Forex News Timeline

Thursday, April 18, 2024

United States EIA Natural Gas Storage Change registered at 50B, below expectations (54B) in April 12

The NZD/USD pair struggles to extend recovery above the immediate resistance of 0.5920 in Thursday’s early American session.

NZD/USD faces pressure while attempting to extend recovery above 0.5920 as market sentiment turns risk-averse.The US Dollar rebounds amid fears that the Fed will keep interest rates higher for a longer period.The RBNZ is expected to pivot to rate cuts starting in November.The NZD/USD pair struggles to extend recovery above the immediate resistance of 0.5920 in Thursday’s early American session. The Kiwi asset faces pressure as the US Dollar rebounds after correcting as investors fear inflation in the United States economy will remain stubbornly higher. The US Dollar Index (DXY) recovers above 106.00 after correcting to 105.75. The market sentiment turns risk-averse as investors worry about deepening Middle East tensions. The S&P 500 opens on a cautious note as Israel refuses to make a truce with Iran after meeting with foreign ministers of the United Kingdom and Germany. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made clear that, “their state will do everything necessary to defend itself” reported by The Times. 10-year US Treasury yields rise sharply to 4.63% as investors hope that strong US economic outlook due to tight labor market conditions and robust consumer spending. This will keep inflation persistently higher and will allow Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers to keep interest rates higher for a longer period. Meanwhile, traders have repriced speculation about the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) 's rate cuts. The central is expected to pivot to rate cuts in November as NZ inflation grew by 0.6%, as expected in the first quarter of 2024. NZD/USD faces selling pressure near at April 1 low near 0.5940, which turns into a resistance for the Kiwi bulls on an hourly timeframe. The near-term outlook remains bearish as the asset trades below the 200-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which trades around 0.5950. The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) drops after failing to sustain above 60.00, suggesting that sellers use the pullback to build fresh shorts. Fresh downside would appear if the asset breaks below April 17 low at 0.5870. This would drag the asset toward 8 September 2023 low at 0.5847, followed by the round-level support of 0.5900 On the flip side, a recovery move above March 18 high at 0.6100 will drive the pair toward March 12 low at 0.6135. A breach of the latter will drive the asset further to February 9 high around 0.6160. NZD/USD hourly chartNZD/USD Overview Today last price 0.5914 Today Daily Change -0.0002 Today Daily Change % -0.03 Today daily open 0.5916   Trends Daily SMA20 0.5985 Daily SMA50 0.6071 Daily SMA100 0.6129 Daily SMA200 0.606   Levels Previous Daily High 0.5926 Previous Daily Low 0.586 Previous Weekly High 0.6079 Previous Weekly Low 0.5933 Previous Monthly High 0.6218 Previous Monthly Low 0.5956 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 0.5901 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 0.5885 Daily Pivot Point S1 0.5876 Daily Pivot Point S2 0.5835 Daily Pivot Point S3 0.581 Daily Pivot Point R1 0.5941 Daily Pivot Point R2 0.5966 Daily Pivot Point R3 0.6007    

United States Existing Home Sales (MoM) came in at 4.19M below forecasts (4.2M) in March

United States Existing Home Sales Change (MoM): -4.3% (March) vs previous 9.5%

New York Federal Reserve President John Williams said on Thursday that he doesn't feel an urgency to cut rates, per Reuters.

New York Federal Reserve President John Williams said on Thursday that he doesn't feel an urgency to cut rates, per Reuters. Key takeaways Fed is data dependent and the data have been very good." "We have a strong economy." Fed rates haven't caused the economy to slow too much." "Economic imbalances have been reduced." "Monetary policy is in a good place." "I don't feel urgency to cut rates." "Eventually interest rates will need to be lower." "Rate cuts will be determined by economic activity." "Fed rate hikes are not my baseline forecast." "If data called for higher rates, Fed would hike." Market reaction The US Dollar Index showed no reaction to these comments and was last seen rising 0.1% on the day at 105.95.

Silver (XAG/USD) has broken out of the narrow range it was trapped in since the start of 2023, which ran from between roughly $21.00 and $26.00, and risen up to the top of a larger consolidation.

Silver price has risen up and touched the top of a huge four-year consolidation at just shy of $30.00. XAG/USD has since pulled back and the RSI is flashing overbought on the weekly chart. There is a risk of a deeper correction, although a clear break above the consolidation would confirm more upside. Silver (XAG/USD) has broken out of the narrow range it was trapped in since the start of 2023, which ran from between roughly $21.00 and $26.00, and risen up to the top of a larger consolidation.   The precious metal has rallied rapidly over the last two weeks and reached the next key resistance level at the 2020 highs of $29.86. This is also the ceiling of a massive consolidation zone Silver price has been trading up and down in since 2020.  Since touching the top of the zone earlier this week XAG/USD has pulled back down to the $28.60s over the last few days.  Silver Weekly ChartThe Relative Strength Index (RSI) momentum indicator has entered overbought territory at 71.96, which indicates Silver may be peaking. There is an increased risk of a pullback evolving and long holders are advised not to add to their positions.  It is rare for the RSI to reach overbought on the weekly chart. The last time this occurred was at the August 2020 highs over three and a half years ago. A considerable pullback then followed, which took Silver price back down to $21.00 – an over 30% decline.  It is too early to say the same will happen this time, but there is clearly a risk of a deep correction.  The short and intermediate-term trends are bullish, however, so there is also a possibility of a continuation higher.  A decisive break above the 2021 high of $30.07 would provide confirmation of a continuation higher and a breakout of the whole four-year consolidation Silver has been trading in. Such a move might be expected to reach $32.40 initially, where former resistance lies.  If a correction evolves, however, the exchange rate would be expected to fall to support from the former range highs at $26.00 initially, however, given the shorter time frame trends are bullish a recovery thereafter could very well also unfold.   

The EUR/GBP pair extends its recovery to 0.8550 in the early American session on Thursday.

EUR/GBP rebounds from 0.8500 as ECB Lagarde sees the fight with inflation is not over yet.ECB Knot is not uncomfortable with market expectations for rate cuts.Investors await the UK Retail Sales data for fresh guidance. The EUR/GBP pair extends its recovery to 0.8550 in the early American session on Thursday. The cross recovered after discovering strong buying interest near the psychological support of 0.8500. The Euro strengthened against the Pound Sterling after commentary from ECB President Christine Lagarde raised doubts about whether the central bank will really pivot to rate cuts from the June meeting. On Wednesday, ECB Lagarde commented, “Growth in Europe is mediocre, much slower than in the US”. Lagarde warned that the fight against inflation is not over. Contrary to Lagarde, ECB Governing Council member Klaas Knot said in Thursday’s European session that he is not uncomfortable with the market pricing of ECB rate cuts. Knot added, “he is increasingly confident about the disinflation process.” Separately, ECB policymaker Joachim Nagel said that he can't rule out small rebounds in inflation in Germany in some months this year. Meanwhile, traders have reassessed speculation for rate cuts by the Bank of England (BoE) as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March softened at a slower rate than estimated. Investors see the BoE to reduce interest rates only once this year instead of three. Also, the BoE is anticipated to choose the November meeting for starting to reduce interest rates. Going forward, the Pound Sterling will be guided by the United Kingdom Retail Sales data for March, which will be published on Friday. The monthly Retail Sales are forecasted to have grown by 0.3% after remaining stagnant in February. EUR/GBP Overview Today last price 0.8557 Today Daily Change -0.0013 Today Daily Change % -0.15 Today daily open 0.857   Trends Daily SMA20 0.8563 Daily SMA50 0.8552 Daily SMA100 0.8575 Daily SMA200 0.8607   Levels Previous Daily High 0.8572 Previous Daily Low 0.8521 Previous Weekly High 0.8584 Previous Weekly Low 0.8528 Previous Monthly High 0.8602 Previous Monthly Low 0.8504 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 0.8553 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 0.8541 Daily Pivot Point S1 0.8537 Daily Pivot Point S2 0.8503 Daily Pivot Point S3 0.8486 Daily Pivot Point R1 0.8588 Daily Pivot Point R2 0.8606 Daily Pivot Point R3 0.8639    

Russia Central Bank Reserves $ up to $600.7B from previous $598.3B

US citizens that applied for unemployment insurance benefits increased by 212K in the week ending April 13 according to the US Department of Labor (DoL) on Thursday.

Initial Jobless Claims rose by 212K vs. the previous week.Continuing Jobless Claims rose by around 1.812M.US citizens that applied for unemployment insurance benefits increased by 212K in the week ending April 13 according to the US Department of Labor (DoL) on Thursday. The prints came in a tad below initial consensus (215K) and matched the previous weekly gain (212K revised from 211K). Further details of the publication revealed that the advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.2% and the 4-week moving average stood at 214.50, unchanged from the previous week's revised average. In addition, Continuing Claims increased by 2K to 1.812M in the week ended April 6. Market reaction The US Dollar Index (DXY) clings to its daily gains around the 106.00 neighbourhood in the wake of the release.

AUD/USD climbs about a tenth of a percent into the 0.6440s on Thursday, continuing the correction of the steep sell-off in the pair at the start of April.

AUD/USD recovers marginally after the recent steep sell-off. Both the Fed and RBA are expected to delay cutting interest rates now.This means the interest rate differential, a key driver of FX, is unlikely to widen as much as in other pairs. AUD/USD climbs about a tenth of a percent into the 0.6440s on Thursday, continuing the correction of the steep sell-off in the pair at the start of April.  As can be seen from the chart below, an overall bearish tone dominates price action after the new year-to-date low made on Tuesday at 0.6389.  AUD/USD Daily Chart 
  The most recent leg down, which started on April 10, was driven by a sudden strengthening in the US Dollar (USD).  A run of strong macroeconomic data from the US, a solid labor market and persistently high inflation means the US Federal Reserve (Fed) cannot go ahead and cut interest rates as soon as it had been planning.  The expectation of interest rates remaining higher for longer in the US in order to continue cooling down the economy, has supported the US Dollar because higher interest rates attract greater inflows of foreign capital.  The sell-off in AUD/USD was not as steep as in other Dollar pairs, however, because stubbornly high inflation in Australia means the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is also expected to delay cutting interest rates. It was less vocal about cutting them at the start of the year, however, unlike the Federal Reserve (Fed).  In Australia, a similar delay means the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is now not expected to lower the 4.35% overnight cash rate until November 2024.  “Markets currently price the RBA cash rate to be unchanged at the next meeting on 7 May, with a 60% chance of a cut by November,” said Westpac in a recent note.  There has been a surprising down shift in the number of cuts the RBA is expected to make in 2024 over the past month, which mirrors what has happened in the US with the Fed.  “The market is pricing in 90% odds of a 25 bp rate cut in 2024 vs. almost 50 bp of total easing that was seen earlier this month,” according to BBH.  The main macroeconomic data to come out of Australia over the last few sessions was the Australian Bureau of Statistics Labour Force Survey (LFS).  This showed employment down by 6.6k (from plus 117.6k in February), the Unemployment Rate rising to 3.8% (from 3.7%) and the Participation Rate at 66.6% (from 66.7%).  The data failed to move the dial with regards to the Aussie Dollar.  “It provided a slightly better read on the underlying state of labour market conditions over the opening quarter,” according to Westpac.  Even though the Unemployment Rate rose to 3.8%, it is still below the RBA’s estimated full employment range of 4.0% - 5.75%, so is unlikely to impact their policy decisions in the near term, and therefore the Australian Dollar.   

French central bank head and European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Villeroy de Galhau said on Thursday that they could cut rates in the next meeting, barring a major surprise, per Reuters.

French central bank head and European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Villeroy de Galhau said on Thursday that they could cut rates in the next meeting, barring a major surprise, per Reuters. Key takeaways "The risk would be to be behind the curve and to pay a too high cost bin terms of economic activity." "It is time to take an insurance against risk of being behind the curve. "After the first rate cut, we will monitor inflation data." "Inflation is coming back to target." "We are focused on domestic price stability." "The good news is we have avoided recession, though growth in Europe is insufficient." "When inflation is receding, it is time to go back to structural transformation." Market reactionThe EUR/USD pair inched slightly lower following these comments and was last seen losing 0.1% on the day at 1.0660.

The Diffusion Index for current general activity of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Manufacturing Survey rose sharply to 15.5 in April from 3.2 in March.

