Forex News Timeline

Friday, March 31, 2023

The NZD/USD pair gains positive traction for the second successive day and touched its highest level since February 16 on Friday, albeit faces rejecti

NZD/USD scales higher for the second straight day and touches its highest level since February 16.The prevalent risk-on environment benefits the risk-sensitive Kiwi amid subdued USD price action.Bulls, however, turn cautious and look to the crucial US Core PCE Price Index for a fresh impetus.The NZD/USD pair gains positive traction for the second successive day and touched its highest level since February 16 on Friday, albeit faces rejection near the 0.6300 mark. Spot prices trade around the 0.6270-0.6275 region during the early European session and now seem to have found acceptance above a technically significant 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). The prevalent risk-on environment - as depicted by a generally positive tone around the equity markets - turns out to be a key factor lending support to the NZD/USD pair. Against the backdrop of easing fears of a full-blown banking crisis, hopes for a strong economic recovery in China boost investors' confidence and benefit the risk-sensitive Kiwi. In fact, the official Chinese PMI data showed that business activity in the services sector grew at its fastest pace in 12 years in March. Meanwhile, the growth in the manufacturing sector moderated a bit during the reported month, albeit at a smaller-than-expected pace. The US Dollar (USD), on the other hand, struggles to gain any traction amid the uncertainty over the Federal Reserve's rate-hike path, which provides an additional lift to the NZD/USD pair. It is worth recalling that the Fed had signalled recently that it might soon pause the rate-hiking cycle in the wake of the turmoil in the banking sector. That said, hopes that a widespread banking crisis might have been averted fueled speculations that the US central bank might move back to its inflation-fighting rate hikes. Furthermore, three Fed officials on Thursday backed the case for more rate increases to lower high levels of inflation. This, in turn, is holding back traders from placing aggressive bearish bets around the USD and acting as a headwind for the NZD/USD pair, at least for the time being. Investors also seem reluctant and prefer to move on the sidelines ahead of the release of the US Core PCE Price Index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge later during the early North American session. The data will play a key role in influencing expectations about the next policy move. This, in turn, should drive the USD demand in the near term and help determine the next leg of a directional move for the major. Technical levels to watch  

Since the middle of February, NZD/USD has traded within a relatively tight range between 0.61 and 0.63. Economists at ANZ bank forecast the pair at 0.

Since the middle of February, NZD/USD has traded within a relatively tight range between 0.61 and 0.63. Economists at ANZ bank forecast the pair at 0.66 by the end of the year. Kiwi to appreciate mildly further over the course of 2023 “We still see the RBNZ hiking the OCR to a peak of 5.25% by May 2023 and holding it there until at least the end of 2024. But the tight labour market and uncertain impact of the recent cyclone pose upside risks to the outlook for both inflation and the OCR.” “Our forecasts have the Kiwi appreciating mildly further over the course of 2023, but imbalances like the current account deficit are weighing on sentiment.” “We see the NZD/USD pair finishing the year at 0.66.”  

Turkey Trade Balance rose from previous -14.24B to -12.08B in February

Economists at Goldman Sachs upgrade their three and six-month forecasts for the EUR/USD pair. However, they stick to their 12-month forecast of 1.10.

Economists at Goldman Sachs upgrade their three and six-month forecasts for the EUR/USD pair. However, they stick to their 12-month forecast of 1.10. Less favorable tightening mix for the Dollar in the near term “We are revising up our three and six-month EUR/USD forecasts to 1.05 (from 1.02 previously) to account for the recent deterioration in the US growth outlook and less favorable tightening mix for the Dollar.” “We are maintaining our 12-month EUR/USD forecast at 1.10; we expect that still-limited economic slack and rising recession risks cut against more meaningful Dollar downside.”  

USD/CHF pares the first daily gain in three around 0.9135 as the market’s anxiety ahead of the key US inflation data escalates during the initial hour

USD/CHF bounces off one-week low to print the first daily gain in three, retreats from intraday high of late.Clear downside break of 13-day-old previous support, bearish MACD signals keep sellers hopeful.50-EMA, descending resistance line from early March challenge Swiss Franc pair buyers.USD/CHF pares the first daily gain in three around 0.9135 as the market’s anxiety ahead of the key US inflation data escalates during the initial hour of Friday’s European session. In doing so, the Swiss Franc (CHF) pair reverses from the previous support line from mid-March. Not only the failure to cross the support-turned-resistance but the bearish MACD signals also weigh on the USD/CHF price. As a result, the Swiss currency pair sellers are well-set to challenge an upward-sloping support line from early February, around 0.9110 by the press time. It should be noted that a clear break of the said key support line will need validation from the 0.9100 round figure and the previous monthly low of around 0.9060 to convince the USD/CHF bears to prod the 0.9000 psychological magnet. Meanwhile, an upside break of the aforementioned previous support line, close to 0.9150, isn’t an open invitation to the USD/CHF bulls. The reason could be linked to the presence of a convergence of the 50-bar Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and a downward-sloping resistance line from March 09, close to 0.9190. Even if the USD/CHF bulls manage to cross the 0.9190 resistance confluence, the 0.9200 round figure and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of its February-March upside, near 0.9205, may act as an extra check for the buyers. USD/CHF: Four-hour chart Trend: Further downside expected  

Here is what you need to know on Friday, March 31: The US Dollar continued to weaken against its rivals on Thursday as risk flows dominated the action

Here is what you need to know on Friday, March 31: The US Dollar continued to weaken against its rivals on Thursday as risk flows dominated the action in financial markets. Eurostat will release the preliminary Harmonized Consumer Price Index (HICP) data for March on Friday alongside the February Unemployment Rate. Later in the day, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation, will be featured in the US economic docket. Since this will be the last day of the month as well as the first quarter, position adjustments could ramp up the volatility and trigger wild fluctuations ahead of the weekend. Wall Street's main indexes closed in positive territory on Thursday led by strong gains recorded in technology and real estate stocks. Following Wednesday's modest rebound, the US Dollar Index (DXY) stayed under bearish pressure and registered its lowest daily close since early February slightly above 102.00. Early Friday, the DXY clings to small recovery gains but struggles to gather bullish momentum.  The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) announced on Thursday that it revised the annualized Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for the fourth quarter to 2.6% from 2.7% in the previous estimate. The annual Core PCE inflation in the US is forecast to remain unchanged at 4.7% in February.US February PCE Inflation Preview: Bad news for the Dollar, good news for the Fed?EUR/USD climbed above 1.0900 in the American session on Thursday before going into a consolidation phase in the Asian session on Friday. The data from Germany showed earlier in the day that Retail Sales declined by 1.3% oın a monthly basis in February. This reading came in much worse than the market expectation for an increase of 0.5% but was largely ignored by market participants. Meanwhile, Annual HICP in France declined to 6.6% in March from 7.3% in February, compared to the market expectation of 6.5%. Euro area HICP Preview: Peak inflation or base effects? No trade-off for ECB (for now).GBP/USD climbed to its highest level in three months above 1.2420 in the early Asian session before staging a technical correction and retreating below 1.2400 in the European morning. The UK's Office for National Statistics reported on Friday that the GDP expanded by 0.6% on a yearly basis in the fourth-quarter following the 0.4% growth recorded in the first quarter. This reading surpassed the market expectation of 0.4% and helped Pound Sterling stay resilient against its rivals. Following Wednesday's modest pullback, USD/JPY regained its traction and rose above 133.00 on Friday. The data from Japan showed that Industrial Production increased by 4.5% on a monthly basis in February. Additionally, Tokyo Consumer Price Index edged higher to 3.4% on a yearly basis in March from 3.2% in February.Gold price recovered decisively on Thursday and continued to stretch higher early Friday. XAU/USD was last seen trading slightly above $1,980.Bitcoin reversed its direction after having climbed above $29,000 and closed in negative territory on Thursday. BTC/USD was last seen moving sideways at around $27,000. Ethereum struggled to find direction on Thursday and extended its sideways grind near $1,800 to start the last day of the week.

Economists at TD Securities expect the EUR/PLN pair to hover around 4.65 before ticking down toward 4.60 by the end of the year. EUR/PLN to trade in a

Economists at TD Securities expect the EUR/PLN pair to hover around 4.65 before ticking down toward 4.60 by the end of the year. EUR/PLN to trade in a stable regime around 4.65 “We forecast EUR/PLN to trade in a stable regime around 4.65.” “Over the long term, we continue to hold a positive view on the Zloty and think that EUR/PLN will fall back to 4.60 by the end of 2023.” See: EUR/PLN to drift down to around 4.65 by end-2023 before rising again toward 4.80 in 2024 – Commerzbank

France Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (MoM) registered at 0.9% above expectations (0.8%) in March

France Consumer Price Index (EU norm) (YoY) came in at 6.6%, above forecasts (6.5%) in March

France Consumer Spending (MoM) came in at -0.8% below forecasts (-0.4%) in February

France Producer Prices (MoM) came in at -0.9%, below expectations (1.6%) in February

Silver price (XAG/USD) pares weekly gains at the highest levels in two months, mildly offered near $23.85 heading into Friday’s European session. In d

Silver price retreats from two-month high, snaps three-day winning streak.Fortnight-old bullish channel restricts immediate downside ahead of the key SMAs.Overbought RSI suggests further pullback in XAG/USD price but bears are far from sight.Silver price (XAG/USD) pares weekly gains at the highest levels in two months, mildly offered near $23.85 heading into Friday’s European session. In doing so, the bright metal prints the first daily loss in four ahead of the key inflation data from Eurozone and the US. Also read: Gold Price Forecast: Inflation data, $1,973 support to restrain XAU/USD bears – Confluence Detector The precious metal’s latest weakness could be linked to a pullback from the resistance line of a two-week-old bullish channel. The XAG/USD retreat also justifies the overbought RSI (14). However, bullish MACD signals and the stated channel formation keep the Silver bears off the table unless the quote breaks the $23.30 mark, comprising the stated channel’s lower line. Even so, the 100-SMA and 200-SMA can challenge the bullion’s additional downside near $22.30 and $21.70. Should the Silver price remains bearish past $21.70, the odds of witnessing a slump toward the $20.00 round figure and then to the monthly low of $19.90 can’t be ruled out. On the flip side, XAG/USD recovery needs to cross the immediate channel’s top line, close to $24.05 at the latest. However, the yearly high marked in February around $24.65 can challenge the Silver buyers before giving back control to them. Silver: Four-hour chart Trend: Limited downside expected  

Switzerland Real Retail Sales (YoY) came in at 0.3% below forecasts (1.9%) in February

Canada will release January Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data on Friday, March 31 at 12:30 GMT as we get closer to the release time, here are forecast

Canada will release January Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data on Friday, March 31 at 12:30 GMT as we get closer to the release time, here are forecasts from economists and researchers of four major banks regarding the upcoming growth data.  January GDP is expected at 2.9% year-on-year vs. 2.3% in December. On a monthly basis, growth is expected to be at 0.4% vs. 0.1% in the previous month. CIBC “The 0.6% gain in monthly GDP we forecast would be a few ticks better than the advance estimate, although early indications for February point to a modest giveback during that month.” TDS “We look for January GDP to print above flash estimates at +0.4%. Growth should be broad-based, with unseasonably warm weather providing a tailwind. A 0.4% print would leave Q1 GDP tracking well above BoC forecasts, though financial stability concerns take precedent for the moment. We look at somewhat larger deficit projections in the budget compared to the Fall Economic Statement.” NBF “Judging from industry-level reports published to date, economic output may have increased 0.3% in the month, as gains for mining/quarrying/oil and gas extraction, manufacturing, wholesale and transportation/warehousing were likely partially offset by declines for construction and retail.” RBC Economics “Canadian GDP is expected to tick higher 0.3% MoM.”  

Open interest in gold futures markets rose by nearly 2K contracts after three consecutive daily drops on Thursday according to preliminary readings fr

Open interest in gold futures markets rose by nearly 2K contracts after three consecutive daily drops on Thursday according to preliminary readings from CME Group. Volume, instead, shrank for the fourth session in a row, now by around 53.1K contracts. Gold remains focused on the $2000 mark and above Thursday’s marked uptick in gold prices was on the back of increasing open interest and is supportive of the continuation of the upward bias in the very near term. In the meantime, the next hurdle of note for the precious metal emerges at the 2023 high at $2009 per ounce troy (March 20).

GBP/USD shows little reaction to better-than-forecast UK economic growth numbers during early Friday. The reason could be linked to the market’s cauti

GBP/USD takes offers to refresh intraday low after reversing from nine-week high.UK Q4 GDP rose past 0.4% previous forecasts to 0.6% YoY.British trade deal with Trans-Atlantic nations, Brexit optimism joins receding hawkish Fed bets to favor Cable buyers.Market sentiment remains divided as traders brace for Fed’s favorite inflation data.GBP/USD shows little reaction to better-than-forecast UK economic growth numbers during early Friday. The reason could be linked to the market’s cautious mood ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation gauge. That said, the UK’s fourth quarter (Q4) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) came in at 0.1% QoQ versus 0.0% prior forecasts while the yearly figures appear more impressive with 0.6% YoY growth for the Q4 GDP compared to 0.4% earlier estimations. It’s worth noting that the UK’s National Housing Prices for March and Total Business Investment for the Q4 appear dismal and might have probed the GBP/USD bulls ahead of the key US data. Also read: UK Final GDP revised up to 0.1% QoQ in Q4 vs. 0% expected Even so, optimism surrounding the UK’s £ 1.8 billion trade deal with Trans-Pacific nations joins the Brexit optimism to favor the bulls. In this regard, the Financial Times (FT) said, “The UK on Friday unveiled an agreement to join an 11-member Asia-Pacific trade bloc, with British prime minister Rishi Sunak claiming it proved his government was seizing ‘post-Brexit freedoms’.” Also positive was the news suggesting the higher inflation and the Bank of England’s (BoE) hawkish concerns as Reuters said, “British businesses were their most confident this month since May 2022 and pricing expectations, which are being watched by the Bank of England as it grapples with high inflation, cooled to a six-month low, a survey showed on Friday.” On the other hand, easing hawkish Fed bets and mixed US data, as well as receding pessimism surrounding the global banking sector seem to weigh on the US Dollar ahead of the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index for February. It’s worth noting that the US Treasury bond yields’ latest retreat allows the US Dollar to pare recent losses and weigh on the GBP/USD as traders wait for inflation data amid hawkish Fed talks. Technical analysis Although the overbought RSI (14) might have triggered the GBP/USD pair’s pullback, the 10-week-old horizontal resistance-turned-support around 1.2285-65 appears a tough nut to crack for the Cable bears to break.  

