Forex News Timeline

USD/CAD holds positive ground near 1.3705 on Thursday. US Durable Goods Orders rose by 2.6% MoM in March from the previous reading of a 0.7% increase.Canada’s February Retail Sales data supports the outlook for the BoC rate cut as soon as June. The USD/CAD pair extends its recovery around 1.3705 during the early Asian trading hours on Thursday. The weaker-than-expected Canada’s Retail Sales weigh on the Canadian Dollar (USD). Later on Thursday, investors will closely monitor the US preliminary Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized, which is projected to grow 2.5% in Q1. 

Investors anticipate that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will lower its Fed Funds Rate in September 2024, with a chance of nearly 70%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Last week, the Fed policymaker stated that the central bank’s current restrictive policy is appropriate and that the Fed wouldn’t cut rates until the end of the year. The higher-for-longer US rate narrative provides some support for the Greenback against the CAD. 

About the data, the US Census Bureau showed on Wednesday that Durable Goods Orders in the United States rose by 2.6% MoM in March from the previous reading of a 0.7% increase. Excluding transportation, Durable Goods Orders gained by 0.2% MoM, below the market consensus of 0.3%

On the Loonie front, the recent Canadian Retail Sales data has triggered speculation that the Bank of Canada (BoC) might cut interest rates at its next meeting in June. Retail Sales in Canada decreased 0.1% MoM in February, worse than the estimation of a 0.1% increase. Excluding autos, Retail Sales fell 0.3% MoM in the same period, compared to the forecast of 0.0%. Additionally, the decline in crude oil prices exerts some selling pressure on the commodity-linked Loonie, as Canada is the largest crude oil exporter to the United States (US).  USD/CAD Overview Today last price 1.3704 Today Daily Change 0.0041 Today Daily Change % 0.30 Today daily open 1.3663   Trends Daily SMA20 1.365 Daily SMA50 1.3576 Daily SMA100 1.3497 Daily SMA200 1.3534   Levels Previous Daily High 1.3714 Previous Daily Low 1.3656 Previous Weekly High 1.3846 Previous Weekly Low 1.3724 Previous Monthly High 1.3614 Previous Monthly Low 1.342 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.3678 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.3692 Daily Pivot Point S1 1.3641 Daily Pivot Point S2 1.362 Daily Pivot Point S3 1.3583 Daily Pivot Point R1 1.37 Daily Pivot Point R2 1.3736 Daily Pivot Point R3 1.3758    

AUD/USD retreats from a peak of 0.6529 following an unexpected surge in Australian inflation figures.The US Dollar Index edges higher, influenced by solid US economic indicators and investor caution ahead of key GDP report.Despite a strong Q1 inflation report suggesting robust Australian economic activity, expectations for an RBA rate cut linger among analysts.The Aussie Dollar finished Wednesday’s session with decent gains of 0.15% against the US Dollar, yet it retreated from weekly highs of 0.6529, which it hit after a hotter-than-expected inflation report. Economic data from the United States (US) boosted the Greenback, which, according to the US Dollar Index (DXY), gained 0.13%, up to 105.82. As the Asian session begins, the AUD/USD trades at 0.6495. down 0.02%. AUD/USD retreats below 0.6500 amid strong US data Wall Street was mixed on Wednesday after META reported earnings, which were better than expected but weighed on the US equity markets. Investors remain cautious ahead of the release of the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report on Thursday, which is expected to show the largest economy in the world grew 2.5% QoQ in the first quarter this year. At the same time, Initial Jobless Claims are expected to increase from 212K to 214K. Aside from this, past data revealed on Wednesday suggested the US economy remains solid. Mach’s Durable Goods Orders increased 2.6% MoM, up from a 0.7% rise previously and surpassing 2.5% estimates. Core goods, which excluded transportation, increased by 0.2% MoM, an improvement over February's 0.1% increase but falling short of the 0.3% projected. On Wednesday, during the Asian session, Australia’s Bureau of Statistics (ABS) revealed that inflation for Q1 2024 exceeded estimates by far of 0.6%, increasing QoQ by 1%. Annually based, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) expanded 3.6% YoY, down from 4.1% but above projections of 3.4%. Traders sent the AUD/USD rallying above 0.6500 as they priced out a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in 2024. Despite this red-hot report, ANZ Bank analysts expect the RBA to cut rates in November. They added, "We think the RBA will want to see a couple of quarters of lower non-tradables and services inflation to be convinced that overall inflation will not only return to the 2–3% target band but remain there.” AUD/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook Given the fundamental backdrop, the AUD/USD rallied toward the confluence of the 200 and 50-day moving averages (DMAs), though buyers lacked the strength to pierce that strong resistance level at 0.6526/32, retreating sharply back below the 0.6500 mark. That said, if the pair drops below the April 24 low of 0.6483, the AUD/USD could dive toward the February 13 low at 0.6442. Once cleared, up next would be 0.6400.AUD/USD Overview Today last price 0.6496 Today Daily Change 0.0009 Today Daily Change % 0.14 Today daily open 0.6487   Trends Daily SMA20 0.6505 Daily SMA50 0.6533 Daily SMA100 0.6589 Daily SMA200 0.653   Levels Previous Daily High 0.649 Previous Daily Low 0.6441 Previous Weekly High 0.6493 Previous Weekly Low 0.6362 Previous Monthly High 0.6667 Previous Monthly Low 0.6478 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 0.6472 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 0.646 Daily Pivot Point S1 0.6455 Daily Pivot Point S2 0.6424 Daily Pivot Point S3 0.6406 Daily Pivot Point R1 0.6504 Daily Pivot Point R2 0.6522 Daily Pivot Point R3 0.6554    