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index rose sharply in April.US Dollar Index trades modestly higher on the day near 106.00.The Diffusion Index for current general activity of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Manufacturing Survey rose sharply to 15.5 in April from 3.2 in March. This reading surpassed the market expectation of 1.5 by a wide margin.  The New Orders Index rose 7 points in April and the Current Shipments Index rose 8 points to 19.1. Meanwhile, the Prices Paid Index jumped from 3.7 in March to 23.0 in April, marking its highest reading since December 2023. "The survey’s indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments all rose. However, the employment index remained negative," the publication read. "Both price indexes continue to suggest overall price increases. Most future activity indicators declined but continue to suggest that firms expect growth over the next six months." Market reaction The US Dollar Index edged slightly higher after this data and was last seen rising 0.112% on the day at 105.98.

Canada Employment Insurance Beneficiaries Change (MoM) fell from previous 0.3% to 0% in February

In an interview with Bloomberg on Thursday, European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Klaas Knot said that he expects a "cautious slide" in key rates after June.

In an interview with Bloomberg on Thursday, European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member Klaas Knot said that he expects a "cautious slide" in key rates after June. Knot added that they can't rule out small rebounds in inflation in Germany in some months this year. Nevertheless, he noted that he is increasingly confident about the disinflation process and said that he is not uncomfortable with the market pricing of ECB rate cuts.  Market reactionEUR/USD showed no reaction to these comments and was last seen fluctuating in its narrow daily range above 1.0650.

United States Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey came in at 15.5, above forecasts (1.5) in April

United States Continuing Jobless Claims fell from previous 1.817M to 1.812M in April 5

United States Initial Jobless Claims came in at 212K below forecasts (215K) in April 12

United States Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average increased to 214.5K in April 12 from previous 214.25K

Oil prices retreat further on Thursday, extending the decline triggered on Wednesday after a string of headlines from the US President Joe Biden administration over tariffs and sanctions.

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On the tariff front, Biden called for higher fees on Chinese steel and aluminium. On the sanctions front, the US is set to reimpose sanctions on Venezuelan Oil and Gas while Washington considers adding sanctions on Iran’s Oil exports.  The US Dollar, meanwhile, is facing pressure from several central banks across the world that are seeing their currencies depreciate against the US Dollar. The strength of the US Dollar is an issue for central banks as it trickles back inflation. In Asia, even a coordinated intervention could take place should the US Dollar Index (DXY) rally any further with Japan and South Korea set to jointly intervene in markets. Crude Oil (WTI) trades at $81.80 and Brent Crude at $86.44 at the time of writing.Oil news and market movers: sanctions aheadRecent data shows that Iran is exporting the highest amount of Oil in more than six years, the Financial Times reports.  China is set to have a surplus of Oil production, expanding to 82m tons by 2030, according to Li Ran, a researcher at CNPC’s Economics & Technology Research Institute. This surplus would make up for any shortfall in the markets from OPEC and other suppliers. Leading Goldman Sachs Analyst Daan Struyven sees $90 as a ceiling for Brent Crude. The recent Crude Oil Inventories report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed that the Gulf Coast stockpiles are at their highest level in a year. Us Inventories grew by 2.74 million barrels, the highest since June 2023.Oil Technical Analysis: Easing for now with tail risk in mindOil prices are not rallying despite the current stance from the Biden administration with sanctions being slapped on Venezuela and are set to be issued for Iran, which should be rather supportive for Oil prices. On the production front, Iran is number 3 and Venezuela is number 9 on oil production volumes within OPEC. Sanctions on Iran thus might be having a heavier impact on prices than the ones for Venezuela, which means the Biden administration will probably sanction non-oil sectors in order to avoid disruptions in the global Oil supply.  With geopolitical tensions lingering, the $83.34 and  $90 handle should remain in grasp. One small barrier in the way is $89.64, the peak from October 20. In case of further escalating tensions in the Middle East, expect even $94 to become a possibility, and a fresh 18-month high could be on the cards.  On the downside, $80.63 is the next candidate as a pivotal supportive level. A touch softer, the convergence with the 55-day and the 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) at $79.88 and $79.57 should halt any further downturn. US WTI Crude Oil: Daily Chart WTI Oil FAQs What is WTI Oil? WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media. What factors drive the price of WTI Oil? Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa. How does inventory data impact the price of WTI Oil The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency. How does OPEC influence the price of WTI Oil? OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 13 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.  

USD/CAD is trading in the 1.3750s on Thursday, down roughly a tenth of a percent on the day as it continues to backtrack after the strong rally at the beginning of April.

USD/CAD has pulled back after rallying strongly at the start of April. US-Dollar strength drove the pair higher on the back of shifting monetary policy expectations.The Canadian Dollar weakened on the back of falling Oil prices, expected cuts to interest rates. USD/CAD is trading in the 1.3750s on Thursday, down roughly a tenth of a percent on the day as it continues to backtrack after the strong rally at the beginning of April.  April’s up move was driven mostly by the US Dollar taking off on a blend of higher-than-expected US inflation data, strong jobs data and uber-hawkish comments from the Chairman of the Federal Reserve (Fed) Jerome Powell.  In a speech on Tuesday Powell further stated he thought it would take more time to reach the Fed’s inflation target of 2%. “Given the strength of the labor market and progress on inflation so far, it is appropriate to allow restrictive policy further time to work and let the data and the evolving outlook guide us,” he said.  Expectations that interest rates in the US would be cut in June have now been almost totally scrapped in favor of September. Since higher interest rates attract greater inflows of foreign capital the delay has supported the Greenback.  The Canadian Dollar, meanwhile, has weakened on increasing expectations that the Bank of Canada (BoC) will cut interest rates in June. The markets are now pricing in a 70% probability of such a move, according to analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman (BBH).  Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Tiff Macklem highlighted a declining trend in Canadian inflation on Tuesday which supports the thesis that the BoC is getting ready to cut interest rates.  Macklem said, “there’s some downward momentum in underlying inflation,” and the data seems to back this view up with both core-trim and core-median measures of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) easing to 3.1% (the lowest since June 2021) and 2.8% (matching the July 2021 low), respectively, according to BBH.   Further, a bout of weakness in Oil prices has also weighed on CAD, since Oil is the country’s largest export. WTI Crude Oil has fallen 10% in April, from a peak of $87 a barrel on April 5 to $79 on April 18.  

The USD/CHF pair falls below the round-level support of 0.9100 in Thursday’s European session.

USD/CHF drops below 0.9100, dragged by a correction in the US Dollar.The US Dollar drops as traders reprice the interest rate outlook of other central banks.The SNB could cut interest rates further amid easing price pressures.The USD/CHF pair falls below the round-level support of 0.9100 in Thursday’s European session. The Swiss Franc asset comes under pressure as the US Dollar drops amid cheerful market mood. The US Dollar faces selling pressure after refreshing a five-month high. The US Dollar Index (DXY) drops to 105.85 as investors reassess speculation about rate cuts by other central banks from developed nations. Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell supported keeping interest rates higher for an extended period, with inflation remaining stubbornly higher in the first three months of this year, but policymakers from other central banks also turned cautious about premature rate cuts. This forced traders to price out early rate-cut bets by central banks, such as the Bank of England (BoE) and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). Meanwhile, the appeal for risk-perceived assets remains strong. S&P 500 futures have posted significant gains in the London session. 10-year US Treasury yields correct further to 4.57%. The US Dollar could regain bullish traction, knowing that the United States economy remains resilient due to strong economic growth, tight labor conditions and robust households’ spending. While other economies remain exposed to a technical recession. On the Swiss Franc front, investors could capitalize the corrective move to build fresh longs. In the near-term, the Swiss Franc is expected to face more downside as the Swiss National Bank (SNB) is expected to reduce interest rates further. Price pressures in the Swiss economy remain below the desired rate of 2%, offering relief to SNB policymakers to lower borrowing rates further. USD/CHF Overview Today last price 0.9086 Today Daily Change -0.0022 Today Daily Change % -0.24 Today daily open 0.9108   Trends Daily SMA20 0.9053 Daily SMA50 0.8909 Daily SMA100 0.8765 Daily SMA200 0.8829   Levels Previous Daily High 0.9133 Previous Daily Low 0.9094 Previous Weekly High 0.9148 Previous Weekly Low 0.9012 Previous Monthly High 0.9072 Previous Monthly Low 0.873 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 0.9109 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 0.9118 Daily Pivot Point S1 0.909 Daily Pivot Point S2 0.9072 Daily Pivot Point S3 0.9051 Daily Pivot Point R1 0.9129 Daily Pivot Point R2 0.915 Daily Pivot Point R3 0.9168    

The Mexican Peso (MXN) traces a flat line on most charts on Thursday, as traders digest the previous day’s gains prompted by comments from Banxico Deputy Governor Jonathan Heath.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Mexican Peso consolidates after strengthening temporarily on Banxico Heath’s comments. USD/MXN forms a bullish Pennant price pattern on the 4-hour chart. The economic growth outlook for Mexico gets downgraded. The Mexican Peso (MXN) traces a flat line on most charts on Thursday, as traders digest the previous day’s gains prompted by comments from Banxico Deputy Governor Jonathan Heath.  At its last meeting in March, Banxico decided to cut interest rates from 11.25% to 11.00%. However, Heath said that the bank would likely only make “fine adjustments” to interest rates going forward because stubbornly high inflation required them to remain elevated for some time yet. It was necessary to ensure that “the restrictive monetary stance remains at these levels for as long as necessary until we see progress on inflation,” said Heath in an interview with Banorte’s Podcast on Wednesday.  Since the maintenance of higher interest rates is positive for a currency, because it attracts greater inflows of foreign capital, the Mexican Peso appreciated on the news.  Mexican Peso trending lower in April The Mexican Peso has weakened overall in April despite Wednesday’s Heath-inspired recovery. This is mostly due to the Banxico cutting interest rates in March whilst the majority of major central banks continue to delay because of stubbornly high inflation.  The Peso may also have been hit by recent downgrades to growth forecasts for the Mexican economy from both the Banxico and the IMF.  “The forecast for Mexico is revised downward on account of weaker-than-expected outcomes for end-2023 and early 2024, with a contraction in manufacturing,” said the IMF in its latest World Economic Outlook report. The fall off in economic growth is being put down to lower government spending in 2025, in order to bring down the country’s budget deficit.  However, it’s difficult to see how a programme of radical budget cuts would work politically.  Mexico will hold a presidential election on June 2, when it will also vote in the 628 deputies of the national assembly. It’s likely to be a two-horse race between the leading center-left candidates’ Claudia Scheinbaum and Xochitl Gálvez, according to Columbia Threadneedle Investments.  “We believe that regardless of who wins the election, Mexico is bound for a similar fate as other countries in the region, where governability has weakened and policy proposals have stagnated,” says Columbia Threadneedle on the outcome.  Given both candidates are of the left and likely to lead a weak government, expectations for budget tightening seem a little exaggerated, given the lack of maneuver foreseen to make unpopular decisions.  Technical Analysis: USD/MXN forms bullish Pennant USD/MXN – the value of one US Dollar in Mexican Pesos – is consolidating in what could be a kind of bullish Pennant price pattern on the 4-hour chart.  The evolution of the Pennant suggests the likelihood of further upside if it breaks higher.  Given peaks and troughs are overall rising on the chart, the trend is likely bullish in the short-term, favoring long positions.  USD/MXN 4-hour Chart The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has pulled back out of overbought into neutral territory, releasing the potential for more upside.  Support from the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 16.82 is likely to put a line under further weakness.  A break above the peak of the Pennant at around 17.09 would indicate a continuation of the uptrend to the next target, possibly located at 17.17 where the 200-day SMA is situated, followed by resistance from a long-term trendline and resistance level at around 17.37. Mexican Peso FAQs What key factors drive the Mexican Peso? The Mexican Peso (MXN) is the most traded currency among its Latin American peers. Its value is broadly determined by the performance of the Mexican economy, the country’s central bank’s policy, the amount of foreign investment in the country and even the levels of remittances sent by Mexicans who live abroad, particularly in the United States. Geopolitical trends can also move MXN: for example, the process of nearshoring – or the decision by some firms to relocate manufacturing capacity and supply chains closer to their home countries – is also seen as a catalyst for the Mexican currency as the country is considered a key manufacturing hub in the American continent. Another catalyst for MXN is Oil prices as Mexico is a key exporter of the commodity. How do decisions of the Banxico impact the Mexican Peso? The main objective of Mexico’s central bank, also known as Banxico, is to maintain inflation at low and stable levels (at or close to its target of 3%, the midpoint in a tolerance band of between 2% and 4%). To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, Banxico will attempt to tame it by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for households and businesses to borrow money, thus cooling demand and the overall economy. Higher interest rates are generally positive for the Mexican Peso (MXN) as they lead to higher yields, making the country a more attractive place for investors. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken MXN. How does economic data influence the value of the Mexican Peso? Macroeconomic data releases are key to assess the state of the economy and can have an impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) valuation. A strong Mexican economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for MXN. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the Bank of Mexico (Banxico) to increase interest rates, particularly if this strength comes together with elevated inflation. However, if economic data is weak, MXN is likely to depreciate. How does broader risk sentiment impact the Mexican Peso? As an emerging-market currency, the Mexican Peso (MXN) tends to strive during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and thus are eager to engage with investments that carry a higher risk. Conversely, MXN tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.  