In the opinion of Markets Strategist Quek Ser Leang and Senior FX Strategist Peter Chia at UOB Group, GBP/USD could now pick up pace and revisit the 1

In the opinion of Markets Strategist Quek Ser Leang and Senior FX Strategist Peter Chia at UOB Group, GBP/USD could now pick up pace and revisit the 1.2450 region in the near term. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “Our view for GBP to edge lower yesterday was incorrect as it rose to 1.2393 before ending the day at 1.2387 (+0.59%). While upward momentum has increased, GBP has to break the major resistance at 1.2400 before a sustained advance is likely. The chance of GBP breaking above 1.2400 is on the high side. That said, the next resistance at 1.2450 is a significant level and might not be easy to breach. The upside risk is intact as long as GBP stays above 1.2340 (minor support is at 1.2365).” Next 1-3 weeks: “Two days ago (29 Mar, spot at 1.2330), we highlighted that ‘upward momentum appears to be building but GBP has to break and stay above 1.2400 before a sustained advance is likely’. We added, ‘The likelihood of a clear break of 1.2400 is not high for now but it will remain intact as long as GBP stays above 1.2240 in the next 1-2 days’. Yesterday, GBP rose to a high of 1.2393. While GBP did not break 1.2400, the vastly improved upward momentum suggests GBP is likely to head higher to 1.2450. A breakthrough this significant resistance level could potentially lead to an upward acceleration. On the downside, the ‘strong support’ level has moved higher to 1.2300 from 1.2240. Looking ahead, the next level to watch above 1.2450 is at 1.2550.”

United Kingdom Total Business Investment (YoY) below expectations (13.2%) in 4Q: Actual (10.8%)

EUR/USD has corrected gradually to near 1.0900 after failing to surpass Thursday’s high around 1.0926 in the early European session. The major currenc

EUR/USD has corrected to near 1.0900 as investors have turned anxious ahead of Eurozone HICP and US PCE Price Index.Federal Reserve policymakers have continued favoring rate-hiking spell to tame persistent US inflation.European Central Bank would announce more rate hikes as Eurozone inflation is expected to remain persistent due to a shortage of labor.EUR/USD has formed a Double Top pattern but needs to clear more filters for validation.EUR/USD has corrected gradually to near 1.0900 after failing to surpass Thursday’s high around 1.0926 in the early European session. The major currency pair has sensed selling pressure as investors have turned cautious ahead of the release of the Eurozone preliminary Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) and United States core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index data. The US Dollar Index (DXY) has shown signs of recovery, building a cushion above 102.10. The downside bets for the USD Index have been trimmed as investors are anticipating a rate hike in May monetary policy meeting by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The approach for May policy has changed swiftly as waning fears of further casualty in the US banking system have opened room for the continuation of a policy-tightening spell by the Federal Reserve. Meanwhile, gains generated by the S&P500 futures in the Asian session are halved now as investors are getting anxious ahead of the release of the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation tool. However, the overall market mood is quite bullish. The demand for US government bonds has turned subdued as investors are shrugging off the US banking collapse event. The 10-year US Treasury yields are choppy around 3.55%. Odds for a steady Federal Reserve policy have trimmed Ebbing fears of further US banking turmoil have infused enormous confidence among market participants. Investors are not anticipating any recession warnings amid waning baking jitters, which has supported demand for US equities. Fading banking jitters have also restored confidence among Federal Reserve policymakers that the hiking spell can be continued to tame persistent US inflation. In a private meeting with US lawmakers, Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell cited that he anticipates one more rate hike in 2023. As per the CME Fedwatch tool, chances of a 25 basis points (bp) rate hike have scaled above 53%, which will push rates to 5.00-5.25%. Adding to that, Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin said on Thursday that he is content with the current trajectory set by the FOMC of evaluating whether a 25 bps interest rate hike is required at each meeting. According to Barkin, there is a lot of money available for spending among households. He further added, “It is possible that tightening credit conditions, along with the lagged effect of our rate moves, will bring inflation down relatively quickly. But I still think it could take time for inflation to return to target.” For further clarity, investors will keep an eye on US core PCE Price Index data. Analysts at Wells Fargo have forecasted the PCE deflator (+0.4%) to outpace nominal spending (+0.3%). Higher labor shortage cements further acceleration in Eurozone Inflation Considering cues from the German HICP released on Thursday, it is highly likely that Eurozone headline inflation would soften dramatically led by lower energy prices. As per the consensus, the Eurozone headline HICP is expected to soften to 7.1% from the former release of 8.5%. The economic indicator that could propel the need of more rate hikes from the European Central Bank (ECB) is the extreme shortage of labor in the Eurozone. Bargaining power has shifted to talent due to a shortage of job seekers, which also allowed wage growth to scale higher. The Labor cost index in Eurozone is shuffling between 5% and 6%, the highest in decades, as reported by Reuters. Therefore, core Eurozone Inflation data could turn sticky further as households are equipped with sufficient funds for disposal. The street is anticipating that European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will hike rates further ahead. EUR/USD technical outlook EUR/USD is forming a Double Top chart pattern near 1.0926 on an hourly scale, which indicates an absence of sheer buying interest while surpassing previous highs. The Double Top chart pattern has not been triggered yet as the asset is continued with higher highs and higher lows structure. This could be a corrective move after a perpendicular rally by the Euro. The critical support is plotted around 1.0890 whose breakdown could activate the Double Top formation. Upward-sloping 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0890 is providing a cushion to the Euro. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) has slipped into the 40.00-60.00 range from the bullish range of 60.00-80.00, which indicates a loss in the upside momentum.  

The UK economy expanded by 0.1% on the quarter in the final three months of 2022 vs. 0% prior, the final revision confirmed on Friday. The market cons

The UK economy expanded by 0.1% on the quarter in the final three months of 2022 vs. 0% prior, the final revision confirmed on Friday. The market consensus stood at 0% in the fourth quarter. Britain’s annual GDP rate grew by 0.6% in Q4 vs. 0.4% printed in the first estimate while missing 0.4% expectations. About the UK GDP The Gross Domestic Product released by the Office for National Statistics is a measure of the total value of all goods and services produced by the UK. The GDP is considered a broad measure of the UK's economic activity. Generally speaking, a rising trend has a positive effect on the GBP, while a falling trend is seen as negative (or bearish).

United Kingdom Total Business Investment (YoY) came in at 1.08% below forecasts (13.2%) in 4Q

United Kingdom Total Business Investment (QoQ) below expectations (4.8%) in 4Q: Actual (-0.2%)

United Kingdom Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) came in at 0.1%, above forecasts (0%) in 4Q

According to the official figures released by Destatis on Friday, Germany's Retail Sales dropped by 1.3% MoM in February versus 0.5% expected and -0.3

German Retail Sales plunged 7.1% YoY in February vs. -5.2% expected.Retail Sales in Germany came in at -1.3% MoM in February vs. 0.5% expected.According to the official figures released by Destatis on Friday, Germany's Retail Sales dropped by 1.3% MoM in February versus 0.5% expected and -0.3% previous. On an annualized basis, the bloc’s Retail Sales tumbled 7.1% in February versus the -5.2% expected and a 6.9% decline seen in January. more to come ...

Germany Retail Sales (YoY) below forecasts (-5.2%) in February: Actual (-7.1%)

United Kingdom Gross Domestic Product (YoY) above expectations (0.4%) in 4Q: Actual (0.6%)

Germany Retail Sales (MoM) came in at -1.3%, below expectations (0.5%) in February

Germany Import Price Index (YoY) below forecasts (4.2%) in February: Actual (2.8%)

United Kingdom Nationwide Housing Prices s.a (MoM) came in at -0.8% below forecasts (-0.3%) in March

Denmark Gross Domestic Product (YoY) increased to 1.6% in 4Q from previous 1.5%

Denmark Gross Domestic Product (QoQ): 0.6% (4Q) vs previous 0.9%

United Kingdom Nationwide Housing Prices n.s.a (YoY) below forecasts (-2.2%) in March: Actual (-3.1%)

Germany Import Price Index (MoM) came in at -2.4% below forecasts (-1%) in February

United Kingdom Current Account above expectations (£-17.6B) in 4Q: Actual (£-2.483B)

Gold price bounced off key support in a pennant formation, resistance at $1,993 holds the key, FXStreet’s Dhwani Mehta reports. XAU/USD needs acceptan

Gold price bounced off key support in a pennant formation, resistance at $1,993 holds the key, FXStreet’s Dhwani Mehta reports. XAU/USD needs acceptance above $1,993 for further upside “Should the rebound pick up steam, Gold price could aim to take out the falling trendline resistance at $1,993. A daily closing above the latter is needed to confirm an upside break from a pennant formation. Doors will then open up for a test of the $2,000 mark, above which the yearly high at $2,010 will be threatened. The next relevant upside target for Gold bulls is seen at the $2,050 psychological level.” “Failure to sustain the renewed upside will trigger a fresh decline toward strong trendline support, now at $1,959. A sustained break below the latter will validate a pennant breakdown, exposing the $1,950 round level. Gold sellers will then target the previous week’s low at $1,935 should the downside momentum accelerate.”  

Gold price (XAU/USD) pares weekly losses while easing from an intraday high to $1,980 during early Friday morning in Europe. In doing so, the yellow m

Gold price retreats from weekly top as pre-data anxiety escalates.EU, US inflation becomes crucial for XAU/USD amid looming banking crisis, hawkish central bank talks.Upbeat China data, easing hawkish Fed bets fail to impress Gold buyers.Pullback remains elusive beyond $1,973; XAU/USD bulls can stay hopeful beyond $1,960.Gold price (XAU/USD) pares weekly losses while easing from an intraday high to $1,980 during early Friday morning in Europe. In doing so, the yellow metal traces the market’s consolidation ahead of the key Eurozone and the US inflation clues. Also likely to have weighed on the Gold price could be the recent hawkish comments from the Fed policymakers, including Chairman Jerome Powell. However, the recently firmer China official PMIs for March and receding fears of a banking crisis join easing hawkish Fed bets to keep the Gold buyers hopeful. On the same line are the mixed US data and the US Dollar’s rejection from Brazil and China. Even so, the XAU/USD bears aren’t off the table as central bankers remain ready for more rate hikes, if needed to tame the inflation woes. As a result, today’s Eurozone Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for March and the United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index for February will be closely watched for clear directions. Also read: Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD needs acceptance above $1,993 for further upside, United States PCE eyed Gold Price: Key levels to watch As per our Technical Confluence Indicator, the Gold price retreats towards the short-term key support surrounding $1,973, comprising 10-DMA and Fibonacci 38.2% on one day. Should the XAU/USD bears manage to conquer the $1,973 support, Fibonacci 38.2% on one week joins the Pivot Point one-day S1 to highlight $1,964 as another important level to watch before giving control to the bears. Further south, $1,960 level including the previous monthly high acts as the last defense of the Gold buyers. On the contrary, Fibonacci 61.8% on one week joins the upper Bollinger bank on the four-hour to restrict immediate upside of the Gold price. Following that, Pivot Point one-day R1 could act as an extra check for the XAU/USD bulls around $1,993 before directing the Gold price towards the $2,000 psychological magnet. Here is how it looks on the tool About Technical Confluences Detector The TCD (Technical Confluences Detector) is a tool to locate and point out those price levels where there is a congestion of indicators, moving averages, Fibonacci levels, Pivot Points, etc.  If you are a short-term trader, you will find entry points for counter-trend strategies and hunt a few points at a time. If you are a medium-to-long-term trader, this tool will allow you to know in advance the price levels where a medium-to-long-term trend may stop and rest, where to unwind positions, or where to increase your position size.

FX option expiries for Mar 31 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.0700 1.6b 1.0800 1.8b 1.0850 1.2b 1

FX option expiries for Mar 31 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below. - EUR/USD: EUR amounts         1.0700 1.6b 1.0800 1.8b 1.0850 1.2b 1.0900 648m 1.0950 1.1b 1.1000 532m - GBP/USD: GBP amounts      1.2000 515m 1.2100 693m - USD/JPY: USD amounts                      130.00 762m 131.00 1.0b 132.00 665m 133.85 655m 136.20 1.3b - AUD/USD: AUD amounts   0.6550 808m - USD/CAD: USD amounts        1.3600 1.5b 1.3900 1.2b

The USD Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback vs. a bundle of its main competitors, navigates a narrow range just above the 102.00 mark at the begin

The index navigates the lower end of the recent range near 102.00.Another visit to the 2023 low near 101.90 remains on the cards.All the attention is expected to be on the US PCE, Consumer Sentiment.The USD Index (DXY), which tracks the greenback vs. a bundle of its main competitors, navigates a narrow range just above the 102.00 mark at the beginning of the week. USD Index now looks at key data The index attempts a mild rebound following Thursday’s marked pullback and the earlier drop to the boundaries of the 102.00 neighbourhood, as the appetite for the risk complex appears to be taking a breather ahead of the opening bell in Euroland on Friday. In the meantime, the dollar derived some strength as of late following hawkish comments from FOMC’s Collins (Boston) and Barkin (Richmond) on Thursday, which seem to have tilted investors’ preference for a 25 bps rate raise in May. Interest session in the US docket, as inflation figures tracked by the PCE are due seconded by Personal Income, Personal Spending and the final readings of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment. What to look for around USD The index remains well under pressure and keeps putting the 102.00 region to the test at the end of the week. So far, speculation of a potential Fed’s pivot in the short-term horizon should keep weighing on the dollar, although the still elevated inflation, the resilience of the US economy and the hawkish narrative from Fed speakers are all seen playing against that view for the time being.Key events in the US this week: PCE, Personal Income/Spending, Final Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Friday).Eminent issues on the back boiler: Persistent debate over a soft/hard landing of the US economy. Terminal Interest rate near the peak vs. speculation of rate cuts in 2024. Fed’s pivot. Geopolitical effervescence vs. Russia and China. US-China trade conflict. USD Index relevant levels Now, the index is advancing 0.07% at 102.24 and faces the next resistance level at 103.36 (55-day SMA) followed by 104.05 (100-day SMA) and then 105.88 (2023 high March 8). On the other hand, the breach of 101.93 (monthly low March 23) would open the door to 100.82 (2023 low February 2) and finally 100.00 (psychological level).  