US Dollar tips into a fresh 34-year high against Japanese Yen on Wednesday.BoJ policy statement is expected as markets await Yen intervention.US data sends mixed shocks through markets as Fed watchers look on.USD/JPY broke into its highest chart territory since June of 1990 on Wednesday, peaking near 155.40 for the first time in 34 years as the Japanese Yen continues to tumble across the broad fx market. According to reporting from Nikkei, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is expected to discuss “impact of accelerating Yen depreciation”, a clear sign to market participants that BoJ intervention in the fx markets could be impending if the JPY continues to soften. Key US data is due in the back half of the trading week with US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index inflation slated for Thursday and Friday, respectively. US GDP is expected to ease to 2.5% for the annualized first quarter compared to the previous 3.4%. US Core PCE inflation in March is forecast to hold steady in March. Investors hoping for signs of rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will continue to celebrate downside economic indicators from the US, and will be hoping for slowing GDP growth and easing PCE inflation prints. The BoJ will be releasing its latest Monetary Policy Statement early Friday, and a press conference from BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda is expected to follow at an unspecified time. Before the BoJ, Japan’s Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the year ended April will print in the early Friday market session. Headline Tokyo YoY CPI is expected to hold steady at 2.6% in April, with Core-core Tokyo CPI inflation (headline inflation less volatile food and energy prices) expected to tick down slightly to 2.7% from 2.9%. USD/JPY technical outlook With the pair hitting its highest bids in over three decades, USD/JPY is on pace to close in the green for a fourth consecutive month. The pair is up nearly 6% from the last swing low near 146.50 in March, and USD/JPY has climbed almost 8% since crossing the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at the beginning of 2024. USD/JPY daily chart

GBP/USD trades on a weaker note around 1.2460 in Thursday’s early Asian session.The US Durable Goods Orders rose 2.6% in March, compared to the 0.7% increase (revised from 1.4%) in February.The BoE is expected to wait until next quarter to lower borrowing costs, according to analysts from a Reuters poll.The US advanced Q1 GDP growth numbers will be in the spotlight on Thursday. The GBP/USD pair snaps the two-day winning streak near 1.2460 amid the modest rebound of the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday during the early Asian session. The release of the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the first quarter (Q1) will take center stage on the day. Also, the usual weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Pending Home Sales will be due. 

On Wednesday, US Durable Goods Orders improved by 2.6%, or $7.3 billion, to $283.4 billion in March, compared to the 0.7% increase (revised from 1.4%) in February. The increase in overall orders was the biggest since November 2023, according to the US Census Bureau. Meanwhile, Durable Goods Orders ex-transportation increased by 0.2%, while new orders excluding defense rose 2.3% in March. Both figures came in weaker than expected. Nonetheless, these reports did not have a significant impact on the US Dollar Index (DXY). 

Several US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials and Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that rate cuts aren’t coming in the coming months as inflation remains stickier than expected. The hawkish comments and the higher-for-longer stance from US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials have boosted the Greenback and created a headwind for the GBP/USD pair. 

On the other hand, the markets anticipate that the Bank of England (BoE) will wait until next quarter to lower borrowing costs, according to median forecasts in a Reuters poll. The BoE Governor Andrew Bailey and other BoE officials stated that inflation in the United Kingdom declined in line with the central bank's expectations and the risk of elevated inflation had reduced, paving the way for a rate cut. The speculation is that the UK Central Bank will begin its easing cycle before the US Fed drags the Pound Sterling (GBP) lower and caps the downside of the major pair.  GBP/USD Overview Today last price 1.2459 Today Daily Change 0.0010 Today Daily Change % 0.08 Today daily open 1.2449   Trends Daily SMA20 1.2538 Daily SMA50 1.2629 Daily SMA100 1.2652 Daily SMA200 1.2563   Levels Previous Daily High 1.2459 Previous Daily Low 1.2332 Previous Weekly High 1.2499 Previous Weekly Low 1.2367 Previous Monthly High 1.2894 Previous Monthly Low 1.2575 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.241 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.238 Daily Pivot Point S1 1.2368 Daily Pivot Point S2 1.2287 Daily Pivot Point S3 1.2241 Daily Pivot Point R1 1.2495 Daily Pivot Point R2 1.254 Daily Pivot Point R3 1.2621    