Analysts at TD Securities don't think that the latest employment data from Australia will bring the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) closer to lowering its policy rate.

Analysts at TD Securities don't think that the latest employment data from Australia will bring the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) closer to lowering its policy rate. Australian labour market remains tight with "Australian headline employment fell 6.6k in March, softer than the +10k consensus and TD's +18k f/c. Given the significant increase in jobs posted in February, a much larger giveback could have happened, so the 6.6k drop is not too bad." "Driving the negative print was the 34.5k drop in part time but full time rose 27.9k (this is strong) while there were upward revisions to headline and full time for February. Seasonally adjusted monthly hours worked rose by 0.9%. The participation rate dropped from 66.7% to 66.6%, helping to limit the back up in the unemployment rate from 3.7% to 3.8%." "Overall today's report supports the call that the Australian labour market remains tight with employment growth of 2.4% YoY, the employment-to-population ratio and participation rates still close to their November record highs. There is little in today's report to suggest the RBA is closer to cutting."

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the US Dollar against six major currencies, is facing issues with several parties screaming bloody murder on the stronger Greenback. This week, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde was the

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This week, European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde was the first to start mentioning that the ECB is concerned with the weaker Euro against the US Dollar (EUR/USD) and sees inflation trickling into the Eurozone on the back of that. Overnight, the message got picked up by the Bank of Japan (BoJ), where even an intervention could take place any time now.  Additionally, a joint statement was released overnight from the Finance Ministers of Japan and South Korea, addressing their weaker currencies to the US because of the Greenback’s recent outperformance. The substantial weaker Japanese Yen and Korean Won are causing issues for their central banks in their fight against inflation. The statement even mentions that a joint FX intervention could be needed in order to cool down current depreciations against the US Dollar, which would mean that the US Dollar Index could get slashed.  On the economic data front, the weekly Jobless Claims will be the main figures published on Thursday. Add three Fed speakers and the US Dollar could be trading either back above 106.00 or snap even 105.00 in case a perfect storm gets formed. Daily digest market movers: Jobless Claims to confirm Dollar exceptionalismAt 12:30 GMT: Weekly Jobless Claims data is set to be released: Initial Claims for the week ending April 12 are expected to increase to 215,000  from 211,000 seen a week before. Continuing Claims for the week ending April 5. The previous week's data was 1.817 million.  Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey for April is expected to decline to 1.5 from 3.2. At 14:00 GMT the Existing Home Sales data for March will be released. Figures are set to show a decrease to 4.20 million from 4.38 million in February. Three US Federal Reserve speakers on Thursday: At 13:05 GMT, Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman delivers opening remarks at the New York Fed Regional Conference. Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams will participate in a discussion at the Semafor World Economy Forum in Washington D.C. at 13:15 GMT.  Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic will make two appearances on Thursday. Near 15:00 GMT in a Q&A about the US economic outlook and again at 21:45 GMT. It seems to be a global attempt from equity markets to end this sell rally. They are green across the board, from Asian equities over Europe to US equity futures, on average gaining near 0.50% with no real outperformers. According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, expectations for a Fed pause in the May meeting are at 96%, while chances of a rate cut stand at 4%. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury Note trades around 4.58%, accelerating its retreat from Tuesday's high of 4.69%. US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Eye on the priceThe US Dollar Index (DXY) is facing a sudden pile-up of headlines that goes against any US Dollar strength. That some central banks around the globe are suddenly expressing their disfavour of the strong US Dollar is creating a bit of a knee jerk reaction, with traders taking their profits for now. In the longer run, towards June and the summer, the wider rate differential should still favor the Greenback and should see the DXY Index heading higher again.  On the upside, the fresh Tuesday’s high at 106.52 is the level to beat. Further up and above the 107.00 round level, the DXY Index could meet resistance at 107.35, the October 3 high.  On the downside, the first important level at 105.88, a pivotal level since March 2023, is being proved at the time of writing. Further down, 105.12 and 104.60 should also act as a support ahead of the region with both the 55-day and the 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) at 104.17 and 103.91, respectively. US Dollar FAQs What is the US Dollar? The US Dollar (USD) is the official currency of the United States of America, and the ‘de facto’ currency of a significant number of other countries where it is found in circulation alongside local notes. It is the most heavily traded currency in the world, accounting for over 88% of all global foreign exchange turnover, or an average of $6.6 trillion in transactions per day, according to data from 2022. Following the second world war, the USD took over from the British Pound as the world’s reserve currency. For most of its history, the US Dollar was backed by Gold, until the Bretton Woods Agreement in 1971 when the Gold Standard went away. How do the decisions of the Federal Reserve impact the US Dollar? The most important single factor impacting on the value of the US Dollar is monetary policy, which is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability (control inflation) and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these two goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, the Fed will raise rates, which helps the USD value. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates, which weighs on the Greenback. What is Quantitative Easing and how does it influence the US Dollar? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve can also print more Dollars and enact quantitative easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used when credit has dried up because banks will not lend to each other (out of the fear of counterparty default). It is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the necessary result. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice to combat the credit crunch that occurred during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy US government bonds predominantly from financial institutions. QE usually leads to a weaker US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening and how does it influence the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing in new purchases. It is usually positive for the US Dollar.  

Analysts at Rabobank share a brief outlook for the USD/JPY pair.

Analysts at Rabobank share a brief outlook for the USD/JPY pair. BoJ may be able to hike rates again later this year "Current USD strength is built around the expectation that Fed rates will stay stronger for longer. The greenback has also likely been boosted by safe-haven demand stemming from fears of an escalation of the Middle East crisis. Weaker US data and a reining in of concerns over the Middle East would both be useful in stemming USD strength." "That said, it is our central view that the USD will remain relatively firm. Alternatively, stronger Japanese economic data and a boost to expectations that the BoJ may be able to hike rates again later this year would lend the JPY some broad-based strength. Earlier today, comments from BoJ dove Noguchi indicated that he was in no rush to hike rates again. That said, assuming that Japanese real household incomes turn positive later this year, we see risk that another BoJ rate hike could follow. This, however, is unlikely for some months. In the meantime, there is strong risk of MoF intervention in an attempt to protect USD/JPY pushing through the 155 area."  

The USD/JPY pair recovered intraday losses and rebounds to 154.40 in Thursday’s European session.

USD/JPY finds buying interest near 154.00 as investors see Japan’s intervention mere a temporary solution to support weak Japanese Yen.Japan’s National CPI data will impact market expectations for BoJ’s rate hikes.The US Dollar corrects despite the Fed is expected to keep interest rates higher for a longer period.The USD/JPY pair recovered intraday losses and rebounds to 154.40 in Thursday’s European session. The asset finds buying interest as investors digest fears of potential Japan’s intervention in the FX domain to support the Japanese Yen from further declining. Japan’s Vice Finance Minister for International Affairs Masato Kanda said on Wednesday that authorities would not rule out any options in dealing with excessive yen moves, reported Reuters. Investors see Japan’s stealth intervention in the FX domain a temporary support to the Japanese Yen but this will not solve its fundamental problem. Lack of confidence among market participants over further policy tightening by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) amid doubts over wage growth spiral. Meanwhile, investors focus on Japan’s National Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March, which will be published on Friday. The inflation data will significantly influence speculation for the BoJ’s interest rate outlook. Japan’s annual headline CPI and measure excluding fresh foods are estimated to have softened to 2.7% from 2.8% in February. Easing price pressures would negatively impact market expectations for further policy-tightening by the BoJ.Market sentiment remains upbeat despite Israel's absence of immediate response to Iran’s attack on its territory. S&P 500 futures have posted significant gains in the European session. The US Dollar Index (DXY) corrects sharply to 105.85 despite investors seeing the Federal Reserve (Fed) delaying rate cuts to later this year. The CME FedWatch tool shows that traders have priced out rate cut expectations for June and July meetings and see the September meeting as the earliest time in which the Fed could begin lowering interest rates. USD/JPY Overview Today last price 154.42 Today Daily Change 0.03 Today Daily Change % 0.02 Today daily open 154.39   Trends Daily SMA20 152.23 Daily SMA50 150.67 Daily SMA100 148.01 Daily SMA200 147.5   Levels Previous Daily High 154.74 Previous Daily Low 154.16 Previous Weekly High 153.39 Previous Weekly Low 151.57 Previous Monthly High 151.97 Previous Monthly Low 146.48 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 154.38 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 154.52 Daily Pivot Point S1 154.12 Daily Pivot Point S2 153.86 Daily Pivot Point S3 153.55 Daily Pivot Point R1 154.7 Daily Pivot Point R2 155 Daily Pivot Point R3 155.27    

The Rabobank Research Team provided insights on Australia’s employment data for March and its implications on the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) interest rate outlook.

The Rabobank Research Team provided insights on Australia’s employment data for March and its implications on the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) interest rate outlook. Key quotes “Aussie labor market data released earlier today saw some mean-reversion in the headline employment figures.” “According to the ABS, Australia shed 6,600 jobs in March after gaining 117,600 in February.” “Rabobank had been expecting 10,000 jobs to be lost - which puts us equal closest to the pin amongst forecasters - but despite a 1-tick rise, the unemployment rate of 3.8% remained below our forecast (and below the market consensus) because of a fall in participation.” “All-in-all, it was another strong result for the Aussie labor market that does nothing for the view that Australia will be cutting rates imminently.”

Gold price (XAU/USD) rebounds to $2,380 in Thursday’s European session after posting losses on Wednesday.

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The precious metal holds gains amid fears that Middle East tensions could worsen and spread beyond Gaza if Israel responds brutally to Iran. According to The Times, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has clarified that “their state will do everything necessary to defend itself,” according to The Times. The comments from PM Netanyahu came after his conversation with foreign ministers from the United Kingdom and Germany. The recovery in Gold is also driven by a decline in US Treasury yields, which are influenced by the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate outlook. 10-year US bond yields edge down to 4.57% from a more than five-month high of 4.70%. Lower yields on interest-bearing assets diminish the cost of holding non-yielding assets such as Gold. Daily digest market movers: Gold price reverses Wednesday’s losses Gold price recovers majority of Wednesday’s losses and rises higher to $2,380 as investors remain worried about geopolitical tensions. Traders continue to gung-ho for Gold amid fears that Israel could retaliate to Iran’s attack on their territory in which the Iranian military launched hundreds of drones and missiles. A correction in the US Dollar also supports the precious metal. Five-day winning streak in the US Dollar has been halted as traders expect that other central banks from developed nations will also delay their rate cut plans due to persistent price pressures. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the US Dollar’s value against six major currencies, falls sharply to 105.75. Generally, the appeal of dollar-denominated Gold improves amid soft US Dollar. The near-term demand for the US Dollar remains firm as Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers see interest rates remaining higher for a longer period until they get convincing data that inflation will return sustainably to the desired rate of 2%.  On Tuesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said recent data has clearly not given policymakers confidence that they should start considering rate cuts. Instead, interest rates need to remain higher for longer than expected to gain that confidence. On Wednesday, Cleveland Fed Bank President Loretta Mester also argued for keeping the monetary policy framework restrictive. Mester remained optimistic that the Fed will eventually gain the confidence to lower interest rates and start normalising policy again, but that shouldn’t be done quickly. Technical Analysis: Gold price rebounds to $2,380Gold price advances to $2,380 in Thursday’s London session after edging down on Wednesday. The precious metal remains inside the $2,350-2,400 trading range from the last two trading sessions. The upside in the precious metal remains limited as momentum oscillators are cooling down after turning extremely overbought. The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart drops slightly after peaking around 85.00. The broader-term demand is intact as the RSI remains in the bullish range of 60.00-80.00.  On the downside, April 5 low near $2,268 and March 21 high at $2,223 will be major support areas for the Gold price. Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.  