In light of the recent price action, EUR/USD could extend the upside to the 1.0970 region in the next few weeks, noted Markets Strategist Quek Ser Lea

In light of the recent price action, EUR/USD could extend the upside to the 1.0970 region in the next few weeks, noted Markets Strategist Quek Ser Leang and Senior FX Strategist Peter Chia at UOB Group. Key Quotes 24-hour view: “The strong rise in EUR to a high of 1.0926 came as a surprise (we were expecting EUR to trade in a range). While overbought, the advance in EUR could break above the month-to-date high near 1.0930. In view of the overbought conditions, the next resistance at 1.0970 is unlikely to come into view today. Support is at 1.0880; a breach of 1.0865 would indicate that the upward pressure has faded.” Next 1-3 weeks: “We have held the same view since Monday (27 Mar, spot at 1.0775) wherein EUR ‘appears to have entered a consolidation phase and it is likely to trade between 1.0660 and 1.0870’. We highlighted yesterday (30 Mar, spot at 1.0845) that ‘while short-term upward momentum has improved a tad, EUR has to break and stay above 1.0900 before a sustained advance is likely’. We added, ‘The prospect of EUR breaking clearly above 1.0900 is low for now, but it would remain intact as long as EUR stays above the ‘strong support’ level of 1.0770 in the next few days’. In early NY trade, EUR cracked 1.0900 and rose to 1.0926 before settling at 1.0901 (+0.53%). Upward momentum has improved further and EUR is likely to strengthen to 1.0970. On the downside, the ‘strong support’ level has moved higher to 1.0820 from 1.0770. Looking ahead, the next significant resistance above 1.0970 is at 1.1035.”

USD/CAD licks its wounds around 1.3520 as it pares the weekly losses around the lowest levels in more than a month, after refreshing the multi-day low

USD/CAD picks up bids to pare intraday losses around five-week low.Oil traders struggle to cheer risk-on mood, upbeat China PMI as US Dollar pauses downside.Recently falling hawkish Fed bets, mixed US data allow Loonie bears to remain hopeful.Canada GDP for January, US Core PCE Price Index eyed for fresh impulse.USD/CAD licks its wounds around 1.3520 as it pares the weekly losses around the lowest levels in more than a month, after refreshing the multi-day low, during early Friday. In doing so, the Loonie pair takes clues from the inactive Oil price and the US Dollar amid the market’s cautious mood ahead of the key inflation data from the US, as well as Canada’s Monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data for January. WTI crude oil remains mildly offered around $74.30 after refreshing a 13-day high earlier in the day. That said, upbeat prints of China’s official PMIs for March join talks of no change in the production policies of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies led by Russia, known collectively as OPEC+, to favor the Oil buyers. On the other hand, the US Dollar Index (DXY) seesaws around 102.25, after refreshing the weekly bottom with 102.05 earlier in the day. In doing so, the greenback’s gauge versus the six major currencies portrays the pre-data anxiety, while also taking clues from the lackluster markets, to prod the DXY traders. It should be noted that the recent hawkish rhetoric of the Fed officials and strong US inflation expectations seemed to have triggered the USD/CAD pair’s corrective bounce. That said, Fed Jerome Powell joined Boston Fed President Susan Collins, Minneapolis Fed Leader Neel Kashkari and Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin to suggest the US central bank’s further rate hike to tame the inflation woes. However, mixed US data raise doubts about the Fed policymakers’ hawkish rhetoric and rather concentrated on their rejection of banking crisis woes to weigh on the US Dollar, as well the Fed bets.  As per the latest reading of the CME’s FedWatch Tool, traders place a nearly 47% chance of a 0.25% rate hike in the May month Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Monetary policy meeting, versus 60% the previous day. Amid these plays,  the S&P 500 Futures refresh a three-week high by tracing Wall Street’s upbeat sentiment. Though, the US 10-year Treasury bond yields rose two basis points (bps) to 3.57% whereas the two-year counterpart grinds higher to 4.13% during a five-day uptrend. Looking ahead, USD/CAD may defend the latest corrective bounce ahead of the key US inflation clues, as well as Canadian GDP. However, the actual prints of the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index for February will be crucial for clear directions. Technical analysis The 100-DMA challenges USD/CAD bears around 1.3520 ahead of directing them to the key support line stretched from June 2022, close to 1.3480. That said, the bearish MACD signals and sustained trading below the 50-DMA, close to 1.3545 at the latest, suggest the Loonie pair’s further downside.  

Japan Construction Orders (YoY) above expectations (9.8%) in February: Actual (22.3%)

Japan Housing Starts (YoY) registered at -0.3% above expectations (-0.5%) in February

Japan Annualized Housing Starts: 0.859M (February) vs previous 0.893M

Natural Gas futures are hovering near their fresh two-year low at $2.09 in the Asian session. The asset witnessed a steep fall on Thursday despite a l

Natural Gas is oscillating near its fresh two-year low at $2.09 amid a weak demand outlook.The US EIA reported a drawdown in natural gas inventory by 47 billion cubic feet (bcf), lower than the consensus of -54bcf.The extension of winter in northern America has postponed the requirement of ACs due to which demand for natural gas might remain weak.Natural Gas futures are hovering near their fresh two-year low at $2.09 in the Asian session. The asset witnessed a steep fall on Thursday despite a less-than-anticipated drawdown reported by the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA) for the week ending March 24. The US EIA reported a drawdown in natural gas inventory by 47 billion cubic feet (bcf), lower than the consensus of -54bcf and the former release of 72bcf. The extension of winter in northern America has postponed the requirement for air conditioners to which demand for natural gas is expected to remain weak, which is weighing heavily on natural gas prices. Also, declining oil prices will get benefit from natural gas substitution ahead. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is displaying a subdued performance ahead of the United States core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index data. Natural Gas price weekly chart On a weekly scale, Natural Gas futures are showing signs of volatility divergence. The asset has gone a little far from the lower Bollinger Bands (20,2), which indicates that volatility has been squeezed. Also, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is displaying a divergence in the downside momentum. The asset has formed a lower low while the momentum oscillator has not made a lower low yet. However, investors are required to use more filters for building bullish bias. Natural Gas price hourly chart On an hourly scale, Natural Gas futures have shown some signs of responsive buying near the critical support of $2.11, which could result in a Double Bottom chart pattern but still eyes more filters for confidence. For an upside move, the asset needs to break above the immediate resistance of $2.20, which will drive the asset towards March 28 high around $2.25 followed by March 27 high at $2.29. On the flip side, a break below March 30 low at $2.09 would expose the asset to fresh two-year low near the psychological resistance at $2.00.  

AUD/USD pares intraday gains around 0.6720, following the run-up to refresh weekly top to near 0.6740, as markets brace for the key US inflation clues

AUD/USD retreats after refreshing one-week high, mildly bid of late.Bullish MACD signals, upbeat RSI (14) keeps Aussie pair buyers hopeful.Convergence of 200-DMA, monthly triangle’s upper line restrict immediate advances.Bears remain off the table unless breaking 0.6520.AUD/USD pares intraday gains around 0.6720, following the run-up to refresh weekly top to near 0.6740, as markets brace for the key US inflation clues during early Friday. Even so, the Aussie pair remains inside a monthly symmetrical triangle. It’s worth noting that upbeat China PMI and broad US Dollar weakness, amid receding hawkish Fed bets, previously propelled the AUD/USD pair to renew a one-week high. Even if the Aussie pair fades upside momentum ahead of the key data, bullish MACD signals join the above 50 levels of RSI (14), not overbought, to keep the buyers hopeful. However, the 200-DMA and the stated triangle’s top line, close to 0.6750, appear a tough nut to crack for the AUD/USD bulls to crack. Following that, a run-up towards the early February lows near 0.6855 and then to the last December’s high of around 0.6895 can’t be ruled out. On the contrary, pullback moves need to defy the triangle formation, by slipping beneath the support line of 0.6660, to convince AUD/USD bears. In that case, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the pair’s November-February upside precedes the previous resistance line from February, respectively near 0.6610 and 0.6520, to challenge the AUD/USD sellers afterward. AUD/USD: Daily chart Trend: Further upside expected  

Netherlands, The Retail Sales (YoY) dipped from previous 11.1% to 8.5% in February

The GBP/USD pair is aiming to re-test its two-month high at 1.2448 in the Asian session. The Cable is attracting bullish bets despite expectations for

GBP/USD is looking to recapture a two-month high at 1.2450 as the risk profile remains upbeat.The USD Index is defending the 102.20 support in hopes of the continuation of a policy-tightening spell by the Fed.Mixed views on BoE’s monetary outlook will keep Pound Sterling volatile.The GBP/USD pair is aiming to re-test its two-month high at 1.2448 in the Asian session. The Cable is attracting bullish bets despite expectations for a steady monetary policy by the Federal Reserve (Fed) have eased. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is defending the 102.20 support on hopes that receding fears of the United States banking fiasco have opened the door for the continuation of the policy-tightening spell by the Fed. As per the CME Fedwatch tool, the odds of an unchanged monetary policy by the Fed in May have slipped below 50%. The USD Index is demonstrating topsy-turvy moves above 102.20 as investors are awaiting the release of the core US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index (Feb) data. According to the estimates, the core PCE Price Index is expected to remain flat at 4.7% annually. Meanwhile, the prices of goods and services have accelerated by 0.4%, lower than the former expansion of 0.6%. There is evidence that conveys the United States inflation is in a clear downtrend, however, the inflation rate is still more than three times the desired rate, and achieving price stability is not a cakewalk, which solidifies the case of one more rate hike announcement by Fed chair Jerome Powell in May. S&P500 futures have gained further in the Tokyo session after a bullish Thursday as ebbing US banking jitters have infused confidence among investors, portraying extremely positive market sentiment. Also, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr assured investors that the failure of a couple of lenders is unable to lead to a widespread contagion. Going forward, the Pound Sterling will show a power-pack action amid the release of the United Kingdom Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data. According to the estimates, UK’s growth rate has remained stagnant in the fourth quarter of CY2022. Annual GDP is expected to remain steady at 0.4%. Mixed views on the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary outlook will keep Pound Sterling volatile. BoE policymakers are confident about the quick softening of UK inflation ahead, however, rising food inflation and shortage of labor are telling a different story.  

USD/INR stays defensive above 82.00, keeping the latest bounce off three-week low amid Friday’s sluggish Asian session. In doing so, the Indian Rupee

USD/INR seesaws around three-week low amid cautious markets.Yields grind higher but receding hawkish Fed bets favor Indian Rupee buyers.Second-tier statistics from India can entertain traders ahead of US Core PCE Price Index.Easing US inflation could weigh on US Dollar, especially amid banking-led optimism.USD/INR stays defensive above 82.00, keeping the latest bounce off three-week low amid Friday’s sluggish Asian session. In doing so, the Indian Rupee (INR) pair portrays the market’s anxiety ahead of the key US inflation clues. However, recently easing hawkish bias about the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) next moves seem to favor the bears. As per the latest reading of the CME’s FedWatch Tool, traders place a nearly 50% chance of a 0.25% rate hike in the May month Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Monetary policy meeting, versus 60% the previous day. While tracing the clues, mixed US data could be held responsible as final readings of the US fourth quarter (Q4) Gross Domestic Product (GDP), also known as the Real GDP, marked an easy Annualized growth number of 2.6% versus 2.7% previous forecasts. It’s worth noting that the Q4 Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Prices matched 3.7% QoQ forecasts and prior while the Core PCE figure grew to 4.4% QoQ versus 4.3% expected and prior. Moving on, the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims rose to 198K for the week ended on March 25 versus 191K prior and 196K market forecasts.  Even so, the recent hawkish rhetoric of the Fed officials and strong US inflation expectations challenge the USD/INR bears. That said, Fed Jerome Powell joined Boston Fed President Susan Collins, Minneapolis Fed Leader Neel Kashkari and Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin to suggest the US central bank’s further rate hike to tame the inflation woes. However, mixed US data raise doubts about the Fed policymakers’ hawkish rhetoric and rather concentrated on their rejection of banking crisis woes to weigh on the US Dollar, as well the Fed bets.   While portraying the mood, the S&P 500 Futures refresh a three-week high by tracing Wall Street’s upbeat sentiment. Though, the US 10-year Treasury bond yields rose two basis points (bps) to 3.57% whereas the two-year counterpart grinds higher to 4.13% during a five-day uptrend. Amid these plays, the US Dollar Index (DXY) licks its wounds near 102.20 after refreshing the weekly low. Looking forward, India’s Q4 Balance Payment and Current Account details may allow USD/INR intermediate directions as those figures have previously weighed on the INR. However, major attention will be given to the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index for February. Also read: US February PCE Inflation Preview: Bad news for the Dollar, good news for the Fed? Technical analysis A 10-week-old ascending support line, near the 82.00 threshold at the latest, restricts the immediate downside of the USD/INR price. The recovery moves, however, need validation from the 50-DMA hurdle surrounding 82.35. It’s worth noting that the bearish MACD signals join the pair’s sustained trading below the key moving averages to keep the sellers hopeful.  

