.Furthermore, firming demand signals from China might contribute to the WTI’s upside. China’s crude imports hit a 10-month high,  rising 7.4% on the year in June to 12.14 million barrels per day, according to customs data released on Monday. This figure registered the highest since August 2023. On the other hand, the uncertainty surrounding Trump’s tariff might weigh on the WTI price. Investors will closely monitor the outcome of US trade negotiations with key trading partners. The European Union (EU) and South Korea said on Monday they were working on trade deals with the US that would soften the blow from looming tariffs as Washington threatens to impose levies from August 1. Intensifying US tariff pressures could undermine the price of black gold, as tariffs can lead to trade wars, slowing down global trade and economic activity. WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
 

Silver price forms a ‘shooting star’ candle chart pattern amid a day in which precious metals were pressured as traders priced in initial risk-off sentiment.

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However, they faded the move, amid fears that the White House might backpedal, as they could reach trade agreements with Canada, the EU, and Mexico ahead of the August 1 deadline. The XAG/USD trades at 38.14, down 0.66%.XAG/USD Price Forecast: Technical outlookThe grey metal is upward biased, despite falling below the $39.00 figure after reaching multi-year highs at $39.12. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) depicts that buyers are still in control, even though XAG/USD dipped toward $38.00.For a bullish continuation, Silver traders need to push prices back above $38.50 and test the $39.00 figure. A breach of the latter would pave the way to refresh yearly highs.Conversely, if Silver tumbles below the June 18 high of $37.31, expect further downside and a possible test of the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $36.69. On further weakness, the $36.00 figure is up next.XAG/USD Price Chart – Daily Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.

The EUR/USD remains pressured during the North American session, below the 1.1700 figure as the Dollar got boosted by Trump unveiling new tariff letters on two of its largest trade partners, increasing appetite for haven assets. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 1.1667, down 0.15%.

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At the time of writing, the pair trades at 1.1667, down 0.15%.US President Donald Trump revealed levies of 30% on the European Union (EU) and Mexico last weekend. Initially, investors' sentiment deteriorated, but traders seem to be fading from Trump’s decision, amid speculation that Washington could backpedal on trade decisions.Analysts cited by Reuters revealed that “Markets are really not willing to play the ups and downs of Trump’s communications on tariffs.” Traders are waiting for the release of inflation figures for June in the United States, Federal Reserve speeches, and Retail Sales data.Across the pond, the EU revealed that it will extend its suspension of retaliatory duties on the United States (US) until early August, to keep communication channels open. The docket in the week would feature Industrial Production and the ZEW Survey Economic Sentiment for May and July, respectively, alongside the release of the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for June.In response to the tariff threats, the EU announced on Sunday that it will extend its suspension of retaliatory tariffs against the United States until early August, aiming to keep diplomatic channels open.Daily digest market movers: Euro pressured as Trump sent tariff letter to EUEconomic data from the United States will be crucial. The release of June’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to rise from 2.4% to 2.7% YoY. Core CPI is projected to hit the 3% threshold, from 2.8% to 3% YoY.  If the readings come as expected, it justifies the Federal Reserve’s current monetary policy stance, amid speculation that inflation could be persistent.Traders are awaiting the release of June’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) in the United States, with annual inflation expected to rise from 2.4% to 2.7%. Core CPI is projected to accelerate to 3.0% year-over-year, up from 2.8%, remaining well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. The data is likely to reinforce the Fed’s current cautious stance, especially as officials have warned that tariffs could fuel another wave of inflation.Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack reinforced her hawkish stance, stating that she sees the economy as healthy and is open-minded about the July Fed meeting. She noted that inflation has made progress toward the 2% goal, but it remains too high.The EU May Industrial Production is expected to improve from -2.4% to 0.9%. The ZEW Survey of Economic Sentiment for July is projected at 37.8, up from 35.3. June Core HICP is expected at 2.3% YoY, unchanged compared to May. Headline HICP is expected to remain unchanged at 2%.Euro technical outlook: EUR/USD clears 20-day SMA, further downside eyedIn the near term, the EUR/USD is neutral to bearishly biased, as the pair dipped below the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of 1.1677. As it achieves a daily close below the latter, sellers must clear the next support seen at 1.1650, before testing 1.1600. Up next lies the 50-day SMA at 1.1477.From a momentum standpoint, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approaching its neutral line. Hence, a drop below its 50-neutral line could accelerate the pair’s drop.For a bullish resumption, buyers must hurdle the 1.1700 figure before the July 10 high of 1.1749, followed by 1.1800 and the YTD high of 1.1829. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 19 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.
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