Eurozone Construction Output w.d.a (YoY) down to -0.4% in February from previous 0.8%

Eurozone Construction Output s.a (MoM) up to 1.8% in February from previous 0.5%

Eurozone Construction Output s.a (MoM) up to 0.8% in February from previous 0.5%

Spain 10-y Obligaciones Auction rose from previous 3.19% to 3.251%

Spain 3-y Bond Auction up to 2.986% from previous 2.896%

Silver prices (XAG/USD) rose on Thursday, according to FXStreet data.

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Silver trades at $28.49 per troy ounce, up 1.03% from the $28.20 it cost on Wednesday. Silver prices have increased by 11.86% since the beginning of the year. Unit measure Today Price Silver price per troy ounce $28.49 Silver price per gram $0.92   The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of troy ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one troy ounce of Gold, stood at 83.54 on Thursday, down from 83.72 on Wednesday. Investors might use this ratio to determine the relative valuation of Gold and Silver. Some may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued – or Gold is overvalued – and might buy Silver or sell Gold accordingly. Conversely, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.  Global Market Movers: Comex Silver price makes another headway toward $29.00 Silver price extends its upside around $28.50 in Thursday’s early European session.  Rising industrial demand and ongoing tensions in the Middle East benefit the white metal.  ANZ commodity analysts said that Silver still has significant potential, even after hitting solid resistance at $29.90 last week. The higher chance that the Fed will delay its easing cycle might cap the upside of the ilver price. Fed Cleveland President Loretta Mester said on Wednesday that inflation is higher than anticipated and the Fed needs more confidence in its trajectory. Earlier this week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that he will wait for more evidence to gain confidence that inflation is headed toward the central bank’s 2% goal before lowering borrowing costs. (An automation tool was used in creating this post.)Silver FAQs Why do people invest in Silver? Silver is a precious metal highly traded among investors. It has been historically used as a store of value and a medium of exchange. Although less popular than Gold, traders may turn to Silver to diversify their investment portfolio, for its intrinsic value or as a potential hedge during high-inflation periods. Investors can buy physical Silver, in coins or in bars, or trade it through vehicles such as Exchange Traded Funds, which track its price on international markets. Which factors influence Silver prices? Silver prices can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can make Silver price escalate due to its safe-haven status, although to a lesser extent than Gold's. As a yieldless asset, Silver tends to rise with lower interest rates. Its moves also depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAG/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Silver at bay, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to propel prices up. Other factors such as investment demand, mining supply – Silver is much more abundant than Gold – and recycling rates can also affect prices. How does industrial demand affect Silver prices? Silver is widely used in industry, particularly in sectors such as electronics or solar energy, as it has one of the highest electric conductivity of all metals – more than Copper and Gold. A surge in demand can increase prices, while a decline tends to lower them. Dynamics in the US, Chinese and Indian economies can also contribute to price swings: for the US and particularly China, their big industrial sectors use Silver in various processes; in India, consumers’ demand for the precious metal for jewellery also plays a key role in setting prices. How do Silver prices react to Gold’s moves? Silver prices tend to follow Gold's moves. When Gold prices rise, Silver typically follows suit, as their status as safe-haven assets is similar. The Gold/Silver ratio, which shows the number of ounces of Silver needed to equal the value of one ounce of Gold, may help to determine the relative valuation between both metals. Some investors may consider a high ratio as an indicator that Silver is undervalued, or Gold is overvalued. On the contrary, a low ratio might suggest that Gold is undervalued relative to Silver.  

The Pound Sterling (GBP) extends its upside to 1.2480 in Thursday’s European session.

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The GBP/USD pair moves higher, driven by a steep correction in the US Dollar and rising expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will delay rate cuts until the November meeting. Like the Federal Reserve (Fed), the BoE is also expected to delay rate cuts, which has faded potential fears of policy divergence between them. The major catalyst that forced traders to pare BoE early rate cuts is the slow progress in inflation declining to the 2% target due to steady wage growth. The labor market report for the quarter ending February showed that Average Earnings including bonuses grew steadily by 5.6%, higher than expectations of 5.5%.  For inflation to return to the 2% target, the annual wage growth excluding bonuses should be close to 3.5%. Higher wage growth feeds inflationary pressures as businesses pass on labor cost to end consumers. Also, households with higher income for disposal ramp up overall demand in the economy. Daily digest market movers: Pound Sterling moves higher while US Dollar corrects The Pound Sterling rises to 1.2480 as persistence in the United Kingdom’s inflation data for March forced traders to price out expectations for the Bank of England pivoting to rate cuts in the September meeting.  Investors expect that the last mile for inflation to return to the 2% target will be bumpy. Currently, financial markets anticipate the BoE reducing interest rates only once this year in the November meeting.  The UK Inflation data released on Wednesday indicated that annual core CPI data, which strips off volatile food and energy prices, grew by 4.2% year-over-year in March, above the consensus of 4.1% but significantly decelerated from February’s reading of 4.5%. The core inflation data is the Bank of England’s preferred inflation measure for decision-making on interest rates.  A lower-than-expected decline in price pressures in March, combined with steady wage growth data for the three months ending February, forced traders to pare rate cut bets for the September meeting. After the release of the inflation data, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey said, “We’re pretty much on track for where we thought we would be in February on inflation. Bailey remains optimistic about a further drop in inflation next month. When asked about the impact of Middle East tensions, Bailey commented that the Oil price has not leaped as much as expected and the consequences of Middle East tensions are less than feared, reported FXStreet. https://www.fxstreet.com/news/boes-a-bailey-inflation-will-drop-strongly-in-the-next-month-202404171612 Apart from the revision in BoE rate cut prospects, the GBP/USD pair has benefitted from a slight correction in the US Dollar. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the US Dollar against six major currencies, fell sharply to 105.75 from a fresh five-month high of 106.40. The near-term demand for the US Dollar remains intact as Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers keep emphasising the need for interest rates to remain higher for a longer period until they get convinced that inflation will return sustainably to the 2% target. Technical Analysis: Pound Sterling eyes 1.2500The Pound Sterling aims for firm footing after discovering strong buying interest near the round-level support of 1.2400. The GBP/USD pair rebounds from 1.2400 and focuses on recapturing the psychological resistance of 1.2500.  The near-term outlook of the Cable remains bearish due to a breakdown of the Head and Shoulder pattern and a declining 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 1.2560. In addition, the 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) oscillates inside the bearish range of 20.00-40.00, suggesting momentum leaned to the downside. Pound Sterling FAQs What is the Pound Sterling? The Pound Sterling (GBP) is the oldest currency in the world (886 AD) and the official currency of the United Kingdom. It is the fourth most traded unit for foreign exchange (FX) in the world, accounting for 12% of all transactions, averaging $630 billion a day, according to 2022 data. Its key trading pairs are GBP/USD, aka ‘Cable’, which accounts for 11% of FX, GBP/JPY, or the ‘Dragon’ as it is known by traders (3%), and EUR/GBP (2%). The Pound Sterling is issued by the Bank of England (BoE). How do the decisions of the Bank of England impact on the Pound Sterling? The single most important factor influencing the value of the Pound Sterling is monetary policy decided by the Bank of England. The BoE bases its decisions on whether it has achieved its primary goal of “price stability” – a steady inflation rate of around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is the adjustment of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the BoE will try to rein it in by raising interest rates, making it more expensive for people and businesses to access credit. This is generally positive for GBP, as higher interest rates make the UK a more attractive place for global investors to park their money. When inflation falls too low it is a sign economic growth is slowing. In this scenario, the BoE will consider lowering interest rates to cheapen credit so businesses will borrow more to invest in growth-generating projects. How does economic data influence the value of the Pound? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact the value of the Pound Sterling. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, and employment can all influence the direction of the GBP. A strong economy is good for Sterling. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the BoE to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen GBP. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Pound Sterling is likely to fall. How does the Trade Balance impact the Pound? Another significant data release for the Pound Sterling is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought-after exports, its currency will benefit purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.  

Gold prices rose in India on Thursday, according to data from India's Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX).

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Gold price stood at 73,030 Indian Rupees (INR) per 10 grams, up INR 45 compared with the INR 72,985 it cost on Wednesday. As for futures contracts, Gold prices increased to INR 72,549 per 10 gms from INR 72,523 per 10 gms. Prices for Silver futures contracts increased to INR 83,519 per kg from INR 83,499 per kg. Major Indian city Gold Price Ahmedabad 75,550 Mumbai 75,400 New Delhi 75,380 Chennai 75,380 Kolkata 75,570   Global Market Movers: Comex Gold price resumes uptrend amid geopolitical risks Gold price appreciates as traders exercise caution amid concerns about escalating tensions in the Middle East. Jordan's Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi warned that Israeli retaliation against Iranian strikes could potentially escalate the conflict throughout the entire region. Furthermore, Israel's Air Force announced on Wednesday that its fighter jets had targeted Hezbollah infrastructure north of Baalbek in eastern Lebanon. The correction in the US Dollar, primarily influenced by subdued US Treasury yields and profit-taking, supports the demand for the USD-denominated yellow metal. Attention turns toward speeches from several US Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers, which could influence the market expectations for an interest rate cut, significanly affecting the non-interest-bearing Gold price.(An automation tool was used in creating this post.)Gold FAQs Why do people invest in Gold? Gold has played a key role in human’s history as it has been widely used as a store of value and medium of exchange. Currently, apart from its shine and usage for jewelry, the precious metal is widely seen as a safe-haven asset, meaning that it is considered a good investment during turbulent times. Gold is also widely seen as a hedge against inflation and against depreciating currencies as it doesn’t rely on any specific issuer or government. Who buys the most Gold? Central banks are the biggest Gold holders. In their aim to support their currencies in turbulent times, central banks tend to diversify their reserves and buy Gold to improve the perceived strength of the economy and the currency. High Gold reserves can be a source of trust for a country’s solvency. Central banks added 1,136 tonnes of Gold worth around $70 billion to their reserves in 2022, according to data from the World Gold Council. This is the highest yearly purchase since records began. Central banks from emerging economies such as China, India and Turkey are quickly increasing their Gold reserves. How is Gold correlated with other assets? Gold has an inverse correlation with the US Dollar and US Treasuries, which are both major reserve and safe-haven assets. When the Dollar depreciates, Gold tends to rise, enabling investors and central banks to diversify their assets in turbulent times. Gold is also inversely correlated with risk assets. A rally in the stock market tends to weaken Gold price, while sell-offs in riskier markets tend to favor the precious metal. What does the price of Gold depend on? The price can move due to a wide range of factors. Geopolitical instability or fears of a deep recession can quickly make Gold price escalate due to its safe-haven status. As a yield-less asset, Gold tends to rise with lower interest rates, while higher cost of money usually weighs down on the yellow metal. Still, most moves depend on how the US Dollar (USD) behaves as the asset is priced in dollars (XAU/USD). A strong Dollar tends to keep the price of Gold controlled, whereas a weaker Dollar is likely to push Gold prices up.  

EUR/USD is trading in the 1.0680s on Thursday, marginally higher on the day, building on the U-turn it began midweek after touching down at the 1.0601 lows of April.