EUR/USD stays defensive around 1.0910 after refreshing the weekly high to 1.0925 during early Friday. In doing so, the Euro pair portrays the market’s

EUR/USD grinds higher after refreshing one-week top, retreats from intraday peak of late.Pre-data anxiety seems probing Euro buyers as markets anticipate easing inflation fears.Comparative more hawkish ECB speakers, than the Fed ones, join upbeat EU data to keep buyers hopeful.German Retail Sales can entertain EUR/USD traders ahead of Eurozone HICP, US Core PCE Price Index.EUR/USD stays defensive around 1.0910 after refreshing the weekly high to 1.0925 during early Friday. In doing so, the Euro pair portrays the market’s cautious mood ahead of the key inflation clues from Eurozone and the US. Adding strength to the pullback moves could be the recently sluggish Treasury bond yields. Downbeat prints of German inflation contrast with the policymakers’ hawkish bias to challenge the EUR/USD pair’s latest run-up even if the recently easing expectations of a rate hike by the Fed in May month’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Monetary policy meeting. Preliminary readings of Germany’s inflation gauge, namely the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), suggested an easing in price pressure to 7.8% YoY in March versus 9.3% prior and 7.5% market forecasts. On the same line, German inflation per the Consumer Price Index (CPI) also eased to 7.4% YoY during the stated month from 8.7% prior and 7.3% expected. Further, the Eurozone Business Climate gauge for March eased to 0.70 versus 0.71 prior while the Consumer Confidence figure came in at -19.2 during the stated month while matching market forecasts and prior. Even so, the latest Economic Bulletin from the European Central Bank (ECB) said, “Inflation is projected to remain too high for too long.” On the same line, Frank Elderson, member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank (ECB) and Vice-Chair of the ECB’s Supervisory Board said in a media interview, “We must reduce the very high rate of inflation.” For the US, the final readings of the US fourth quarter (Q4) Gross Domestic Product (GDP), also known as the Real GDP, marked an easy Annualized growth number of 2.6% versus 2.7% previous forecasts. It’s worth noting that the Q4 Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Prices matched 3.7% QoQ forecasts and prior while the Core PCE figure grew to 4.4% QoQ versus 4.3% expected and prior. Moving on, the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims rose to 198K for the week ended on March 25 versus 191K prior and 196K market forecasts.  It should be noted that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell joined three other Fed Officials to back further rate hikes on Thursday, citing the need to tame the inflation woes. However, mixed US data raise doubts about the Fed policymakers’ hawkish rhetoric and rather concentrated on their rejection of banking crisis woes to weigh on the US Dollar, as well the Fed bets.  That said, the CME’s FedWatch Tool suggests a nearly 50% chance of a 0.25% rate hike in the May Fed meeting, versus 60% the previous day. On a different page, officials from the Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB), the Bank of England (BoE) and the Swiss National Bank (SNB) have recently pushed back the fears of the banking crisis and allowed the markets to remain optimistic. The same weighs on the US Dollar’s demand, especially amid sluggish yields. While portraying the mood, the S&P 500 Futures refresh a three-week high near 4,095, rising for the third consecutive day, as it traces Wall Street’s upbeat sentiment. That said, the US 10-year Treasury bond yields rose two basis points (bps) to 3.57% whereas the two-year counterpart grinds higher to 4.13% during a five-day uptrend. Looking forward, the Eurozone Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for March and the United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index for February will be closely watched for clear directions. Also important to watch will be Germany’s Retail Sales for February, expected -5.2% YoY versus 6.9% prior. Forecasts suggest the EU HICP ease to 7.1% YoY from 8.5% prior but the Core HICP could print annualized growth of 5.7% versus 5.6% previous readings. Further, On the other hand, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, namely the US Core PCE Price Index, is likely to remain unchanged at 4.7% YoY during February. However, the monthly figure is expected to ease to 0.4%, from 0.6% prior. Technical analysis Given the overbought RSI (14) and the Euro pair’s repeated failures to cross the 1.0930-35 horizontal resistance area, comprising levels marked since late January, the EUR/USD pair may drop to a two-week-old ascending support line, close to 1.0850 at the latest.  

USD/JPY drops to 132.90 amid early Friday, after refreshing a two-week high, as market sentiment turns dicey ahead of the key US inflation catalysts.

USD/JPY trims intraday gains at the highest levels in two week.IMF’s Salgado signals more flexibility in BoJ YCC policy, Japan FinMin Suzuki advocates BoJ independence.Mixed Japan data, sluggish yields and cautious optimism keep Yen pair buyers hopeful.Quarter-end JPY flows, US Core PCE Price Index can entertain USD/JPY traders.USD/JPY drops to 132.90 amid early Friday, after refreshing a two-week high, as market sentiment turns dicey ahead of the key US inflation catalysts. Adding strength to the pullback moves could be the chatters surrounding the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and mixed Japan data, not to forget the sluggish US Treasury bond yields. Starting with the data, Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 3.3% in March versus 2.7% expected but eased from 3.4% prior while the Tokyo CPI ex Food, Energy jumped to 3.4% compared to 3.2% previous readings and 3.3% market consensus. Further, Japan’s Industrial Production growth rallied to 4.5% MoM in February compared to 2.7% estimations and -5.3% prior while Retail Trade also improved during the stated month to 6.6% from 5.0% prior and 5.8% analysts’ forecasts. On the contrary, a surprise jump in Japan’s Unemployment rate, from 2.4% to 2.6% in February, can be cited as resulting in the Japanese Yen’s (JPY) latest weakness. Following that, Japan's Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said that he expects the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and Ueda to enforce monetary policy strongly. The same promotes the Japanese central bank’s autonomy and likely push for exiting the easy money policies, especially after the latest wage hike. It should, however, the noted that International Monetary Fund (IMF) Japan Mission Chief Ranil Salgado saw the prospect and the potential of more flexibility at the long end of the curve under the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) YCC policy.” On the other hand, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell joined three other Fed Officials to back further rate hikes on Thursday, citing the need to tame the inflation woes. However, mixed US data raise doubts about the Fed policymakers’ hawkish rhetoric and rather concentrated on their rejection of banking crisis woes to weigh on the US Dollar, as well the Fed bets.  That said, the CME’s FedWatch Tool suggests a nearly 50% chance of a 0.25% rate hike in the May Fed meeting, versus 60% the previous day. It’s worth mentioning that the central bankers from the Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB), the Bank of England (BoE) and the Swiss National Bank (SNB) have recently pushed back the fears of the banking crisis and allow the markets to remain optimistic. Amid these plays, the S&P 500 Futures refresh a three-week high near 4,095, rising for the third consecutive day, as it traces Wall Street’s upbeat sentiment. That said, the US 10-year Treasury bond yields rose two basis points (bps) to 3.57% whereas the two-year counterpart grinds higher to 4.13% during a five-day uptrend. Moving on, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation gauge, namely the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index for February, will be crucial for clear directions as markets anticipate softer inflation to weigh on hawkish Fed bets. Also read: US February PCE Inflation Preview: Bad news for the Dollar, good news for the Fed? Technical analysis A daily closing beyond the 50-DMA hurdle surrounding 133.00 becomes necessary for the USD/JPY bulls to keep the reins. 

Gold price (XAU/USD) is aiming to sustain its auction above the critical resistance of $1,980.00 in the Asian session. The precious metal is looking t

Gold price is looking to sustain its business firmly above $1,980.00 as investors see no rate hike in May.The USD Index has shown some signs of recovery from 102.00, however, the downside is still favored.Gold price is auctioning in a Symmetrical Triangle pattern, which is indicating volatility contraction ahead of the Fed’s preferred inflation tool.Gold price (XAU/USD) is aiming to sustain its auction above the critical resistance of $1,980.00 in the Asian session. The precious metal is looking to surpass Thursday’s high of $1,984.65 despite the US Dollar Index (DXY) has shown some signs of recovery from 102.00. S&P500 futures have generated significant gains in the Asian session. US equities have carry-forwarded the buying spree firmly, portraying a cheerful market mood. Meanwhile, the demand for US government bonds has been trimmed further in hopes of no further casualties in the United States banking sector. The recovery move from the USD Index has to pass plenty of filters as investors are anticipating an unchanged monetary policy stance in May by the Federal Reserve (Fed). In a private meeting with US lawmakers, Fed chair Jerome Powell cited that he anticipates one more rate hike in 2023. The statement from Fed Powell is not restricted to the May policy. Therefore, the chances of a steady monetary policy in May are extremely solid. On Friday, the USD Index will remain in action ahead of the release of the core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index data. Analysts at Wells Fargo have forecasted the PCE deflator (+0.4%) to outpace nominal spending (+0.3%). Gold technical analysis Gold price is auctioning in a Symmetrical Triangle chart pattern on an hourly scale, which is indicating a sheer volatility contraction ahead of Fed’s preferred inflation tool. The upward-sloping trendline of the chart pattern is plotted from March 22 low at $1,934.34 while the downward-sloping trendline is placed from March 20 high at $2,009.88. Broadly the Gold price is overlapping the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at above $1,970.00, which indicates that the consolidation is still on. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is oscillating in the bullish range of 60.00-80.00, which favors more upside ahead. Gold hourly chart  

USD/MXN licks its wounds near 18.10, after refreshing the three-week low, during early Friday. In doing so, the Mexican Peso pair probes the five-day

USD/MXN portrays corrective after refreshing multi-day bottom, sidelined of late.Bearish MACD signals, sustained trading below key DMA, resistance line favor sellers.Nearly oversold RSI, Doji candlestick on daily challenges Mexican Peso pair’s further downside.USD/MXN licks its wounds near 18.10, after refreshing the three-week low, during early Friday. In doing so, the Mexican Peso pair probes the five-day losing streak after posting a trend reversal suggesting a candlestick, namely Doji, the previous day. Not only Thursday’s Doji but nearly oversold RSI (14) also suggests the Mexican Peso pair’s recovery. However, bearish MACD signals and the quote’s sustained trading below the 21-DMA, as well as a fortnight-long descending trend line, keeps sellers hopeful. As a result, the quote’s latest rebound remains elusive unless it crosses the downward-sloping resistance line from March 20, close to 18.30 by the press time. Even so, the 21-DMA hurdle of 18.43 may test the USD/MXN bulls. In a case where the USD/MXN pair rises past 18.43, multiple stops around 18.55 and the previous Friday’s peak surrounding 18.80 can challenge the bulls ahead of directing them to the 19.00 threshold. Following that, the monthly of near 19.25 will be in focus. Alternatively, USD/MXN pair’s fresh downside needs validation from the previous day’s low of 18.04, as well as the 18.00 round figure, to convince sellers. Though, the monthly low of 17.89 and a downward-sloping support line from late November 2022, around 17.63 at the latest, could challenge the USD/MXN bears afterward. USD/MXN: Daily chart Trend: Limited recovery expected

In an interview with ABC Radio, Australian Prime Minister (PM) Anthony Albanese said on Friday, he would welcome lifting the minimum wage to match inf

In an interview with ABC Radio, Australian Prime Minister (PM) Anthony Albanese said on Friday, he would welcome lifting the minimum wage to match inflation. Key quotes The government submission recommended real wages for low-paid workers "do not go backwards" but added it was not suggesting wages should "across-the-board" automatically rise with inflation. "If the Fair Work Commission makes that decision then I would welcome it, but it is an independent decision of the government. It's up to them to determine the range of factors they'll consider.” "My values haven't changed.” Meanwhile, the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry submission on Friday called for an increase in minimum and award wages of up to 4%. Market reaction AUD/USD is consolidating the upbeat Chinese PMIs-led gains at around 0.6725, up 0.22% on the day. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) could take note of the above development when they announce their policy decision next Tuesday.

Market sentiment remains firmer as traders flex muscles for the key Friday comprising headline inflation clues from Eurozone and the US. Adding streng

Risk appetite remains firmer as markets anticipate easing inflation woes to prod Fed hawks.Optimism about banking sector, mixed US data supersede Federal Reserve officials’ push for higher rates.S&P 500 Futures print three-day winning streak to refresh multi-day top, bond yields remain sidelined.Eurozone HICP, US Core PCE Price Index will be important for fresh impulse.Market sentiment remains firmer as traders flex muscles for the key Friday comprising headline inflation clues from Eurozone and the US. Adding strength to the market’s cautious optimism are the recently easing hawkish Fed bets and mixed US data, not to forget the policymakers’ rejections of the banking crisis. While portraying the mood, the S&P 500 Futures refresh a three-week high near 4,095, rising for the third consecutive day, as it traces Wall Street’s upbeat sentiment. That said, the US 10-year Treasury bond yields rose two basis points (bps) to 3.57% whereas the two-year counterpart grinds higher to 4.13% during a five-day uptrend. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell joined three other Fed Officials to back further rate hikes on Thursday, citing the need to tame the inflation woes. However, mixed US data raise doubts about the Fed policymakers’ hawkish rhetoric and rather concentrated on their rejections of banking crisis woes to reduce the bets of a 0.25% rate hike in the next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Monetary policy meeting, in May. Not only the central bankers from the US but the European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of England (BoE) and the Swiss National Bank (SNB) officials have also recently pushed back the fears of the banking crisis. As a result, the CME’s FedWatch Tool suggests a nearly 50% chance of a 0.25% rate hike in the May Fed meeting, versus 60% the previous day. It should be noted that China’s upbeat activity data and softer US numbers also propel the risk-on mood. That said, China’s headline NBS Manufacturing PMI rises to 51.9 versus 51.5 expected and 52.6 prior while the Non-Manufacturing PMI jumps to 58.2 from 56.3 previous readings. On the same line could be comments from China's Premier Li Qiang who said that the economic situation in March is even better than in January and February. On the other hand, final readings of the US fourth quarter (Q4) Gross Domestic Product (GDP), also known as the Real GDP, marked an easy Annualized growth number of 2.6% versus 2.7% previous forecasts. It’s worth noting that the Q4 Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Prices matched 3.7% QoQ forecasts and prior while the Core PCE figure grew to 4.4% QoQ versus 4.3% expected and prior. Moving on, the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims rose to 198K for the week ended on March 25 versus 191K prior and 196K market forecasts. Looking ahead, the Eurozone Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for March and the United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index for February should be closely watched for clear directions. Also read: Forex Today: DXY under pressure amid risk appetite; focus turns to US inflation data

International Monetary Fund (IMF) Japan Mission Chief Ranil Salgado said on Friday, “we do see a prospect and the potential of more flexibility a the

International Monetary Fund (IMF) Japan Mission Chief Ranil Salgado said on Friday, “we do see a prospect and the potential of more flexibility a the long end of the curve under the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) YCC policy.” Additional quotes “There are two-sided risks to Japan's inflation, including upward surprises in the Shunto wage negotiations.” “Downside risks to Japan's inflation outlook are related to the global environment, financial shocks that raise prospects of a global recession.” “Our advice to the BoJ is to consider allowing for greater flexibility at longer-end yields, allow lthe longer end of the curve to be more determined by market forces.”