The Guppy breaks into new chart territory above 193.60, a nine-year high.Deflating JPY is rapidly approaching standoff territory with nervous BoJ.Japanese inflation figures, BoJ rate call loom ahead on Friday.The GBP/JPY broke into a fresh nine-year high above 193.60 on Wednesday as the Pound Sterling (GBP) sees recovery bidding and the Japanese Yen (JPY) continues to weaken despite increasingly interventionist rhetoric from the Bank of Japan (BoJ).  According to reporting from Nikkei, the BoJ is set to discuss the “impact of accelerating Yen depreciation”, a clear warning shot that the Japanese central bank could be weighing market operations to bring current Yen moves under heel. The BoJ is slated to deliver its latest Monetary Policy Report and rate call early Friday. The Pound Sterling is enjoying a reprieve from recent selling pressure after Tuesday’s UK Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) recovered significant ground, bounding to 54.9 from the previous 53.1 and vaulting over the forecast downtick to 53.0. The only thing left of note on the economic docket for the UK this week will be Thursday’s GfK Consumer Confidence for April, which is expected to improve, albeit slightly, to -20 from the current -21. Early Friday will also see the latest print of Japan’s Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation. Tokyo CPI inflation is expected to hold steady at 2.6% for the year ended April, while Core-core Tokyo CPI (headline inflation less volatile food and energy prices) is expected to ease slightly to 2.7% from 2.9% YoY. GBP/JPY technical outlook The Guppy broke through a recent technical barrier to squeeze out a fresh nine-year high just above the 193.60 level as the pair continues to price in technical support from the 190.40 region.  GBP/JPY has been trending firmly bullish as the Yen continues to soften. The pair is up around 8% after a bullish bounce from the 200-day Exponential Moving Average near 179.00 at the start of 2024. The 200-day EMA is now breaking through the 185.00 handle as the bullish Guppy runs deeper into bull country. GBP/JPY hourly chart GBP/JPY daily chart

The daily RSI reveals potential minor correction, indicating latent buying momentum.The hourly indicators show fluctuating momentum, indicating a possible pause in the bearish impulse.For bulls to make ground, they would need to assert above the 20-day SMAs.The NZD/USD rose to 0.5937 on Wednesday’s session, presenting subtle gains. Long-term bearish forces maintain overall control of the pair's course. However, there are signals that the bulls may be waking up and as sellers lose traction, it might be the buyer's turn now. The daily chart Relative Strength Index (RSI) languishes in negative territory. However, an uptick suggests a potential minor correction following many days of depressed readings. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reveals a fresh green bar, signaling that positive momentum is starting to build, albeit the prevailing trend remains bearish. NZD/USD daily chart Zooming in, the hourly RSI readings display more fluctuations, swinging between the 40 and 55 marks within Wednesday's timeframe. Furthermore, the hourly MACD shows decreasing red bars, indicating a decline in the pair's downward momentum on this shorter-term chart. NZD/USD hourly chart Taking a broader view, the NZD/USD has stayed below its 20, 100, and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). This positioning below the SMAs reveals a bearish trend prevailing in short- and long-term frames. Wednesday's rejection of buyers at 0.5960, at the 20-day SMA, reinforces the dominance of sellers in the market and suggests that the downward trend may continue. This situation implies that the current buying momentum isn’t strong enough to be considered a bullish signal. However, the tables would change if the buyers manage to conquer that level in the next sessions.   NZD/USD Overview Today last price 0.5936 Today Daily Change 0.0003 Today Daily Change % 0.05 Today daily open 0.5933   Trends Daily SMA20 0.5965 Daily SMA50 0.6055 Daily SMA100 0.6119 Daily SMA200 0.6051   Levels Previous Daily High 0.5949 Previous Daily Low 0.5902 Previous Weekly High 0.5954 Previous Weekly Low 0.5851 Previous Monthly High 0.6218 Previous Monthly Low 0.5956 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 0.5931 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 0.592 Daily Pivot Point S1 0.5907 Daily Pivot Point S2 0.5881 Daily Pivot Point S3 0.586 Daily Pivot Point R1 0.5954 Daily Pivot Point R2 0.5975 Daily Pivot Point R3 0.6001