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We’re clearly seeing timid signs of recovery.”  Lagarde’s comments contrast a little with those of some of her ECB colleagues who have said inflation is behaving as it should and tracking nicely lower. It introduces a smidgen of doubt into whether the ECB really will start cutting interest rates in June as markets believe. The maintenance of higher interest rates for longer is positive for the Euro as it attracts more inflows of foreign capital. Her remark about “Growth in Europe is mediocre,” echoes the view of Rabobank FX Strategists, who argue that whilst there is no risk of a “crisis” in the region, “ the combination of slow growth in the Eurozone and nagging budget pressures could lower the defenses of the EUR going forward." Rabobank suggests a fall to 1.0500 is probable, with risks tilted to the downside.  EUR/USD pressured by talk of rates for longer in the US EUR/USD plummeted at the start of April as bets the Federal Reserve (Fed) would cut interest rates in June quickly melted away amidst stickier-than-expected inflation and robust macroeconomic data.  On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said high interest rates would likely be around for longer than previously expected given the little progress being made on inflation in recent months.  The Fed’s Beige Book, a comprehensive economic survey, on Tuesday repeated the view that little progress had been made on inflation but added that growth and employment were a little stronger than expected. Everything points to the Fed maintaining interest rates at their relatively high (upper limit of 5.5% for the Fed Funds Rate) levels for a while until the behemoth of inflation is finally slain.  Indeed, The CME FedWatch tool, a market gauge of the probability of Fed rate cuts, is showing only a 16% probability of a cut in June (from over 70% only a few weeks ago) whilst the odds of a cut by September are now around 70%.    Technical Analysis: EUR/USD undertakes a youthful recovery EUR/USD has undergone a volte-face after hitting a floor at 1.0601 on Tuesday (circled). The question now, as most technical questions are, is whether this is a reversal or just a pullback in an ongoing downtrend? EUR/USD Daily ChartMomentum has been strong in the short span of the recovery so far, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved out of oversold, giving a buy signal – another good sign. However, it is too early to draw conclusions.  The intermediate-term downtrend is probably still in force and in the absence of further proof of a reversal, likely to resume and push the exchange rate lower again.  Resistance from previous swing lows nearby at around 1.0700 could act as an obstacle to the recovery and see a rotation back down. The level will, in any case, offer technical resistance and provide a rallying point for bears even if their cause is doomed.  A break below the 1.0601 April lows would post a lower low and indicate a continuation of the downtrend. After that, the next concrete target is at 1.0446, the October 2023 low. Euro FAQs What is the Euro? The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%). What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro? Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money. How does economic data influence the value of the Euro? Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy. How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro? Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.  

Eurozone Current Account n.s.a rose from previous €24.9B to €31.6B in February

Eurozone Current Account s.a below forecasts (€45.2B) in February: Actual (€29.5B)

NZD/USD continues to gain ground for the second consecutive day, hovering around 0.5930 during the early European session on Thursday.

NZD/USD extends gains as the US Dollar faces challenges on subdued Treasury yields.The latest inflation data from New Zealand offers the RBNZ greater flexibility to consider interest rate cuts.Fed’s Mester acknowledged that the central bank needs additional assurance before confirming the sustainability of 2% inflation.NZD/USD continues to gain ground for the second consecutive day, hovering around 0.5930 during the early European session on Thursday. The decline in the US Dollar (USD) contributes support for the NZD/USD pair, which could be attributed to the improved risk sentiment. On Wednesday, the report indicated that New Zealand's Consumer Price Index (CPI) has hit a nearly 3-year low, registering at 4% year-over-year in the first quarter. This situation provides the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) with more flexibility to contemplate interest rate cuts. Despite acknowledging persistent inflation in specific sectors, the RBNZ opted to maintain interest rates at 5.5% during its policy meeting last week. On the other side, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester acknowledged on Wednesday that inflation has exceeded expectations. Mester stressed that the Fed requires further assurance before confirming the sustainability of 2% inflation, as per a Reuters report. In addition, US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell commented on Tuesday that recent data indicates limited progress in inflation this year, suggesting an extended period before reaching the 2% target. This statement potentially signals a hawkish sentiment surrounding the Fed’s upcoming policy decision, which could provide support for the US Dollar, consequently, limiting the advance of the NZD/USD pair. On the data side, traders await the release of weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Existing Home Sales from the United States (US) on Thursday, which could provide further insight into the state of the US economy and potentially impact the direction of the Greenback. NZD/USD Overview Today last price 0.593 Today Daily Change 0.0014 Today Daily Change % 0.24 Today daily open 0.5916   Trends Daily SMA20 0.5985 Daily SMA50 0.6071 Daily SMA100 0.6129 Daily SMA200 0.606   Levels Previous Daily High 0.5926 Previous Daily Low 0.586 Previous Weekly High 0.6079 Previous Weekly Low 0.5933 Previous Monthly High 0.6218 Previous Monthly Low 0.5956 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 0.5901 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 0.5885 Daily Pivot Point S1 0.5876 Daily Pivot Point S2 0.5835 Daily Pivot Point S3 0.581 Daily Pivot Point R1 0.5941 Daily Pivot Point R2 0.5966 Daily Pivot Point R3 0.6007    

"If our updated assessment of the inflation outlook, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission were to further increase our confidence that inflation is converging to our target in a sustained manner, it would be appropriate to reduce the current level of monetary policy restriction," European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos said on Thursday, per Reuters.

"If our updated assessment of the inflation outlook, the dynamics of underlying inflation and the strength of monetary policy transmission were to further increase our confidence that inflation is converging to our target in a sustained manner, it would be appropriate to reduce the current level of monetary policy restriction," European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos said on Thursday, per Reuters. He noted that inflation has fallen further this year and that it's expected to continue to decline in the medium term, albeit at a slower pace. Market reactionEUR/USD showed no reaction to these comments and was last seen trading marginally higher on the day at 1.0680.

Here is what you need to know on Thursday, April 18: The US Dollar (USD) stays under modest selling pressure in the early European session on Thursday.

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The US economic calendar will offer weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey for April and Existing Home Sales data for March. Several Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers are scheduled to deliver speeches during the American trading hours. The USD Index stays in negative territory below 106.00 after touching its highest level since early November at 106.50 on Wednesday. Following a sharp decline midweek, the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield fluctuates below 4.6%. Meanwhile, US stock index futures trade in positive territory, reflecting an improving risk mood in the European morning. The US and the EU are expected to expand sanctions against Iran and markets seem to be optimistic about an avoidance of further escalation of the conflict between Iran and Israel. US Dollar price today The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar.  USDEURGBPCADAUDJPYNZDCHFUSD  -0.12% -0.08% -0.14% -0.07% -0.04% -0.16% -0.12%EUR0.11%   0.03% -0.02% 0.04% 0.08% -0.05% -0.05%GBP0.08% -0.03%   -0.06% 0.00% 0.05% -0.09% -0.06%CAD0.14% 0.02% 0.06%   0.07% 0.10% -0.03% 0.00%AUD0.07% -0.04% -0.01% -0.07%   0.04% -0.10% -0.07%JPY0.04% -0.07% -0.05% -0.12% -0.03%   -0.14% -0.10%NZD0.16% 0.06% 0.08% 0.03% 0.10% 0.14%   0.03%CHF0.13% 0.05% 0.03% -0.01% 0.04% 0.13% -0.04%   The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote).   During the Asian trading hours, the data from Australia showed that the Unemployment Rate edged higher to 3.8% in March from 3.7%, while the Employment Change came in at -6.6K, missing the market expectation for an increase of 7.2K. After snapping a three-day losing streak on Wednesday, AUD/USD stretched higher and was last seen trading in positive territory at around 0.6450.Australian Dollar holds position amid tepid US Dollar ahead of Fedspeak.USD/JPY staged a downward correction and closed in negative territory on Wednesday. The pair inched slightly lower in the Asian session and was last seen trading slightly above 154.00. National Consumer Price Index (CPI) data will be featured in the Japanese economic docket in the early hours of the Asian session on Friday.Gold fell nearly 1% on Wednesday but found support near $2,360. XAU/USD gathered bullish momentum early Thursday and recovered toward $2,380.EUR/USD rebounded decisively and gained 0.5% on Wednesday. The pair holds its ground early Thursday and trades slightly below 1.0700. Eurostat will publish Construction Output data for February later in the session. GBP/USD registered marginal gains on Wednesday and started to fluctuate in a narrow range above 1.2450 on Thursday. The UK's Office for National Statistics will release Retail Sales data for March in the early European session on Friday. Employment FAQs How do employment levels affect currencies? Labor market conditions are a key element to assess the health of an economy and thus a key driver for currency valuation. High employment, or low unemployment, has positive implications for consumer spending and thus economic growth, boosting the value of the local currency. Moreover, a very tight labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to fill open positions – can also have implications on inflation levels and thus monetary policy as low labor supply and high demand leads to higher wages. Why is wage growth important? The pace at which salaries are growing in an economy is key for policymakers. High wage growth means that households have more money to spend, usually leading to price increases in consumer goods. In contrast to more volatile sources of inflation such as energy prices, wage growth is seen as a key component of underlying and persisting inflation as salary increases are unlikely to be undone. Central banks around the world pay close attention to wage growth data when deciding on monetary policy. How much do central banks care about employment? The weight that each central bank assigns to labor market conditions depends on its objectives. Some central banks explicitly have mandates related to the labor market beyond controlling inflation levels. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), for example, has the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) sole mandate is to keep inflation under control. Still, and despite whatever mandates they have, labor market conditions are an important factor for policymakers given its significance as a gauge of the health of the economy and their direct relationship to inflation.  

Silver price (XAG/USD) gains momentum near $28.50 on Thursday during the early European session.

Silver price extends its upside around $28.50 in Thursday’s early European session. Rising industrial demand and ongoing tensions in the Middle East benefit the white metal. The higher chance that the Fed will delay its easing cycle might cap the upside of the silver price.Silver price (XAG/USD) gains momentum near $28.50 on Thursday during the early European session. The upsurge of the white metal is bolstered by rising industrial demand and safe-haven flows amid the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. 

The Silver Institute released its annual World Silver Survey on Wednesday, showing that industrial demand in the silver market is expected to hit another record high this year, climbing 9% to 710.9 million ounces. The rising demand is driven by silver demand for Photovoltaic (PV) solar panels. Furthermore, the ongoing tensions in the Middle East, particularly between Iran and Israel, might further fuel the demand for silver. ANZ commodity analysts said that silver still has significant potential, even after hitting solid resistance at $29.90 last week.

On the other hand, the growing speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will delay its easing cycle might cap the upside of silver price. Fed Cleveland President Loretta Mester said on Wednesday that inflation is higher than anticipated and the Fed needs more confidence in its trajectory. Earlier this week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that he will wait for more evidence to gain confidence that inflation is headed toward the central bank’s 2% goal before lowering borrowing costs. It’s worth noting that the higher-for-longer US rate narrative might dampen demand for white metal, a non-interest-bearing asset.  XAG/USD Overview Today last price 28.49 Today Daily Change 0.29 Today Daily Change % 1.03 Today daily open 28.2   Trends Daily SMA20 26.6 Daily SMA50 24.7 Daily SMA100 24.07 Daily SMA200 23.68   Levels Previous Daily High 28.8 Previous Daily Low 28.08 Previous Weekly High 29.8 Previous Weekly Low 26.88 Previous Monthly High 25.77 Previous Monthly Low 22.51 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 28.53 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 28.36 Daily Pivot Point S1 27.92 Daily Pivot Point S2 27.64 Daily Pivot Point S3 27.19 Daily Pivot Point R1 28.64 Daily Pivot Point R2 29.09 Daily Pivot Point R3 29.37    

People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) Deputy Governor said on Thursday that they “will keep the Yuan exchange rate basically stable.” Additional comments Recent improvements in China's economy will provide support Yuan exchange rate.

People’s Bank of China’s (PBOC) Deputy Governor said on Thursday that they “will keep the Yuan exchange rate basically stable.” Additional comments Recent improvements in China's economy will provide support Yuan exchange rate. Has confidence, conditions, ability to keep forex market stable. Will prevent the formation of one-sided expectations on Yuan. PBOC has set up credit market department.

The EUR/USD pair extends its recovery near 1.0688 on Thursday during the early European trading hours.

EUR/USD rebounds to 1.0688 amid the weaker US Dollar on Thursday. The bearish outlook of the pair remains intact below the key 100-period EMA. The first upside target is seen at 1.0700; the initial support level is located at 1.0622.The EUR/USD pair extends its recovery near 1.0688 on Thursday during the early European trading hours. The rebound of the major pair is backed by the selling pressure in the US Dollar Index (DXY) to 105.78. However, the upside of EUR/USD might be limited as the market expected the European Central Bank to cut the interest rate in June, which weighs on the Euro (EUR) against the Greenback. 

From a technical perspective, EUR/USD keeps the bearish vibe unchanged on the four-hour chart as the major pair is below the key 100-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA). However, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands in bullish territory around 55, suggesting that further upside cannot be ruled out. 