USD/CNH renews weekly low near 6.8440 during early Friday, declining for the second consecutive day amid broad US Dollar weakness and upbeat China dat

USD/CNH drops to fresh one-week low, down for the second consecutive day, on upbeat China activity data for March.China NBS Manufacturing PMI rose more than expected while Non-Manufacturing PMI crossed previous figures.Easing hawkish bias for the Fed’s next move, risk-on mood join mixed US data to drown USD/CNH price.US Core PCE Price Index, risk catalysts eyed for clear directions.USD/CNH renews weekly low near 6.8440 during early Friday, declining for the second consecutive day amid broad US Dollar weakness and upbeat China data. That said, China’s headline NBS Manufacturing PMI rises to 51.9 versus 51.5 expected and 52.6 prior while the Non-Manufacturing PMI jumps to 58.2 from 56.3 previous readings. On the same line could be comments from China's Premier Li Qiang who said that the economic situation in March is even better than in January and February. Apart from upbeat data from the biggest commodity user, as well as the major consumer, USD/CNH also bears the burden of the risk-on mood and receding hawkish Fed bets, not to forget the mixed US data. It should be noted that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell joined three other Fed Officials to back further rate hikes on Thursday, citing the need to tame the inflation woes. However, mixed US data raise doubts about the Fed policymakers’ hawkish rhetoric and rather concentrated on their rejection of banking crisis woes to weigh on the US Dollar, as well the Fed bets.   While portraying the market’s bets, the CME’s FedWatch Tool suggests a nearly 50% chance of a 0.25% rate hike in the May Fed meeting, versus 60% the previous day. Talking about the US data, final readings of the US fourth quarter (Q4) Gross Domestic Product (GDP), also known as the Real GDP, marked an easy Annualized growth number of 2.6% versus 2.7% previous forecasts. It’s worth noting that the Q4 Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Prices matched 3.7% QoQ forecasts and prior while the Core PCE figure grew to 4.4% QoQ versus 4.3% expected and prior. Moving on, the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims rose to 198K for the week ended on March 25 versus 191K prior and 196K market forecasts.  Moving on, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation gauge, namely the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index for February, will be crucial for clear directions as markets anticipate softer inflation to weigh on hawkish Fed bets. Also read: US February PCE Inflation Preview: Bad news for the Dollar, good news for the Fed? Technical analysis Failure to cross the 100-DMA hurdle surrounding 6.9140 directs USD/CNH bears towards an upward-sloping support line from early February, near 6.8280 by the press time.  

The AUD/USD pair has jumped above 0.6730 as China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has reported better-than-projected PMI figures. Manufacturing

AUD/USD has scaled above 0.6730 as the Chinese official PMI remained better than expectations.Investors are split about the monetary policy decision by the RBA as Australian inflation has softened firmly.The USD Index is putting efforts into defending its critical support of 102.10.The AUD/USD pair has jumped above 0.6730 as China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has reported better-than-projected PMI figures. Manufacturing PMI has landed at 51.9, higher than the consensus of 51.5 but lower than the former release of 52.6. The Non-Manufacturing PMI has mounted higher at 58.2 vs. the former release of 56.3. Chinese economy looks steady on its way to economic recovery as the administration is providing various monetary and non-monetary measures to trigger overall demand and accelerate the scale of economic activities. However, Monday’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI data will be keenly watched. Investors should be aware of the fact that Australia is a leading trading partner of China and a higher scale of economic activities will support the Australian Dollar. Going forward, the Australian Dollar will remain active ahead of the interest rate decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Investors are split about the monetary policy decision by RBA Governor Philip Lowe as Australian inflation has softened to 6.8% firmly from the December print of 8.4%, which supports the case of keeping policy steady and observing the impact of the current interest rate. Also, RBA Lowe cited in its previous policy statement that the central bank is considering maintenance of the status quo in April. While, the other school of thought believes that despite softening of Australian inflation, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is still far from the desired target. Therefore, the rate-hiking spell should continue ahead. On the United States front, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is putting efforts into defending its critical support of 102.10. More action will be seen in the USD Index ahead of the release of the US core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index data.  

NZD/USD renews the highest levels of the week, taking bids to refresh the multi-day top near 0.6300 on upbeat China activity data for March, published

NZD/USD takes the bids to refresh multi-day top on strong China PMI.China’s NBS Manufacturing PMI, Non-Manufacturing PMI increased in March.Risk-on mood, receding hawkish Fed bets also favor Kiwi pair buyers.Fed’s preferred inflation gauge eyed for further directions.NZD/USD renews the highest levels of the week, taking bids to refresh the multi-day top near 0.6300 on upbeat China activity data for March, published during early Friday. Adding strength to the Kiwi pair’s upside is the broad US Dollar weakness amid receding hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) bets and the mixed US data, not to forget the market’s cautious optimism. China’s headline NBS Manufacturing PMI rises to 51.9 versus 51.5 expected and 52.6 prior while the Non-Manufacturing PMI jumps to 58.2 from 56.3 previous readings. Elsewhere, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell joined three other Fed Officials to back further rate hikes on Thursday, citing the need to tame the inflation woes. However, mixed US data raise doubts about the Fed policymakers’ hawkish rhetoric and rather concentrated on the policymakers' rejection of banking crisis woes to weigh on the US Dollar.  As a result, the CME’s FedWatch Tool suggests nearly 50% chance of 0.25% rate hike in May Fed meeting, versus 60% the previous day. Not only the Fed talks but the mixed US data also weigh on the market’s bets of the future rate hikes and propel the Kiwi pair. That said, final readings of the US fourth quarter (Q4) Gross Domestic Product (GDP), also known as the Real GDP, marked an easy Annualized growth number of 2.6% versus 2.7% previous forecasts. It’s worth noting that the Q4 Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Prices matched 3.7% QoQ forecasts and prior while the Core PCE figure grew to 4.4% QoQ versus 4.3% expected and prior. Moving on, the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims rose to 198K for the week ended on March 25 versus 191K prior and 196K market forecasts.  It should be noted, however, that the Sino-American woes prod the NZD/USD bulls. China's Taiwan Affairs Office threatened retaliation over Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen's visit to the US on Wednesday. Additionally, China's Premier Li Qiang recently said that the economic situation in March is even better than in January and February. The policymaker, however, also raised geopolitical tension by opposing trade protectionism and decoupling, which indirectly targets the US. Looking forward, Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, namely the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index for February, will be crucial for clear directions. Technical analysis A clear upside break of the 50-DMA hurdle, now immediate support around 0.6280, keeps the Kiwi pair buyers hopeful. 

AUD/USD is a touch higher as China's March Official PMI Manufacturing arrived at 51.9 vs. the expected 51.5 while Services came in at 58.2 vs. the exp

AUD/USD is a touch higher as China's March Official PMI Manufacturing arrived at 51.9  vs. the expected 51.5 while Services came in at 58.2 vs. the expected 54.3. More to come... About the data The monthly manufacturing PMI is released by China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP) on the last day of every month. The official PMI is released before the Caixin Manufacturing PMI, which makes it even more of a leading indicator, highlighting the health of the manufacturing sector, considered as the backbone of the Chinese economy. The data is of high relevance for the financial markets throughout several asset classes, given China’s influence on the global economy. China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP) publishes the non-manufacturing PMI on a monthly basis. The gauge highlights the performance of China’s service sector, which has a significant impact on the global FX market, given the size of the Chinese economy. An expansion in the Chinese service sector activity points to signs of economic improvement and vice-versa.

China NBS Manufacturing PMI above expectations (51.5) in March: Actual (51.9)

China Non-Manufacturing PMI climbed from previous 56.3 to 58.2 in March

The USD/CHF pair has faced tough barricades near 0.9140 in the Asian session. The Swiss Franc asset is expected to register a fresh two-week low after

USD/CHF has faced selling pressure near 0.9140 amid the positive market mood.Investors believe that the anticipation of one more rate hike in 2023 by Fed Powell is not for May policy.Swiss annual retail sales (Feb) data is expected to expand by 1.9% against a contraction of 2.2%.The USD/CHF pair has faced tough barricades near 0.9140 in the Asian session. The Swiss Franc asset is expected to register a fresh two-week low after slipping below 0.9120 ahead. The downside bets for the major are accelerating as the US Dollar Index (DXY) has dropped after a short-lived pullback near 102.25. The downside action in the USD Index is expected to drag it below the immediate support of 102.00. Bearish bets for USD Index are accelerating as investors believe that anticipation of one more rate hike in 2023 by Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Jerome Powell is not for May monetary policy meeting. No doubt, fears of the United States banking system crisis have ebbed significantly, and credit conditions by US banks will remain extremely tight to safeguard themselves from further casualties. Also, the impact of US banking jitters is yet to be realized ahead. As per the CME Fedwatch tool, more than 52% chances are in favor of an unchanged monetary policy stance by the Fed for its May policy meeting. Meanwhile, S&P500 futures have carry-forwarded optimism observed on Thursday. The 500-US stocks basket futures have added more gains in the Asian session, portraying further solidification of the risk appetite of the market participants. The demand for US government bonds is getting subdued amid an absence of clarity on the monetary policy outlook. On the Swiss Franc front, investors are awaiting the release of Real Retail Sales (Feb) data. The annual retail sales data is expected to expand by 1.9% against a contraction of 2.2%, which would cement further scalability in the inflationary pressures. Also, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is set on the path of bringing inflation down by hiking more rates ahead.  

In recent trade today, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan at 6.8717 against the previous closing of 6.8710. About the fix China maintains

In recent trade today, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan at 6.8717 against the previous closing of 6.8710. About the fix China maintains strict control of the yuan’s rate on the mainland. The onshore yuan (CNY) differs from the offshore one (CNH) in trading restrictions, this last one is not as tightly controlled. Each morning, the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) sets a so-called daily midpoint fix, based on the yuan’s previous day's closing level and quotations taken from the inter-bank dealer.

USD/CAD sellers flirt with 1.3520-25, after declining to the lowest levels since February 22, as markets turn dicey on Friday ahead of the key inflati

USD/CAD seesaws around five-week low after four-day downtrend.Clear break of 50-DMA, downbeat oscillators keep sellers hopeful.Ascending support line from June 2022 appears the key challenge for Loonie bears.Buyers have a bumpy road on the way to retake control.USD/CAD sellers flirt with 1.3520-25, after declining to the lowest levels since February 22, as markets turn dicey on Friday ahead of the key inflation data from the US. In doing so, the Loonie pair prints minor losses during the five-day losing streak. Even so, the pair’s successful downside break of the 50-DMA joins bears MACD signals to keep the sellers hopeful. Adding strength to the bearish bias is the absence of the oversold RSI (14) line. It’s worth noting, however, that an upward-sloping support line from early June 2022, close to 1.3475 by the press time, appears a tough nut to crack for the USD/CAD bears to watch during the further downside. Also highlighting the importance of the 1.3475 level is the RSI’s fall below the 50 level as it suggests the likely dip-buying around the key support line. In a case where the Loonie pair breaks the 1.3475 support, the 200-DMA and an ascending trend line from mid-November 2022, respectively near 1.3375 and 1.3295, could challenge the bears afterward. On the contrary, recovery moves need validation from the 50-DMA resistance of 1.3545 to convince short-term USD/CAD buyers. However, the mid-month low around 1.3650-55 and December 2022 tops surrounding 1.3705 can challenge the Loonie pair’s further upside before highlighting the previous yearly top of 1.3977. USD/CAD: Daily chart Trend: Further downside expected  

Japan's Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said he expects the Bank of Japan and Ueda to enforce monetary policy strongly; precise policy is up to the B

Japan's Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki said he expects the Bank of Japan and Ueda to enforce monetary policy strongly; precise policy is up to the BoJ. USD/JPY update USD/JPY bulls took control on the front side of the trend with the 133.78s eyed. As it stands, a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement comes in near 133 the figure which is still on the front side of the trend.

GBP/USD bulls attack the 1.2400 threshold while refreshing the highest levels in two months during early Friday. In doing so, the Cable pair cheers op

GBP/USD refreshes multi-day top after rising the most in two weeks the previous day.Optimism about UK’s multi-billion trade deal, easing bank fears please bulls.Receding hawkish Fed bets, mixed US data joins hopes of downbeat inflation to propel Cable price.Final readings of UK Q4 GDP, US Core PCE Price Index eyed for clear directions.GBP/USD bulls attack the 1.2400 threshold while refreshing the highest levels in two months during early Friday. In doing so, the Cable pair cheers optimism surrounding the UK’s Trans-Atlantic trade deal amid easing fears from the banking sector. However, the cautious mood ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) preferred inflation gauge, namely the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index for February, prods the pair buyers of late. UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak hails a £1.8billion Brexit boost as Britain signed up to the giant Trans-Pacific Partnership, per The Sun. The news also mentioned, “The deal, which follows two years of talks, opens the door to free trade with 11 nations including Japan, Australia, Mexico, Malaysia and Singapore.” On the other hand, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell joined three other Fed Officials to back further rate hikes on Thursday, citing the need to tame the inflation woes. However, mixed US data raise doubts about the Fed policymakers’ hawkish rhetoric and rather concentrated on the policymakers' rejection of banking crisis woes to weigh on the US Dollar. "Inflation remains too high, and recent indicators reinforce my view that there is more work to do to bring inflation down to the 2% target associated with price stability," Federal Reserve Bank of Boston leader Susan Collins said in remarks to a gathering of the National Association for Business Economics per Reuters. Following her was Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari who said, “We have to bring down inflation.” On the same line was Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin saying that if inflation persists, we can react by raising rates further. It’s worth noting that US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Thursday, “Banking system is sound, even as it has come under pressure.” While portraying the mood, the US 10-year Treasury bond yields remain pressured near 3.55% while the two-year counterpart grinds higher around 4.12%, targeting the first weekly gain in four. Further, Wall Street closed positive for the third consecutive day whereas S&P 500 Futures also print mild gains at the latest. Looking forward, the final reading of the UK’s fourth quarter (Q4) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will be important to watch for the intraday move. However, major attention should be given to the headlines surrounding the inflation data from the US, as well as the central bankers’ reaction to the same. Also read: US February PCE Inflation Preview: Bad news for the Dollar, good news for the Fed? Technical analysis A sustained break of the 10-week-old horizontal resistance area, now support around 1.2285-65, joins the clear respect of a fortnight-long ascending trend line, close to 1.2320, to keep the GBP/USD pair buyers hopeful.  

The AUD/JPY pair has shown a significant upside move after the release of Japan’s economic reports associated with the Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI

AUD/JPY has firmly climbed above 89.50 as Japan’s higher jobless rate claims the continuation of BoJ’s loose policy.Japan’s retail demand remained robust. Also, inflation figures outperformed estimates.Going forward, investors are awaiting the interest rate decision by the RBA.The AUD/JPY pair has shown a significant upside move after the release of Japan’s economic reports associated with the Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI), labor market, and retail demand. Tokyo’s headline CPI has landed at 3.3%, much higher than the anticipation of 2.7% but lower than the former release of 3.4%. Tokyo’s core CPI that excludes oil and food prices has been reported at 3.4%, higher than the consensus of 3.3% and the prior release of 3.2%. Steady Tokyo inflation conveys that the intention of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) of maintaining inflation steadily above desired targets is not affected yet. This might keep chances of an exit from ultra-loose monetary policy intact. Meanwhile, Japan’s retail demand remained robust in February. Monthly Retail Sales expanded by 1.4% while the street was anticipating a contraction by 0.3%. Annual Retail Sales data has soared to 6.6% vs. the estimates of 5.8%. BoJ policymakers and Japan’s administration have been worried that inflationary pressures are majorly contributed by international forces and not by domestic demand. Now solid retail demand would ease some worries. The catalyst that has brought weakness in the Japanese Yen is the weak labor market data. The Unemployment Rate has increased to 2.6% vs. the consensus and the former release of 2.4%. Also, the Jobs/Applicants ratio has been trimmed to 1.34. Weak labor market data might force the BoJ to continue its expansionary policy. On the Australian Dollar front, investors are awaiting the interest rate decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which is scheduled for Tuesday. Softening Australian inflation could propel the consideration of a steady policy. Economists at ANZ Bank are of the view that “While the RBA has signaled its intention to pause at some point in coming months, we continue to think that the data is not yet consistent with a pause.”  

As per the prior analysis, USD/JPY Price Analysis: Bears need to make their move or lose control in the 133s, the bulls have made their move and the p

USD/JPY bulls are in control on the front side of the trend.Bulls eye the 133.78s while a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement comes in near 133 the figure.As per the prior analysis, USD/JPY Price Analysis: Bears need to make their move or lose control in the 133s, the bulls have made their move and the price is now making fresh cycle highs in the 133s. At the time of writing, USD/JPY is 0.5% higher and has made a high of 133.36 so far.  A slew of data and the Tokyo fix combined have seen the price vault 133 the figure on Friday. Being the end of the month and quarter-end FX fixes, volatility is kicking in while otherwise, as analysts at ANZ Bank said, ´´the focus is shifting away from bank wobbles and back to macroeconomics.´´ In this regard, he February reading of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) on Friday, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, will be released later today. January figures showed a sharp acceleration in consumer spending so the data will be closely eyed.  ´´Comments from Fed officials have been mixed with Jerome Powell indicating last week that the impact of the recent turmoil in the banking system could be the equivalent of 25bp of tightening,´´ analysts at ANZ Bank said. ´´However other Federal Reserve officials have pointed out that more tightening will be required if inflation risks persist.´´ On Thursday, US data showed that Jobless Claims last week rose more than expected from the week before indicating a cooling labor market, while fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product growth was slightly lower at 2.6% compared with earlier estimates of 2.7%, both supporting the case for a softer Fed policy. USD/JPY technical analysis The bulls are in control on the front side of the trend with the 133.78s eyed. As it stands, a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement comes in near 133 the figure which is still on the front side of the trend.

US inflation expectations, as per the 10-year and 5-year breakeven inflation rates from the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) data, challenge the marke

US inflation expectations, as per the 10-year and 5-year breakeven inflation rates from the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) data, challenge the market’s latest risk-on mood by refreshing the multi-day top. That said, the 10-year and 5-year breakeven inflation rates from the St. Louis Federal Reserve (FRED) jumped to the highest levels since March 07 and 09 respectively while renewing the multi-day tops with 2.34% and 2.40% figures by the end of Thursday’s North American session. The same joins the recent hawkish rhetoric from the Federal Reserve (Fed) to raise fears of a positive surprise from the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, namely the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index for February. Although the inflation figure is likely to remain unchanged at 4.7% YoY, the monthly figure is expected to ease to 0.4%, from 0.6% prior. Hence, there prevails a discord between the market forecasts for the inflation data and the inflation expectations per the FRED, making it interesting for US Dollar traders to watch today’s economics closely. Also read: US Dollar Index slides towards 102.00 despite hawkish Fed talks, focus on inflation

Australia Private Sector Credit (YoY) down to 7.6% in February from previous 8%

Australia Private Sector Credit (MoM) meets forecasts (0.3%) in February

EUR/USD depicts the market’s pre-inflation anxiety while making rounds to 1.0900, after refreshing a one-week high, during early Friday. In doing so,

EUR/USD seesaws around weekly high after rising the most in one-week the previous day.Upbeat sentiment, softer yields supersede hawkish Fed talks to propel the Euro pair.10-week-old horizontal resistance area can challenge bulls are RSI turns overbought.Sellers need 50-SMA breakdown to retake control; January’s top can lure bulls past 1.0930 hurdle.EUR/USD depicts the market’s pre-inflation anxiety while making rounds to 1.0900, after refreshing a one-week high, during early Friday. In doing so, the Euro pair portrays another battle with the key horizontal resistance established on January 23. Given the overbought RSI (14) and the Euro pair’s repeated failures to cross the 1.0930-35 horizontal resistance area, the pair buyers are likely to witness one more disappointment should the Eurozone inflation data ease and/or US Core PCE Price Index softens. Also read: EUR/USD Forecast: Positive signs for the Euro ahead of more inflation data In a case where the EUR/USD bulls ignore the RSI (14) conditions, backed by fundamental support, and cross the 1.0935 hurdle, the odds of witnessing a rally towards the yearly top marked in January near 1.1035 can’t be ruled out. Meanwhile, a two-week-old ascending support line, close to 1.0850 at the latest, restricts the short-term EUR/USD downside. Following that, the 50-SMA level surrounding 1.0820 and the mid-March high near 1.0750 can act as the last defenses of the EUR/USD buyers, a break of which could quickly drag the quote towards the monthly low of near 1.0515. Overall, the EUR/USD pair remains on the bull’s radar unless breaking the 1.0750 level but the limited upside room highlights today’s inflation numbers as the key catalysts. EUR/USD: Daily chart Trend: Limited upside expected  

The EUR/GBP pair is delivering a lackluster performance as investors have sidelined ahead of the release of the Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer

EUR/GBP is oscillating above 0.8800 as investors await Eurozone HICP and UK GDP for fresh impetus.Eurozone headline inflation to soften due to lower energy prices while the core figure could elevate.The street is split about BoE’s monetary policy outlook as more rate hikes would deepen recession fears.The EUR/GBP pair is delivering a lackluster performance as investors have sidelined ahead of the release of the Eurozone Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) and the United Kingdom’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data. The release of the German HICP data on Thursday indicates that headline figures could soften dramatically as energy prices have dropped firmly. However, a shortage of labor and eventually shifting of bargaining power in hands of job seekers would keep core figures firmer. Reuters reported that due to a shortage of job seekers and wage growth is now between 5% and 6%, the highest in decades. This might force the European Central Bank (ECB) to continue to hike rates further in order to achieve price stability. According to the consensus, Eurozone’s preliminary headline HICP (March) would soften to 7.1% from the former release of 8.5%. Contrary to that, core HICP is expected to escalate to 5.7% vs. the prior release of 5.6%. Apart from that, German Retail Sales (Feb) data will be keenly watched. Monthly retail demand is expected to expand by 0.5% against a contraction of 0.3%. An expansion in retail demand might bolster the chances of more rate hike announcements from ECB President Christine Lagarde. On the UK front, investors are awaiting the GDP (Q4) data. As per the consensus, UK’s growth has remained stagnant in the fourth quarter of CY2022. Annual GDP is expected to remain steady at 0.4%. Meanwhile, UK inflation is expected to remain elevated as shop price inflation is accelerating led by high food inflation. The street is split about the Bank of England’s (BoE) monetary policy outlook as investors are worried that more rate hikes would deepen recession fears or inflation would remain elevated if the policy remained unchanged.  

GBP/JPY bulls attack the previous monthly high, picking up bids around 164.80 to refresh the multi-day top, even as Japan inflation numbers crossed th

GBP/JPY picks up bids to refresh one-month high during three-day winning streak.March Inflation data from Japan came in better than expected but eased from prior levels.Yields portray market’s cautious mood ahead of top-tier inflation numbers from the US, UK.Final readings of UK Q4 GDP, risk catalysts are important for fresh impulse.GBP/JPY bulls attack the previous monthly high, picking up bids around 164.80 to refresh the multi-day top, even as Japan inflation numbers crossed the downbeat expectations during early Friday. It’s worth noting that upbeat sentiment could be held responsible for the cross-currency pair’s latest run-up although the yields remain sluggish. Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose to 3.3% in March versus 2.7% expected but eased from 3.4% prior while the Tokyo CPI ex Food, Energy jumped to 3.4% compared to 3.2% previous readings and 3.3% market consensus. Further, Japan’s Industrial Production growth rallied to 4.5% MoM in February compared to 2.7% estimations and -5.3% prior while Retail Trade also improved during the stated month to 6.6% from 5.0% prior and 5.8% analysts’ forecasts. On the contrary, a surprise jump in Japan’s Unemployment rate, from 2.4% to 2.6% in February, can be cited for the Japanese Yen’s (JPY) latest weakness. On the other hand, UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak hails a a £1.8billion Brexit boost as Britain signed up to the giant Trans-Pacific Partnership, per The Sun. The news also mentioned, “The deal, which follows two years of talks, opens the door to free trade with 11 nations including Japan, Australia, Mexico, Malaysia and Singapore.” Above all, Bank of Japan (BoJ) policymakers’ defense of the easy money status contrasts with the hawkish rhetoric among the Bank of England (BoE) officials to propel the GBP/JPY prices. On the same line could be the recently easing market fears from the banking turmoil and hopes of less severe rate hikes from the key central banks. Amid these plays, the US 10-year Treasury bond yields remain pressured near 3.55% while the two-year counterpart grinds higher around 4.12%, targeting the first weekly gain in four. Further, Wall Street closed positive for the third consecutive day whereas S&P 500 Futures also print mild gains at the latest. Looking ahead, the final reading of the UK’s fourth quarter (Q4) Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will be important to watch for the intraday move. However, major attention should be given to the headlines surrounding the inflation data from Eurozone and the US, as well as the central bankers’ reaction to the same. Technical analysis A downward-sloping resistance line from December 13, 2022, near 164.80 by the press time, challenges immediate GBP/JPY upside.  

Japan Large Retailer Sales registered at 4.7% above expectations (3.6%) in February

Japan Retail Trade s.a (MoM) above forecasts (-0.3%) in February: Actual (1.4%)

Japan Industrial Production (YoY) came in at -0.6%, above forecasts (-2.5%) in February

Japan Industrial Production (MoM) registered at 4.5% above expectations (2.7%) in February

Japan Retail Trade (YoY) above forecasts (5.8%) in February: Actual (6.6%)

Silver price (XAG/USD) is marching towards the round-level resistance of $24.00 with an immense pace in the early Asian session. The white metal has r

Silver price is aiming to recapture the immediate resistance of $24.00 amid a positive market mood.The white metal is in a positive trajectory despite receding fears of potential United States banking turmoil.Silver price is auctioning in a Rising Wedge chart pattern that indicates a continuation of upside momentum.Silver price (XAG/USD) is marching towards the round-level resistance of $24.00 with an immense pace in the early Asian session. The white metal has registered a three-day winning streak and is expected to continue its upside momentum amid weakness in the US Dollar Index (DXY). Silver price is in a positive trajectory despite receding fears of potential United States banking turmoil. Earlier, investors underpinned bullions as a safe-haven to dodge volatility-inspired by the collapse of three mid-size US banks. The USD index is struggling to gain strength despite rising chances of more rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed). One school of thought believes that Fed chair Jerome Powell could go for hiking rates further as US banking jitters are cooling-off. Also, Fed Powell has anticipated one more rate hike in 2023. And that a rate hike in Fed’s May policy meeting would allow it to keep rates higher for a longer period. Meanwhile, S&P500 futures have added more gains in the Asian session after a positive settlement on Thursday, indicating sheer improvement in the risk-taking ability of the market participants. Going forward, Fed’s preferred inflation tool, the US core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index data will remain in the spotlight. Analysts at Credit Suisse expect “Monthly reading to just round down to 0.3%, leaving YoY core inflation unchanged at 4.7%. Monthly headline inflation should be similar to the core, but the YoY measure should drop to 5.1% owing to an easy base effect.” Silver technical analysis Silver price is auctioning in a Rising Wedge chart pattern that indicates a continuation of upside momentum and every pullback is considered as a buying opportunity for the market participants. The white metal is approaching the horizontal resistance plotted from February 02 high at $24.64. The 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $23.14 is providing a cushion to the Silver price. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is oscillating in the bullish range of 60.00-80.00, which indicates more upside ahead. Silver four-hour chart  

Gold price (XAU/USD) grinds higher within a two-week-old bullish chart pattern, making rounds to $1,980 during Friday’s Asian session. In doing so, th