The first upside barrier of the major pair will emerge near the 50-period EMA and round figure at 1.0700. The additional upside filter to watch is the 100-period EMA at 1.0745. Further north, the next hurdle is seen near a low of March 22 and psychological level at 1.0800, en route to a high of April 9 at 1.0885. 

On the flip side, the initial support level for the major pair is located near a low of April 12 at 1.0622. The next contention level to watch is the 1.0595–1.0600 zone, indicating the lower limit of the Bollinger Band and round mark. Any follow-through selling below the latter will pave the way to a low of November 2 at 1.0565.EUR/USD four-hour chartEUR/USD Overview Today last price 1.0685 Today Daily Change 0.0012 Today Daily Change % 0.11 Today daily open 1.0673   Trends Daily SMA20 1.0776 Daily SMA50 1.0816 Daily SMA100 1.0857 Daily SMA200 1.0824   Levels Previous Daily High 1.068 Previous Daily Low 1.0606 Previous Weekly High 1.0885 Previous Weekly Low 1.0622 Previous Monthly High 1.0981 Previous Monthly Low 1.0768 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.0652 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.0634 Daily Pivot Point S1 1.0626 Daily Pivot Point S2 1.0579 Daily Pivot Point S3 1.0552 Daily Pivot Point R1 1.07 Daily Pivot Point R2 1.0727 Daily Pivot Point R3 1.0773        

FX option expiries for Apr 18 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.0625 610m 1.0635 618m 1.0640 498m 1.0650 909m 1.0700 910m - GBP/USD: GBP amounts 1.2390 716m 1.2400 445m 1.2450 706m - USD/JPY: USD amounts 153.00 6.1b 153.25 1.1b 153.80 980m 154.50 1b 155.00 896m - USD/CHF: USD amounts 0.9000 928m - AUD/USD: AUD amounts 0.6370 596m 0.6435 1.5b - USD/CAD: USD amounts 1.3750 993m NZD/USD: NZD amounts 0.5900 745m 0.5995 2.3b EUR/GBP: EUR amounts 0.8490 800m

FX option expiries for Apr 18 NY cut at 10:00 Eastern Time, via DTCC, can be found below - EUR/USD: EUR amounts 1.0625 610m 1.0635 618m 1.0640 498m 1.0650 909m 1.0700 910m - GBP/USD: GBP amounts      1.2390 716m 1.2400 445m 1.2450 706m - USD/JPY: USD amounts                      153.00 6.1b 153.25 1.1b 153.80 980m 154.50 1b 155.00 896m - USD/CHF: USD amounts      0.9000 928m - AUD/USD: AUD amounts 0.6370 596m 0.6435 1.5b - USD/CAD: USD amounts        1.3750 993m NZD/USD: NZD amounts 0.5900 745m 0.5995 2.3b EUR/GBP: EUR amounts         0.8490 800m 0.8535 400m 0.8650 786m

Switzerland Exports (MoM): 22111M (March) vs previous 22474M

Switzerland Imports (MoM) fell from previous 18812M to 18569M in March

Switzerland Trade Balance above expectations (3220M) in March: Actual (3542M)

USD/CAD extends its losses for the second consecutive session on Thursday, trading around 1.3750 during the Asian session.

USD/CAD loses ground due to the subdued US Dollar on Thursday.Lower US Treasury yields put pressure on the Greenback.The decline in the WTI price may limit the advance of the Canadian Dollar.USD/CAD extends its losses for the second consecutive session on Thursday, trading around 1.3750 during the Asian session. The pair follows the retreat from the five-month high of 1.3846 reached on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) loses ground, primarily influenced by subdued US Treasury yields. DXY falls to near 105.90 with the 2-year and 10-year yields on US Treasury bonds stand at 4.92% and 4.57%, respectively, by the press time. This decline in the US Dollar exerts pressure on the USD/CAD pair. The US Dollar faced challenges after the neutral remarks from the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) official. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman remarked on Wednesday that progress in inflation is slowing, with a potential stall. Bowman also noted that monetary policy is currently restrictive, and its adequacy will be evaluated over time. Furthermore, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester acknowledged that inflation has exceeded expectations. She emphasized that the Fed needs more assurance before confirming the sustainability of 2% inflation. On the flip side, the downward trend in crude Oil prices might constrain the Canadian Dollar's (CAD) upward momentum, considering Canada's status as the largest Oil exporter to the United States (US). West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil price dips to nearly $82.30 per barrel at the time of writing. Market concerns persist regarding demand for this year, particularly in light of indications suggesting the potential avoidance of a broader conflict in the Middle East. The advance of the Canadian Dollar could be short-lived due to the dovish sentiment surrounding the Bank of Canada (BoC), which could mitigate losses in the USD/CAD pair. There are expectations for a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut from the BoC in June. This sentiment is reinforced by the mixed Canadian inflation data released on Tuesday. USD/CAD Overview Today last price 1.3754 Today Daily Change -0.0019 Today Daily Change % -0.14 Today daily open 1.3773   Trends Daily SMA20 1.3621 Daily SMA50 1.3557 Daily SMA100 1.349 Daily SMA200 1.3523   Levels Previous Daily High 1.3838 Previous Daily Low 1.376 Previous Weekly High 1.3787 Previous Weekly Low 1.3547 Previous Monthly High 1.3614 Previous Monthly Low 1.342 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.3789 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.3808 Daily Pivot Point S1 1.3742 Daily Pivot Point S2 1.3712 Daily Pivot Point S3 1.3664 Daily Pivot Point R1 1.3821 Daily Pivot Point R2 1.3868 Daily Pivot Point R3 1.3899    

Bank of Japan (BoJ) board member Asahi Noguchi said on Thursday that the “main scenario is that future rate hikes are likely to be slow, but that depends on economic data.” Additional quotes Will take into account cost-driven inflation and policy adjustment if higher wages lead more to higher prices.

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Western Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $82.25 on Thursday.

WTI trades in negative territory for the third consecutive day near $82.25 on Thursday. A rise in US crude inventory and a higher possibility of delay rate cuts from the Fed drag the black gold lower. Oil traders will monitor the development surrounding Middle East geopolitical tensions. Western Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $82.25 on Thursday. The black gold edges lower on the day due to a rise in US crude inventory and the expectation of delay rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed). However, the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East might limit the black gold’s downside. 

US crude oil stocks rose for a fourth straight week. Crude oil stockpiles in the United States for the week ending April 12 rose by 2.735 million barrels from a build of 5.841 million barrels in the previous week. The market consensus estimated that stocks would increase by 1.6 million barrels, according to the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday. 

Furthermore, several Fed officials delivered hawkish comments, which provided support to the US Dollar (USD) and dragged the USD-denominated WTI prices lower. Late Wednesday, Fed Cleveland President Loretta Mester said that inflation is higher than expected and the central bank needs more confidence in its trajectory. Meanwhile, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that he will wait longer than previously expected to cut rates after unexpectedly upside inflation data, adding that the US central bank will likely take more time to gain confidence that inflation is headed toward the Fed’s 2% target before lowering borrowing costs.

The risk of escalation in the Middle East appears to be limited for the time being. However, oil traders will keep an eye on Israel, and their response, especially after US President Joe Biden urged restraint and after Iran said they do not intend to continue strikes. Wider conflict in the Middle East might disrupt the oil supply and lift WTI prices.  WTI US OIL Overview Today last price 82.28 Today Daily Change -0.04 Today Daily Change % -0.05 Today daily open 82.32   Trends Daily SMA20 83.75 Daily SMA50 80.38 Daily SMA100 76.82 Daily SMA200 79.54   Levels Previous Daily High 84.97 Previous Daily Low 82.01 Previous Weekly High 87.03 Previous Weekly Low 84.01 Previous Monthly High 83.05 Previous Monthly Low 76.5 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 83.14 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 83.84 Daily Pivot Point S1 81.23 Daily Pivot Point S2 80.15 Daily Pivot Point S3 78.28 Daily Pivot Point R1 84.19 Daily Pivot Point R2 86.06 Daily Pivot Point R3 87.14  






 

Netherlands, The Unemployment Rate s.a (3M) dipped from previous 3.7% to 3.6% in March

Japan Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) came in at 1.5%, above forecasts (0.8%) in February

Japan Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) came in at 1.6%, above forecasts (0.8%) in February

Gold price recovers its recent losses, trading around $2,370 per troy ounce during the Asian session on Thursday.

Gold price appreciates as traders exercise caution amid concerns about escalating tensions in the Middle East.Jordan's Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi warned that Israeli retaliation against Iranian strikes could potentially escalate the conflict throughout the entire region.The correction in the US Dollar supports the demand for the yellow metal.Gold price recovers its recent losses, trading around $2,370 per troy ounce during the Asian session on Thursday. The safe-haven yellow metal gains ground as traders exercise caution amidst heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. According to reports from Reuters, Jordan's Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi stated in an interview released by state media on Wednesday that Israeli retaliation against Iranian strikes could pose a significant risk of dragging the entire region into a devastating war. Furthermore, Israel's Air Force announced on Wednesday that its fighter jets had targeted Hezbollah infrastructure north of Baalbek in eastern Lebanon. Concerns are rising that increased exchanges of fire between Israel and Hezbollah could lead to further escalation. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel asserted that Israel would make its own decisions regarding how to defend itself, as Western countries urged restraint in responding to a series of attacks from Iran. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) loses ground, primarily influenced by subdued US Treasury yields. This correction in the US Dollar is to make Gold less expensive to buy for investors using other currencies. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester, speaking on Wednesday, acknowledged that inflation has surpassed expectations. She stated that the Fed requires further assurance before confirming the sustainability of 2% inflation. Additionally, Fed Chair Jerome Powell commented on Tuesday that recent data indicates limited progress in inflation this year, suggesting an extended period before reaching the 2% target. This statement potentially signals a hawkish stance on upcoming monetary decisions from the Fed. Higher interest rates could diminish the demand for non-yielding assets like Gold. XAU/USD Overview Today last price 2372.96 Today Daily Change 12.04 Today Daily Change % 0.51 Today daily open 2360.92   Trends Daily SMA20 2281.86 Daily SMA50 2159.7 Daily SMA100 2097.03 Daily SMA200 2016.22   Levels Previous Daily High 2395.63 Previous Daily Low 2354.7 Previous Weekly High 2431.61 Previous Weekly Low 2303.02 Previous Monthly High 2236.27 Previous Monthly Low 2039.12 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 2370.34 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 2379.99 Daily Pivot Point S1 2345.2 Daily Pivot Point S2 2329.49 Daily Pivot Point S3 2304.27 Daily Pivot Point R1 2386.13 Daily Pivot Point R2 2411.35 Daily Pivot Point R3 2427.06    

Indian Rupee (INR) recovers some lost ground on Thursday. The INR dropped to a record low on Wednesday, weighed by the worries that escalating tensions in the Middle East could disrupt supplies and boost oil prices.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}Indian Rupee trades on a stronger note on Thursday. Rising oil prices and higher expectations that the Fed will delay rate cuts weigh on the INR. Investors await the Initial Jobless Claims, Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, Existing Home Sales, and Fed speakers on Thursday. Indian Rupee (INR) recovers some lost ground on Thursday. The INR dropped to a record low on Wednesday, weighed by the worries that escalating tensions in the Middle East could disrupt supplies and boost oil prices. India is the third-largest consumer and importer of crude oil. Therefore, higher oil prices could damage the economy and put pressure on INR. Furthermore, the growing expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will delay rate cuts provide some support to the Greenback and create a tailwind for the USD/INR pair. However, the further upside of the pair might be limited due to the potential intervention from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to prevent local currency from depreciation.

Market participants will keep an eye on the usual weekly Initial Jobless Claims, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, and Existing Home Sales, due on Thursday. Also, the Fed’s Bowman, Williams, and Bostic are set to speak later in the day. On Friday, the RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Meeting Minutes will be released. Daily Digest Market Movers: Indian Rupee recovers amid RBI intervention possibilityRBI was likely selling Dollars via state-run banks on Tuesday to curb the INR’s losses spurred by a selloff in Asian equities and currencies, four traders told Reuters. Indian economy's growth momentum is expected to decelerate in 2024 to 6.5% against the 6.7% growth recorded in the previous year, according to the United Nations Trade and Development (UNCTAD). Fed Cleveland President Loretta Mester said that inflation is higher than expected, and the US Fed needs more confidence in its trajectory.  Fed Governor Michelle Bowman noted that inflation progress slows and possibly halts, adding that monetary policy is currently restrictive and that time will tell if it is "sufficiently" restrictive. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said that he will wait longer than previously expected to cut rates after unexpectedly upside inflation data. Powell added that the Fed will likely take more time to gain confidence that price growth is headed toward the Fed’s 2% target before lowering borrowing costs. Fed funds futures have priced in a 71% odds that the first rate cut could come in September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Technical analysis: USD/INR keeps the bullish vibe unchangedThe Indian Rupee trades firmer on the day. The positive outlook of USD/INR remains intact as the pair is above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the daily chart. The bullish momentum is also supported by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), which hovers around 59.00, supporting the buyers for the time being. 

An all-time high of 83.72 acts as an immediate resistance level of the pair. Any follow-through buying above this level will expose the 84.00 psychological barrier. On the downside, the initial support level is seen near a low of April 12 at 83.30. The crucial contention level to watch is the 83.00–83.10 region, portraying the round figure and the 100-day EMA. A breach of the mentioned level will pave the way to a low of March 14 at 82.80. US Dollar price todayThe table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the Australian Dollar.  USDEURGBPCADAUDJPYNZDCHFUSD  -0.09% -0.12% -0.12% -0.26% -0.10% -0.25% -0.08%EUR0.08%   -0.04% -0.03% -0.17% -0.02% -0.17% -0.03%GBP0.12% 0.02%   0.00% -0.10% 0.02% -0.14% 0.02%CAD0.12% 0.03% 0.00%   -0.14% 0.01% -0.14% 0.02%AUD0.23% 0.14% 0.11% 0.10%   0.13% -0.02% 0.14%JPY0.11% 0.02% -0.02% -0.03% -0.14%   -0.14% 0.01%NZD0.26% 0.17% 0.14% 0.14% 0.05% 0.15%   0.14%CHF0.12% 0.03% -0.02% -0.03% -0.15% 0.03% -0.15%   The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote). Indian Rupee FAQs What are the key factors driving the Indian Rupee? The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of India impact the Indian Rupee? The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference. What macroeconomic factors influence the value of the Indian Rupee? Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee. How does inflation impact the Indian Rupee? Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.  

Japan’s top currency diplomat Masato Kanda said on Thursday that the G7 statement reconfirmed commitment on forex on the back of the stance put forward by Japan.

Japan’s top currency diplomat Masato Kanda said on Thursday that the G7 statement reconfirmed commitment on forex on the back of the stance put forward by Japan. Additional comments Won't comment on forex levels. More to come … Related readsBoJ’s Noguchi: Focus now is on the pace at which the policy rate will be adjustedUSD/JPY remains below 154.50 amid weaker US Dollar 

The Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to gain ground on the second consecutive day on Thursday.

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The decline in the US Dollar (USD) contributes support for the AUD/USD pair. However, the mixed Australian employment data appears to exert downward pressure on the AUD. The Australian Dollar gains momentum as the ASX 200 Index continues to climb on Thursday. The domestic equity market is bolstered by gains in mining stocks, supported by firmer metals prices. This positive momentum persists despite US stocks extending losses overnight amidst concerns that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may delay rate cuts further into the future. The US Dollar Index (DXY) loses ground. primarily influenced by subdued US Treasury yields. This correction in the US Dollar is further reinforced by renewed selling pressure and an overall risk-on sentiment in the market. Investors watch for the release of weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Existing Home Sales later on Thursday, which could provide further insight into the state of the US economy and potentially impact the direction of the US Dollar. Daily Digest Market Movers: Australian Dollar extends gains amid mixed labor data Australia’s Employment Change posted a reading of -6.6K for March, against the expected 7.2K and 117.6K prior. Australia’s Unemployment Rate increased by 3.8% in March, lower than the expected 3.9% but higher than the previous reading of 3.7%. US President Joe Biden spoke at the heart of the American steel industry in Pittsburgh on Wednesday, emphasizing the need for increased pressure on the Chinese steel sector. He has directed US Trade Representative Katherine Tai to consider tripling the current 7.5% tariff rate on Chinese steel and aluminum, as reported by CBS News. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester, speaking on Wednesday, acknowledged that inflation has exceeded expectations, and the Fed needs further assurance before confirming the sustainability of 2% inflation. She also stated that monetary policy is well-positioned, with the possibility of a rate cut if labor market conditions worsen. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman commented on Wednesday that progress in inflation is slowing, with a potential stall. Bowman also noted that monetary policy is currently restrictive, and its sufficiency will be determined over time. The Federal Reserve's Beige Book survey of regional business contacts indicates that the US economy has "expanded slightly" since late February. Furthermore, firms reported facing increased challenges in passing on higher costs. US Building Permits (MoM) fell to 1.458 million in March, compared to the expected 1.514 million and 1.523 million prior. Housing Starts declined to 1.321 million MoM from 1.549 million, falling short of the expected 1.480 million. Technical Analysis: Australian Dollar hovers around the major level of 0.6450 The Australian Dollar traded around 0.6440 on Thursday. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests a bearish sentiment for the AUD/USD pair as it remains below the 50 level. Key resistance for the pair is anticipated at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of 0.6449, coinciding with the significant level of 0.6450. A breach above this level could strengthen the pair's momentum, potentially testing the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.6475, followed by the psychological barrier of 0.6500. On the downside, notable support is identified at the psychological level of 0.6400. A breach below this level might increase downward pressure on the AUD/USD pair, potentially leading it towards the major support level at 0.6350. AUD/USD: Daily ChartAustralian Dollar price in the last 7 days The table below shows the percentage change of the Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. The Australian Dollar was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.  USDEURGBPCADAUDJPYNZDCHFUSD  0.62% 0.59% 0.52% 0.91% 0.71% 0.86% -0.31%EUR-0.62%   -0.05% -0.10% 0.29% 0.05% 0.24% -0.93%GBP-0.59% 0.03%   -0.10% 0.33% 0.12% 0.24% -0.89%CAD-0.51% 0.10% 0.07%   0.42% 0.20% 0.35% -0.83%AUD-0.93% -0.31% -0.33% -0.40%   -0.09% -0.05% -1.22%JPY-0.75% -0.10% -0.13% -0.24% 0.22%   0.14% -1.02%NZD-0.90% -0.24% -0.28% -0.35% 0.05% -0.17%   -1.18%CHF0.29% 0.92% 0.89% 0.82% 1.22% 1.01% 1.16%   The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote). Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate, and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.  

Bank of Japan (BoJ) board member Asahi Noguchi said on Thursday that the “focus now is on the pace at which the policy rate will be adjusted and at what level it will eventually stabilize.” Additional quotes Long-term neutral interest rate is highly likely to be lower than that of other countries.

Bank of Japan (BoJ) board member Asahi Noguchi said on Thursday that the “focus now is on the pace at which the policy rate will be adjusted and at what level it will eventually stabilize.” Additional quotes Long-term neutral interest rate is highly likely to be lower than that of other countries. At some point in future, it's desirable to start shrinking BoJ’s balance sheet. Steps BoJ decided in march is a move toward this direction of future shrinking of BoJ's balance sheet. I dissented to BoJ’s March decision since I thought it would be appropriate to maintain JGB buying under negative rate. Rise in service prices not driven mainly by wage hikes yet. Japan's economy in moderate recovery trend but growth stalling recently.

Australia Part-Time Employment down to -34.5K in March from previous 38.3K

Australia Participation Rate fell from previous 66.7% to 66.6% in March

Australia Employment Change s.a. came in at -6.6K below forecasts (7.2K) in March

Australia National Australia Bank's Business Confidence (QoQ) increased to -2 in 1Q from previous -6

Australia Unemployment Rate s.a. below expectations (3.9%) in March: Actual (3.8%)

Australia Full-Time Employment dipped from previous 78.2K to 27.9K in March

USD/JPY extends its losses for the second successive session, trading around 154.30 during the Asian hours on Thursday.

USD/JPY continues to decline as the US Dollar correction exerts pressure on the pair.Japan's CPI data is scheduled to be released on Friday, expecting a moderation in consumer prices for March.US President Joe Biden calls for a tripling of tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminum.USD/JPY extends its losses for the second successive session, trading around 154.30 during the Asian hours on Thursday. The decline in the US Dollar (USD) exerts pressure on the USD/JPY pair. The Japanese Yen (JPY) might have received support from Japan's trade balance shifting to a surplus in March. Japan’s Merchandise Trade Balance Total improved to ¥366.5 billion surplus from the previous deficit of ¥377.8 billion. Additionally, the Japanese Yen could have strengthened due to safe-haven inflows, likely prompted by risk aversion amid heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. US President Joe Biden addressed the American steel industry hub in Pittsburgh on Wednesday, advocating for heightened pressure on the Chinese steel sector. He has urged US Trade Representative Katherine Tai to explore the possibility of tripling the existing 7.5% tariff rate on Chinese steel and aluminum, according to CBS News. This development could potentially benefit the Japanese market and provide support for the Japanese Yen (JPY). Traders anticipate the release of Japan's National Consumer Price Index (CPI) data by the Statistics Bureau of Japan on Friday, with market expectations leaning towards a moderation in consumer prices for March. On the other hand, the expectation of the Federal Reserve (Fed) maintaining elevated interest rates for an extended period, supported by a robust US economy and persistent inflation, serves as a counterbalance to the downward pressure on the USD/JPY pair.Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester addressed on Wednesday, noting that inflation surpasses expectations and that the Fed requires more assurance before confirming the sustainability of 2% inflation. She added that monetary policy is well-positioned, with a potential rate cut if labor market conditions deteriorate. Additionally, Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Michelle Bowman remarked that progress in inflation is slowing, potentially stalling altogether. Bowman also mentioned that monetary policy is presently restrictive, and time will determine if it is adequately so. USD/JPY Overview Today last price 154.28 Today Daily Change -0.11 Today Daily Change % -0.07 Today daily open 154.39   Trends Daily SMA20 152.23 Daily SMA50 150.67 Daily SMA100 148.01 Daily SMA200 147.5   Levels Previous Daily High 154.74 Previous Daily Low 154.16 Previous Weekly High 153.39 Previous Weekly Low 151.57 Previous Monthly High 151.97 Previous Monthly Low 146.48 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 154.38 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 154.52 Daily Pivot Point S1 154.12 Daily Pivot Point S2 153.86 Daily Pivot Point S3 153.55 Daily Pivot Point R1 154.7 Daily Pivot Point R2 155 Daily Pivot Point R3 155.27    

The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Tuesday at 7.1020 as compared to the previous day's of 7.1025 and 7.2281 Reuters estimates.

The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) set the USD/CNY central rate for the trading session ahead on Tuesday at 7.1020 as compared to the previous day's of 7.1025 and 7.2281 Reuters estimates.

The GBP/USD pair trades on a softer note around 1.2450 during the early Asian trading hours on Thursday.

GBP/USD edges lower to 1.2450 in Thursday’s early Asian session. Further easing in UK inflation data prompted the expectation that the BoE will start lowering interest rates this year. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said he will wait longer than previously expected to cut rates after unexpectedly upside inflation readings.The GBP/USD pair trades on a softer note around 1.2450 during the early Asian trading hours on Thursday. The softer UK inflation data prompted the expectation that the Bank of England (BoE) will start lowering interest rates in the coming months, which weighs on the Pound Sterling (GBP) against the Greenback. Investors will take more cues from the US weekly Initial Jobless Claims, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, the CB Leading Index, and Existing Home Sales, due on Thursday. 

The BoE hinted that the UK is still on course for an interest rate cut, as recent data showed a further easing in the pace of price growth in the economy. On Wednesday, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed that the UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation dropped to 3.2% in the 12 months to March, the softest level for two-and-a-half years. The figure was down from the previous reading of 3.4%. However, investors expect the first rate cut in August or September, according to the LSEG data. 