Gold price seesaws inside two-week-old bullish chart pattern, sluggish of late.Easing fears of banking crisis, downbeat US Dollar favor Gold buyers.Hopes of upbeat core inflation data from Eurozone, United States join strain in China-US ties to prod XAU/USD bulls.Gold price (XAU/USD) grinds higher within a two-week-old bullish chart pattern, making rounds to $1,980 during Friday’s Asian session. In doing so, the XAU/USD reverses the previous weekly loss ahead of the key inflation data from the United States and Eurozone. It’s worth noting that the risk-on mood joins the market’s lack of conviction in the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) further rate hikes to propel the Gold price. Gold price grinds higher as US Dollar softens Gold price cheers downbeat US Dollar performance to brace for the weekly gains even as the hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) concerns and mostly upbeat US data challenge the XAU/USD buyers. The reason for the XAU/USD run-up could also be linked to the quarter-end positioning of the US Dollar Index (DXY). That said, the DXY prints a three-week downtrend, so far, as the greenback bears poke 102.15 level. Easing of bank turmoil fears, sluggish yields add strength to XAU/USD It should be noted that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell joins three other Fed Officials to back further rate hikes on Thursday, citing the need to tame the inflation woes. However, mixed US data raise doubts about the Fed policymakers’ hawkish rhetoric and allowed the Gold price to remain firmer, via sluggish yields and banking hopes. "Inflation remains too high, and recent indicators reinforce my view that there is more work to do to bring inflation down to the 2% target associated with price stability," Federal Reserve Bank of Boston leader Susan Collins said in remarks to a gathering of the National Association for Business Economics per Reuters. Following her was Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari who said, “We have to bring down inflation.” On the same line was Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin saying that if inflation persists, we can react by raising rates further. Not only the rate concerns but the hopes of a secured banking system also favored the sentiment and exerted downside pressure on the DXY, especially amid mixed US data. That said, final readings of the US fourth quarter (Q4) Gross Domestic Product (GDP), also known as the Real GDP, marked an easy Annualized growth number of 2.6% versus 2.7% previous forecasts. It’s worth noting that the Q4 Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Prices matched 3.7% QoQ forecasts and prior while the Core PCE figure grew to 4.4% QoQ versus 4.3% expected and prior. Moving on, the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims rose to 198K for the week ended on March 25 versus 191K prior and 196K market forecasts. Furthermore, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Thursday, “Banking system is sound, even as it has come under pressure,” which in turn pushed back banking sector woes. It’s worth observing that the mixed data and risk-on mod fail to underpin the US 10-year Treasury bond yields as they remain pressured near 3.55% while the two-year counterpart grinds higher around 4.12%, targeting the first weekly gain in four. Hence, sluggish yields join the market’s mixed data and mostly positive sentiment to allow the Gold price to stay firmer. While portraying the mood, Wall Street closed positive for the third consecutive day. China woes weigh on Gold price Although the upbeat sentiment and softer US Dollar allow the Gold price to remain firmer, fears emanating from China, one of the world’s biggest Gold consumers, prod the XAU/USD bulls. That said, fears emanating from China, Russia and North Korea allow the Gold buyers to take a breather. China's Taiwan Affairs Office threatened retaliation over Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen's visit to the US on Wednesday. Additionally, China's Premier Li Qiang recently said that the economic situation in March is even better than in January and February. The policymaker, however, also raised geopolitical tension by opposing trade protectionism and decoupling, which indirectly targets the US. Inflation is the key as central bankers remain hawkish While the Gold price portrays the market’s indecision, despite recent action, fears of higher inflation in the United States and Eurozone join the hawkish central bank comments to challenge the XAU/USD buyers. As a result, today’s Eurozone Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for March and the United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index for February will be closely watched for clear directions. That said, the EU HICP is expected to ease to 7.1% YoY from 8.5% prior but the Core HICP could print annualized growth of 5.7% versus 5.6% previous readings. With this, the Gold price may witness selling pressure if inflation figures suggest no easing either on the headline or on the core basis. Also read: Euro area HICP Preview: Peak inflation or base effects? No trade-off for ECB (for now) On the other hand, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, namely the US Core PCE Price Index, is likely to remain unchanged at 4.7% YoY during February. Though, the monthly figure is expected to ease to 0.4%, from 0.6% prior, and can lure the Gold sellers in case of rising past estimations and previous readings. Also read: US February PCE Inflation Preview: Bad news for the Dollar, good news for the Fed? Gold price technical analysis Gold price portrays a Bullish Pennant chart pattern on the daily formation, currently between $1,958 and $1,995. The same suggests the XAU/USD buyer’s preparations for the next leg towards the north. The upside bias also takes clues from the Moving Average Convergence and Divergence (MACD) indicator’s bullish signal, as well as the firmer Relative Strength Index (RSI) line, placed at 14. It’s worth noting, however, that the RSI line tilts towards the south while the MACD suggests easing bullish bias. As a result, the Gold buyers need a strong push towards the north to cross the $1,995 hurdle, which in turn favors the metal’s theoretical target surrounding the two-month-old ascending resistance line, around $2,025 by the press time. On an immediate basis, the 10-DMA level surrounding $1,971 acts as a nearby resistance. Alternatively, a downside break of $1,958 will defy the bullish chart formation and can quickly direct the Gold sellers toward $1,910, a break of which can push the XAU/USD price to the early February high of near $1,890. Above all, the Gold price remains firmer unless staying beyond the 100-DMA support of $1,850. Gold price: Daily chart Trend: Further upside expected  

As per the prior analysis, USD/JPY Price Analysis: Bears move in and eye a significant correction towards 131.50, whereby USD/JPY moved into a phase o

USD/JPY bulls eye the 133s and the foundations to track down the 135s. Bears are in anticipation of supply at this juncture and for deeper correction in the days ahead.As per the prior analysis, USD/JPY Price Analysis: Bears move in and eye a significant correction towards 131.50, whereby USD/JPY moved into a phase of consolidation below 133.00 the figure, a correction into the W-formation´s neckline was anticipated illustrated as follows: USD/JPY might be expected to return to the midpoint of the W-formation in the coming days where the neckline meets a 50% mean reversion and a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level near 131.50.  It was explained that the bears needed to get over the 132.50s structure and onto the backside of the hourly micro bullish trend as illustrated above. USD/JPY update The topping pattern was put into place but there was no bearish engulfment and the price spiked into stops instead.  However, that is not to say that the downside bias is invalidated, yet. A move lower to break the structure could be the next significant development as illustrated above. However, should the bulls stay committed in the 133s, then the likelihood of a fuller bearish correction will be diminished as the bulls track down the 135s. 

Japan Tokyo CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY) above expectations (3.3%) in March: Actual (3.4%)

Japan Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY) above forecasts (3.1%) in March: Actual (3.2%)

Japan Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY) registered at 3.3% above expectations (2.7%) in March

Japan Jobs / Applicants Ratio below expectations (1.36) in February: Actual (1.34)

Japan Unemployment Rate above expectations (2.4%) in February: Actual (2.6%)

The EUR/JPY edges higher after cracking a four-week-old resistance trendline and climbs above 144.00 as the Asian session begins. At the time of writi

EUR/JPY draws a double bottom in the daily chart, implying that the pair could test the last year’s high.EUR/JPY Price Analysis: Breaking a five-month-old resistance trendline could open the door to testing the 2022 high.The EUR/JPY edges higher after cracking a four-week-old resistance trendline and climbs above 144.00 as the Asian session begins. At the time of writing, the EUR/JPY exchanges hands at around 144.70, registering minuscule gains of 0.05%.EUR/JPY Price actionFrom a longer-term perspective, the EUR/JPY formed a double bottom, meaning that the EUR/JPY pair is upward biased. Once the EUR/JPY cleared a one-month-old resistance trendline, it would collide with a five-month-old resistance trendline at 145.00. A decisive break above the latter would send the EUR/JPY pair rallying toward a 2022 high of 148.40, but it would face some hurdles on its way north. Hence, the EUR/JPY’s first resistance would be March’s high at 145.56, followed by the 145.83 high of December 20. Upside risks would follow at the December 15 high at 146.72, followed by 2022 high at 148.40. In an alternate scenario, the EUR/JPY first support would be the March 30 low at 143.13. A decisive break, and the subsequent demand area tested, would be the 20-day EMA at 142.93, followed by the 50 and 100-day EMAs, each at 142.70 and 142.42. If the downtrend continues, the 200-day EMA at 141.16 would be next.EUR/JPY Daily chartEUR/JPY Technical levels 

US Dollar Index (DXY) prods weekly low around 102.20 as the greenback bears ignore hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) rhetoric amid a risk-on mood during e

US Dollar Index seesaws around weekly low, eyes three-week downtrend.Market’s optimism about banking sector, less confidence in the Fed’s further rate hike capacity weigh on DXY.US Core PCE Price Index will be crucial for US Dollar bull’s return.US Dollar Index (DXY) prods weekly low around 102.20 as the greenback bears ignore hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) rhetoric amid a risk-on mood during early Friday. In doing so, the greenback’s gauge versus the six major currencies prepares for the third consecutive weekly loss. That said, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell joins three other Fed Officials to back further rate hikes on Thursday, citing the need to tame the inflation woes. "Inflation remains too high, and recent indicators reinforce my view that there is more work to do to bring inflation down to the 2% target associated with price stability," Federal Reserve Bank of Boston leader Susan Collins said in remarks to a gathering of the National Association for Business Economics per Reuters. Following her was Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari who said, “We have to bring down inflation.” On the same line was Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin saying that if inflation persists, we can react by raising rates further. Not only the rate concerns but the hopes of a secured banking system also favored the sentiment and exerted downside pressure on the DXY, especially amid mixed US data. That said, final readings of the US fourth quarter (Q4) Gross Domestic Product (GDP), also known as the Real GDP, marked an easy Annualized growth number of 2.6% versus 2.7% previous forecasts. It’s worth noting that the Q4 Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Prices matched 3.7% QoQ forecasts and prior while the Core PCE figure grew to 4.4% QoQ versus 4.3% expected and prior. Moving on, the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims rose to 198K for the week ended on March 25 versus 191K prior and 196K market forecasts.  Meanwhile, fears emanating from China, Russia and North Korea allow the DXY bears to take a breather. China's Taiwan Affairs Office threatened retaliation over Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen's visit to the US on Wednesday. Additionally, China's Premier Li Qiang recently said that the economic situation in March is even better than in January and February. The policymaker, however, also raised geopolitical tension by opposing trade protectionism and decoupling, which indirectly targets the US. Elsewhere, Wall Street closed positive but the yields grind higher and weigh on the US Dollar. Moving on, China NBS PMIs for March will precede the Eurozone Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for March and the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, namely the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index for February, to direct DXY moves. Technical analysis US Dollar Index grinds lower within a descending triangle formation, currently between 101.80 and 102.60.  

The NZD/USD pair is making efforts in keeping its auction above 0.6260 in the early Tokyo session. The Kiwi asset is expected to multiply its upside m

NZD/USD is expected to continue its upside momentum amid a cheerful market mood.The hawkish commentary from Fed Barkin failed to provide support to the USD Index.NZD/USD is at a make or a break near the edge of the Symmetrical Triangle pattern.The NZD/USD pair is making efforts in keeping its auction above 0.6260 in the early Tokyo session. The Kiwi asset is expected to multiply its upside momentum as the US Dollar Index (DXY) seems vulnerable above 102.00 amid positive market sentiment. The hawkish commentary from Richmond Federal Reserve (Fed) President Thomas Barkin failed to provide support to the USD Index. According to Fed Barkin, there is a lot of money available for spending among households. S&P500 continued to remain in a positive trajectory as United States authorities have infused confidence among the market participants that the US banking system is ‘sound and resilient’ and a collapse of three mid-size banks cannot shake the overall banking system. The New Zealand Dollar will remain in action ahead of China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI data, which will release on Monday. But before that, official PMI data by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) will be keenly watched. It is worth noting that New Zealand is one of the leading trading partners of China and higher PMI figures would also strengthen the New Zealand Dollar. On a two-hour scale, NZD/USD is at a make or a break near the downward-sloping trendline of the Symmetrical Triangle chart pattern. The downward-sloping trendline of the aforementioned pattern is plotted from March 23 high at 0.6295 while the upward-sloping trendline is placed from Marc 16 low at 0.6161. The Kiwi asset is auctioning above the 50-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which indicates the short-term trend is bullish. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) (14) is looking to climb above 60.00, which will result in the activation of bullish momentum. A decisive break above March 29 high at 0.6272 will drive the asset towards March 23 high at 0.6295 followed by February 07 high at 0.6363. On the flip side, a breakdown of March 21 low at 0.6167 will drag the asset toward March 15 low at 0.6139. A slippage below the latter will expose the asset for more downside toward the round-level support at 0.6100. NZD/USD two-hour chart  

South Korea Service Sector Output came in at 0.7%, above forecasts (0.1%) in February

South Korea Industrial Output (YoY) came in at -8.1%, above expectations (-8.3%) in February

South Korea Industrial Output Growth registered at -3.2%, below expectations (-0.5%) in February

WTI crude oil price remains firmer at the highest levels in more than two weeks as bulls flirt with the $74.50 level ahead of China’s official PMIs fo

WTI crude oil grinds higher at two-week top as hopes of more energy demand joins supply crunch talks.OPEC+ is likely to continue with existing output cut policy in next week.Receding fears of banking crisis, softer US Dollar allow Oil buyers to keep the reins.China NBS Manufacturing PMI, inflation clues from Eurozone, US will be the key for clear directions.WTI crude oil price remains firmer at the highest levels in more than two weeks as bulls flirt with the $74.50 level ahead of China’s official PMIs for March during early Friday. In doing so, the black gold cheers the market’s optimism and the broad US Dollar to brace for the biggest weekly gains since early February. US Dollar Index (DXY) eyes three-week losing streak as hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) comments fail to gain support from second-tier data and raise expectations of only limited rate hike options available to the policymakers. That said, Apart from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, three Fed Officials backed further rate hikes on Thursday to tame the inflation woes. Apart from the Fed concerns, hopes of sound banking system also favored the WTI bulls as Apart from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, three Fed Officials backed further rate hikes on Thursday to tame the inflation woes. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Thursday, “Banking system is sound, even as it has come under pressure.” Elsewhere, China’s hopes of upbeat march and talks of no change in the production policies of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies led by Russia, known collectively as OPEC+, seem to have favored the commodity bulls. “OPEC+ is likely to stick to its existing deal to cut oil output at a meeting on Monday, five delegates from the producer group told Reuters, after oil prices recovered following a drop to 15-month lows,” said Reuters. Although the Oil bulls are in the driver’s seat, the price reaches the short-term key resistance and hence upbeat prints of China’s official PMIs for March becomes necessary for the quote to remain firmer. It should be noted that the higher inflation figures can back the latest hawkish rhetoric among the major central bank officials and could challenge the WTI buyers. Technical analysis A clear upside break of the previous support line from early December 2022, around $74.50 by the press time, becomes necessary for the WTI crude oil bulls to witness further upside. Otherwise, a pullback towards February’s low near $72.50 can be expected  

After facing a resistance trendline, which intersects with the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), the USD/CHF dropped and extended its losses fo

USD/CHF dropped after facing the 20-day EMA and a resistance trendline, extending its losses for two straight daysUSD/CHF Price Analysis: Short term, a triple bottom could cap the pair’s fall and open the door to test 0.9300.After facing a resistance trendline, which intersects with the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), the USD/CHF dropped and extended its losses for two straight days. At the time of writing, the USD/CHF is trading at 0.9133, up 0.08%, as Friday’s Asian session begins.USD/CHF Price actionThe USD/CHF slid from the 0.9200 mark as the US Dollar (USD) weakened across the FX board. Furthermore, the USD/CHF pair is downward biased, though to further cement its bearish case, the major needs to break below the March 13 swing low at 0.9070. Once cleared, the USD/CHF pair would test the YTD lows at 0.9059, which, once cleared, could open the door towards 0.9000. On the flip side, buyers reclaim the 20-day EMA at 0.9215, and the major could test 0.9300. Short term, the USD/CHF4-hour chart portrays a triple bottom forming, though it is at the brisk of being invalidated if the spot price tumbles and extends below 0.9118. If buyers keep the price above the latter, the chart pattern will remain in play. If the USD/CHF breaks above the daily pivot at 0.9150, the next resistance would be 0.9180, followed by March 30 high at 0.9200. Once cleared, the next reistace would be the 100-EMA at 0.9218, ahead of the 200-EMA at 0.9244. In an alternate scenario, if the USD/CHF pair dwindles below 0.9118, that would pave the way to test the YTD low at 0.9059.USD/CHF 4-Hour chartUSD/CHF Technical levels 

The USD/CAD pair has refreshed its five-week low below 1.3516 in the early Asian session amid weakness in the US Dollar Index (DXY) and rising oil pri

USD/CAD has registered a four-day losing streak amid a declining USD Index.S&P500 continued its upside momentum as investors are cheering ebbing fears of the potential banking crisis.Canada’s monthly GDP (Jan) is expected to expand by 0.3% vs. a contraction of 0.1%.The USD/CAD pair has refreshed its five-week low below 1.3516 in the early Asian session amid weakness in the US Dollar Index (DXY) and rising oil prices. The Loonie asset has turned sideways after a four-day losing streak and is looking vulnerable above 1.3510. The USD Index witnessed an intense sell-off on Thursday after surrendering the critical support of 102.40. Less room for further upside in interest rates by the Federal Reserve (Fed) has built bearish bets for the USD Index. S&P500 futures continued their upside momentum on Thursday as investors are cheering ebbing fears of a potential banking crisis, portraying a significant jump in the risk appetite of market participants. The demand for US government bonds remained choppy as investors don’t see more casualties to the banking system. However, the 10-year US treasury yields surrendered their entire gains and settled Thursday’s session below 3.55%. Going forward, the United States' core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index data will remain in the spotlight. Analysts at CIBC expect “The Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, core PCE prices, likely decelerated to a 0.4% monthly pace, slightly slower than its CPI counterpart given the lower weight of shelter in the index, but still too hot to reach on-target inflation, and justifying the Fed’s decision to raise rates further in March. We are roughly in line with the consensus, which should limit any market reaction.” The Canadian Dollar will dance to the tunes of monthly Canada’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (Jan) data. As per the consensus, the economic data will expand by 0.3% vs. a contraction of 0.1%. On the oil front, oil prices rose sharply above $74.00 in hopes that fewer rate hikes from western central banks collaboratively will strengthen the overall oil demand ahead. It is worth noting that Canada is the leading exporter of oil to the United States and higher oil prices will support the Canadian Dollar.  

GBP/USD bulls keep the reins around a two-month high near 1.2390 as they approach a critical resistance area during early Friday. In doing so, the Cab

GBP/USD stays firmer at the highest levels in two months.Successful trading above a fortnight-old ascending support line, 2.5-month-old horizontal area keeps Cable bulls hopeful.Multiple tops marked since early December 2022 highlights 1.2445-50 as the key upside resistance.Upbeat oscillators add strength to the bullish bias.GBP/USD bulls keep the reins around a two-month high near 1.2390 as they approach a critical resistance area during early Friday. In doing so, the Cable pair braces for five-week uptrend. That said, a sustained break of the 10-week-old horizontal resistance area, now support around 1.2285-65, joins the clear respect of a fortnight-long ascending trend line, close to 1.2320, to keep the GBP/USD pair buyers hopeful. Adding strength to the upside bias are the bullish MACD signals and the firmer RSI (14) line, not overbought. As a result, the Cable pair appears well-set to challenge an area comprising multiple tops marked since December 13, 2022, around mid-1.2400s. Given the absence of the overbought RSI, in addition to the aforementioned price-positive catalysts, the GBP/USD is likely to cross the stated 1.2450 crucial resistance. Following that, the 61.8% Fibonacci Expansion (FE) of its November 2022 to March 2023 moves, near 1.2610 will be in focus. Meanwhile, the previously stated support line and the broad horizontal area, respectively near 1.2320 and 1.2285-65, restrict short-term GBP/USD downside. In a case where GBP/USD drops below 1.2265, the mid-month top around the 1.2200 threshold could lure the bears. It should be noted that the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the Cable pair’s November 2022 to January 2023 moves, near 1.2140, precedes the 1.2000 psychological magnet to challenge the bulls afterward. GBP/USD: Daily chart Trend: Further upside expected  

The EUR/USD pair has shown decent buying interest after a gradual correction to near the round-level support of 1.0900 in the late New York session. T

EUR/USD has defended the 1.0900 support as investors see more rate hikes from the ECB.Solid wage growth and labor shortage led to a jump in monthly German inflation.S&P500 futures continued their upside journey on Thursday as investors’ confidence has been restored.The EUR/USD pair has shown decent buying interest after a gradual correction to near the round-level support of 1.0900 in the late New York session. The major currency pair has resumed its upside journey as investors are anticipating more rate hikes from the European Central Bank (ECB) as German inflation remained higher than expected. In Germany, prices of goods and services in March have accelerated by 1.1%, higher than the consensus of 0.8% and the former release of 1.0%. Annual German Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) landed at 7.8%, significantly lower than the prior release of 9.3% but higher than the estimates of 7.5%. Annual HICP figures have softened firmly led by lower energy prices, however, prices of core products look solid amid the shortage of labor. The labor market has grabbed the bargaining power due to a shortage of job seekers and wage growth is now at between 5% and 6%, the highest in decades, as reported by Reuters. This has bolstered the case for more rate hikes from ECB President Christine Lagarde. On Friday, the release of Eurozone HICP and German Retail Sales data will provide more clarity. Annual preliminary Eurozone HICP is expected to decelerate to 7.1% vs. the prior print of 8.5%. Along with them, monthly German Retail Sales are expected to expand by 0.5% against a contraction of 0.3%. Meanwhile, the upside bias for the shared currency pair is also backed by the declining US Dollar Index (DXY). The USD Index is juggling after a fresh weekly low at 102.07. The USD Index failed to capitalize on the anticipation of one more rate hike this year by Federal Reserve (Fed) chair Jerome Powell in a private meeting with United States lawmakers. S&P500 futures continued their upside journey on Thursday as investors’ confidence has been restored after easing US banking jitters, portraying a higher risk appetite of the market participants.  

AUD/USD bulls occupy the driver’s seat while reversing the previous weekly losses around 0.6715 as traders await the key inflation clues from the US o

AUD/USD reverses the previous weekly loss, grinds higher of late.Firmer sentiment, softer US Dollar allow Aussie bulls to keep the reins.Fed policymakers tease further rate hikes but don’t confirm the size of it and allow policy doves to remain hopeful.China-linked fears jostle with easing bank turmoil fears to tease buyers ahead of key data.AUD/USD bulls occupy the driver’s seat while reversing the previous weekly losses around 0.6715 as traders await the key inflation clues from the US on Friday. Adding importance to the day’s Asian session are China’s official Purchasing Managers’ Indexes (PMIs) for March. Receding fears of the banking crisis join the confusion about the future rate hikes among the key central banks to allow the AUD/USD pair to cheer the risk-on mood. Adding strength to the optimism, as well as the Aussie price are the comments from China suggesting higher growth figures in March that the first two months of the year. That said, Fed Chair Jerome Powell teased one more rate hike in the current year and the other policymakers followed the suit while highlighting the task of taming inflation. However, the majority of them appeared cautious of not sounding too hawkish and hence raised doubts that the price pressure is easing. Additionally favoring the risk appetite, as well as the AUD/USD price, were comments suggesting the soundness of the banking sector. Alternatively, China's Taiwan Affairs Office threatened retaliation over Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen's visit to the US on Wednesday. Additionally, China's Premier Li Qiang recently said that the economic situation in March is even better than in January and February. The policymaker, however, also raised geopolitical tension by opposing trade protectionism and decoupling, which indirectly targets the US. Amid these plays, Wall Street closed positive but the yields grind higher and weigh on the US Dollar. Moving on, China NBS PMIs for March will precede the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge to direct AUD/USD moves. Forecasts suggest that China’s headline NBS Manufacturing PMI is expected to ease to 51.5 versus 52.6 prior. Also read: US February PCE Inflation Preview: Bad news for the Dollar, good news for the Fed? Technical analysis AUD/USD extends recovery from a three-week-old ascending support line, around 0.6660, towards 200-DMA hurdle surrounding 0.6755.  

Gold price has been buoyed in part by a weaker US Dollar and expectations for a fall in interest rates. The US Dollar index was down 0.4% at 102.20, r

Gold price bulls are in the market and eye the $2,000s.The Federal Reserve´s preferred inflation measure could be a catalyst on Friday.Gold price has been buoyed in part by a weaker US Dollar and expectations for a fall in interest rates. The US Dollar index was down 0.4% at 102.20, raising the appeal of dollar-denominated gold prices. XAU/USD has traveled between a low of $1,955 and $1,984.36 on Thursday.  Analysts at TD Securities argued that investor participation has remained muted despite little evidence of a boon from safe-haven demand in gold markets. ´´In reality, underwhelming CTA flows have weighed on the white metal's performance, despite substantial buying activity in China,´´ the analysts explained. ´´Today, prices are surging overnight amid several large-scale CTA buying programs, as a drift lower in key trigger levels has finally kicked off significant algorithmic buying activity that should help the metal outperform, ´´ the analysts added further.  Federal Reserve sentiment, key for Gold price Meanwhile, with the Federal Reserve in mind, the February reading of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) on Friday, the  Fed's preferred inflation gauge, will be released and could be a catalyst for the Gold price. January figures showed a sharp acceleration in consumer spending so the data will be closely eyed.  ´´Comments from Fed officials have been mixed with Jerome Powell indicating last week that the impact of the recent turmoil in the banking system could be the equivalent of 25bp of tightening,´´ analysts at ANZ Bank said. ´´However other Federal Reserve officials have pointed out that more tightening will be required if inflation risks persist.´´ Meanwhile, US data on Thursday showed that Jobless Claims last week rose more than expected from the week before indicating a cooling labor market, while fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product growth was slightly lower at 2.6% compared with earlier estimates of 2.7%, both supporting the case for a softer Fed policy. Gold price technical analysis Gold price was testing the $1,980s resistance but the W-formation was a bearish pattern and this pulled on the Gold price. The gold price bulls have steppe din at neckline support and the price has rallied back into resistance. A pull back into the Fibonacci scale could be the next development before a move higher should the Gold price bulls stay committed with eyes on a restest in the $2,000s

The GBP/JPY pair is gaining 0.53% on Thursday and is trading at 164.29 after hitting a daily low of 162.96. The pair's uptrend is attributed to the ma

The GBP/JPY daily chart tests a three-month-old resistance trendline at around 164.70-90.The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Rate of Change (RoC) shifted bullish, indicating an upward trend for GBP/JPY.GBP/JPY Price Analysis: Downside risks remain below 164.00.The GBP/JPY pair is gaining 0.53% on Thursday and is trading at 164.29 after hitting a daily low of 162.96. The pair's uptrend is attributed to the market's current risk-on sentiment and expectations that central banks will pause hiking rates after the recent banking turmoil in the US and Switzerland.GBP/JPY Price actionThe GBP/JPY daily chart suggests the pair is testing a three-month-old resistance trendline that passes at around 164.70-90, trading at 4-week highs. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shifted bullish, suggesting the GBP/JPY outlook is upwards. The Rate of Change (RoC) jumped from a neutral stance after the GBP/JPY snapped three days of consecutive losses, erased on Thursday. If the GBP/JPY continues its uptrend, the next resistance would be the February 27 high at 166.00. A breach of the latter will expose the December 19 daily high at 167.01, followed by the December 12 high at 169.27. On the other hand, the GBP/JPY first support would be the psychological level at 164.00. Downside risks lie at the next support area at the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 161.87, ahead of testing the 50-day EMA at 161.18.GBP/JPY Daily chartGBP/JPY Technical levels 

The DXY is under pressure, particularly against its main European rivals, amid risk appetite and following German inflation data. On Friday, the focus

The DXY is under pressure, particularly against its main European rivals, amid risk appetite and following German inflation data. On Friday, the focus will be on US and Eurozone inflation figures. Japan will also release the Tokyo CPI, alongside Industrial Production and Retail Sales. On Asian hours, China's official PMI for manufacturing and service sectors will be released.Here is what you need to know on Friday, March 31: Another positive day for Wall Street and a quiet one in the Treasury market. The Dow Jones rose 140 points or 0.43% to post the highest daily close in two weeks, while the Nasdaq reached seven-month highs. Banking jitters continue to fade, and economic data shows no signs of a “hard” or even “soft” landing. A pessimist uncertain outlook is being replaced by just an uncertain outlook. “The challenge in assessing today’s economy is reconciling the strength of the recent data with the potential for weakness coming from the banking system,” Tom Barkin, Richmond Fed President. The bond market does not look as optimistic as stocks. US yields drifted sideways on Thursday, not reflecting risk appetite. Bonds will probably take a more decisive direction after Friday’s US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure data. German inflation figures showed a big decline in the annual rate but not as much as expected. On Friday, Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) is due. So far, March preliminary figures show that inflation is slowing down but is still elevated, just like what European Central Bank (ECB) officials say publicly. Volatility is set to rise on Friday, considering key inflation numbers due and also the fact that it is the last trading day of the week, month and quarter.EUR/USD rose past 1.0900 to test the recent top. The pair remains bullish, consolidating important weekly gains, that could face some challenges on Friday with the critical economic reports due. GBP/USD posted the highest daily close in two months, near 1.2400, boosted by risk appetite and the weaker Dollar.USD/JPY is moving sideways around 132.60. The US Dollar and the Japanese Yen are suffering from the rally in Wall Street. USD/CHF posted the lowest close in weeks and is approaching the key long-term support at 0.9050.AUD/USD and NZD/USD rose above 0.6700 and 0.6250, respectively. USD/CAD fell for the fourth consecutive day, and it keeps trending lower, last seen trading around 1.3525. It was a positive day for Emerging market currencies. The biggest gainer was the Rand (ZAR), after the South African central bank surprised with a bigger-thank-expected rate hike. The Bank of Mexico, as expected, raised rates by 25 basis points.Gold broke above $1,970 and climbed above $1,980, while Silver surged 2.40% to $23.80, the highest level in two months. 
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Mexico Fiscal Balance, pesos below expectations (-0.9B) in February: Actual (-74.37B)

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