On the USD’s front, the upbeat February's Retail Sales earlier this week suggested a robust economy in the United States. The report triggered speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might delay its easing cycle this year. The Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that he will wait longer than previously expected to cut rates after unexpectedly upside inflation readings. Powell added that the US central bank will likely take more time to gain confidence that price growth is headed toward the Fed’s 2% target before lowering borrowing costs. This, in turn, provides some support to the Greenback and caps the upside of the GBP/USD pair.  GBP/USD Overview Today last price 1.2451 Today Daily Change -0.0003 Today Daily Change % -0.02 Today daily open 1.2454   Trends Daily SMA20 1.2584 Daily SMA50 1.2647 Daily SMA100 1.2662 Daily SMA200 1.2576   Levels Previous Daily High 1.2482 Previous Daily Low 1.2417 Previous Weekly High 1.2709 Previous Weekly Low 1.2427 Previous Monthly High 1.2894 Previous Monthly Low 1.2575 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.2457 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.2442 Daily Pivot Point S1 1.242 Daily Pivot Point S2 1.2386 Daily Pivot Point S3 1.2355 Daily Pivot Point R1 1.2485 Daily Pivot Point R2 1.2516 Daily Pivot Point R3 1.255    

Japan Foreign Investment in Japan Stocks declined to ¥1740B in April 12 from previous ¥1764.4B

Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Michelle Bowman said Wednesday that inflation progress slows and possibly halts.

.fxs-faq-module-wrapper{border:1px solid #dddedf;background:#fff;margin-bottom:32px;width:100%;float:left;font-family:Roboto,sans-serif}.fxs-faq-module-title{color:#1b1c23;font-size:16px;font-style:italic;font-weight:700;line-height:22.4px;text-transform:uppercase;background:#f3f3f8;padding:8px 16px;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-container{padding:16px;width:100%;box-sizing:border-box;display:flex;flex-direction:column;gap:12px}.fxs-faq-module-section{padding-bottom:16px;border-bottom:1px solid #ececf1;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-section:last-child{border:none;margin-bottom:0}.fxs-faq-module-container input[type=checkbox]{display:none}.fxs-faq-module-header{padding:4px 0;background-color:#fff;border:none;position:relative;cursor:pointer;margin:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label{display:block;cursor:pointer}.fxs-faq-module-header label span{display:block;width:calc(100% - 50px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{content:"";position:absolute;top:50%;right:16px;width:8px;height:2px;background-color:#49494f;transition:all .2s ease-in-out;transition-delay:0}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(4px)}.fxs-faq-module-header label:after,.fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transition:transform .3s ease-in-out}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:after{transform:rotate(45deg) translateX(4px)}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-header label:before{transform:rotate(-45deg) translateX(-4px)}.fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:0;overflow:hidden;transition:all .3s ease-in-out;color:#49494f;font-weight:300;padding:0;font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px;margin:0}input[type=checkbox]:checked+.fxs-faq-module-section .fxs-faq-module-content{max-height:1000px;margin-top:8px}@media (min-width:680px){.fxs-faq-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-faq-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-faq-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}} Federal Reserve (Fed) Governor Michelle Bowman said Wednesday that inflation progress slows and possibly halts. Bowman further stated that monetary policy is currently restrictive and time will tell if it is "sufficiently" restrictive.Key quotes“Inflation progress slows and possibly halts.”

“Strength of consumer spending tied to ongoing job growth.”

“Monetary policy currently restrictive; time will tell if it is "sufficiently" restrictive.”

“Consumers are turning to cheaper goods, but still spending heavily on travel for eclipse viewing.”Market reactionThe US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading 0.01% higher on the day at 105.95, as of writing. Fed FAQs What does the Federal Reserve do, how does it impact the US Dollar? Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback. How often does the Fed hold monetary policy meetings? The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it impact USD? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening (QT) and how does it impact the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.  

The EUR/USD pair edges higher to 1.0672 on Thursday during the early Asian session.

EUR/USD posts modest gains near 1.0672 on the softer USD on Thursday. Fed’s Powell said the central bank might take longer than expected to achieve the 2% target.ECB policymaker said a rate cut looks increasingly likely in its June meeting. The EUR/USD pair edges higher to 1.0672 on Thursday during the early Asian session. The recovery of that major pair is bolstered by renewed selling pressure in the US Dollar (USD) and a risk-friendly environment. Investors will monitor the usual weekly Initial Jobless Claims, the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, the CB Leading Index, and Existing Home Sales, due later on Thursday. 

The Federal Reserve's (Fed) rate cut hopes were faded. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell commented on Tuesday that the recent data have clearly not given Fed greater confidence and indicate that it's likely to take longer than expected to achieve the central bank's 2% target. The hawkish comments from the Fed’s Powell might provide some support to the Greenback and cap the upside of the EUR/USD in the near term. Investors see a nearly 71% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates in September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

On the other hand, investors increase their bets that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut the interest rate in June. The ECB policymaker Joachim Nagel said on Wednesday that a rate cut looks increasingly likely for June, but certain parts of the incoming inflation data still look higher than desired. Meanwhile, ECB policymaker Bostjan Vasle said that the deposit rate should be lower to 3% by the end of the year from a record high of 4% currently if disinflation continues as expected. Interest rate differentials have been a primary driver of the major pair. The dovish stance from the ECB drags the Euro (EUR) lower and creates a headwind for the EUR/USD pair.   EUR/USD Overview Today last price 1.0672 Today Daily Change 0.0053 Today Daily Change % 0.50 Today daily open 1.0619   Trends Daily SMA20 1.0788 Daily SMA50 1.0818 Daily SMA100 1.086 Daily SMA200 1.0826   Levels Previous Daily High 1.0654 Previous Daily Low 1.0601 Previous Weekly High 1.0885 Previous Weekly Low 1.0622 Previous Monthly High 1.0981 Previous Monthly Low 1.0768 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.0621 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.0634 Daily Pivot Point S1 1.0595 Daily Pivot Point S2 1.0572 Daily Pivot Point S3 1.0543 Daily Pivot Point R1 1.0648 Daily Pivot Point R2 1.0677 Daily Pivot Point R3 1.07  



 

The GBP/JPY consolidates at around current exchange rates, unable to break above/below the 191.60/192.80 range, following an inflation report in the UK that sparked a rally in the GBP/USD pair.

GBP/JPY remains confined between 191.60 and 192.80, unable to break through key resistance at 193.00.Technical analysis highlights potential decline towards strong support at 190.00, with key indicators aligning.Immediate technical supports to watch include the Tenkan-Sen at 191.46 and the Kijun-Sen at 191.06.The GBP/JPY consolidates at around current exchange rates, unable to break above/below the 191.60/192.80 range, following an inflation report in the UK that sparked a rally in the GBP/USD pair. Therefore, after finishing Wednesday's session around familiar levels, the cross-currency pair trades at 192.22, virtually unchanged. GBP/JPY Price Analysis: Technical outlook The daily chart shows the pair has peaked, as buyers remained unable to crack the 193.00 figure to challenge the year-to-date (YTD) high of 193.53. That opened the door for a dip toward the 190.00 mark, a strong support level, as key technical indicators converged around that area. The April 2 low of 190.03, the 50-day moving average (DMA), and the top of the Ichimoku Cloud (Kumo). Since then, the GBP/JPY remains subdued. The first resistance would be 193.00, followed by the YTD high. On the flip side, the first support would be 190.00, followed by key support levels. Up next would be the Tenkan-Sen at 191.46, the Senkou Span A at 191.26, and the Kijun-Sen at 191.06. GBP/JPY Price Action – Daily ChartGBP/JPY Overview Today last price 192.17 Today Daily Change -0.09 Today Daily Change % -0.05 Today daily open 192.26   Trends Daily SMA20 191.61 Daily SMA50 190.42 Daily SMA100 187.34 Daily SMA200 185.39   Levels Previous Daily High 192.82 Previous Daily Low 191.65 Previous Weekly High 193.02 Previous Weekly Low 190 Previous Monthly High 193.54 Previous Monthly Low 187.96 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 192.37 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 192.1 Daily Pivot Point S1 191.67 Daily Pivot Point S2 191.08 Daily Pivot Point S3 190.51 Daily Pivot Point R1 192.84 Daily Pivot Point R2 193.41 Daily Pivot Point R3 194    

The European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker Bostjan Vasle said on Wednesday that the deposit rate should be "much closer" to 3% by the end of the year from a record high of 4% currently if disinflation continues as expected.

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 "Some worrying developments in the Middle East.” Market reactionThese comments have little to no market reaction to the Euro. The EUR/USD pair is trading at 1.0672, unchanged on the day. ECB FAQs What is the ECB and how does it influence the Euro? The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region. The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Euro? In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro. QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic. What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Euro? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.  

Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester spoke on "An update from the Federal Reserve” on Thursday.

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“Inflation slightly higher than anticipated this year.”

“Confidence needed that inflation is decreasing.”

“Strong labor markets, solid economic growth.”

“Watching and gathering more information before taking action.”

“Monetary policy well-positioned.”

“Possible rate cut if labor markets worsen.”

“Anticipates a shift to eased policy.”

“Watching risks to both mandates.”Market reactionThe US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading 0.02% lower on the day  at 105.92, as of writing. Fed FAQs What does the Federal Reserve do, how does it impact the US Dollar? Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates. When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money. When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback. How often does the Fed hold monetary policy meetings? The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions. The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it impact USD? In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system. It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar. What is Quantitative Tightening (QT) and how does it impact the US Dollar? Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.  
The RSI on the daily chart lies deep in negative terrain but recovered.The hourly RSI paints a growing buying momentum, trending the positive territory.The MACD on both charts signals a less intense selling momentum.The NZD/USD stands recovered to 0.5919, it seeing 0.60% gains. The dominant sentiment remains bearish, subtly dominated by sellers due to the consistent positioning beneath key Simple Moving Averages (SMAs). However, indicators on the daily and hourly charts seem to be recovering. On the daily chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) demonstrates a negative sentiment as it continues an under-50 trend. Although there was a slight uptick from the recent low point seen on Monday, the RSI remains in deep in negative territory. Moreover, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) displays falling red bars, reinforcing a weakening bearish momentum. NZD/USD daily chart The hourly chart presents an interesting contrast. Here, recent RSI readings consistently float above 50, marking a positive territory. The latest reading is 57, revealing that buyers are taking the reins on the hourly scale. The MACD histogram echoes the buying momentum printing rising green bars. NZD/USD hourly chart Upon examining the long-term trend, it becomes apparent that the NZD/USD exhibits bearish momentum as it slots below the 20-day, 100-day, and 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) indicators. So any movements which keeps the pair beneath these levels shouldn't be considered as a clear buying signal. NZD/USD Overview Today last price 0.5917 Today Daily Change 0.0037 Today Daily Change % 0.63 Today daily open 0.588   Trends Daily SMA20 0.5993 Daily SMA50 0.6075 Daily SMA100 0.6132 Daily SMA200 0.6062   Levels Previous Daily High 0.5908 Previous Daily Low 0.5868 Previous Weekly High 0.6079 Previous Weekly Low 0.5933 Previous Monthly High 0.6218 Previous Monthly Low 0.5956 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 0.5884 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 0.5893 Daily Pivot Point S1 0.5863 Daily Pivot Point S2 0.5846 Daily Pivot Point S3 0.5823 Daily Pivot Point R1 0.5902 Daily Pivot Point R2 0.5925 Daily Pivot Point R3 0.5942    

Australia will publish its monthly employment report first thing Thursday.

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(min-width:680px){.fxs-event-module-inner-calendar .fxs-event-module-header{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-release p{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-read-more{font-size:14.72px;line-height:20px}.fxs-event-module-calendar-title{font-size:22.4px;line-height:25.6px}.fxs-event-module-title{font-size:19.2px;line-height:27.2px}.fxs-event-module-header{font-size:19.2px;line-height:25.92px}.fxs-event-module-content{font-size:16px;line-height:21.6px}}The Australian Unemployment Rate is expected to have ticked higher in March.Employment Change is foreseen losing momentum after the outstanding February figure.AUD/USD corrective advance may provide bears the chance to sell at higher levels.Australia will publish its monthly employment report first thing Thursday. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) is expected to announce the country added measly 7.2K new positions in March after the outstanding 116.5K jobs created in February. The Unemployment Rate is foreseen at 3.9% after dropping to a six-month low of 3.7% in the previous month. In February, the trend unemployment rate remained at 3.8% for the sixth month in a row. Australia reports the monthly Employment Change split into full-time and part-time positions. Generally speaking, full-time jobs imply working 38 hours per week or more and usually include additional benefits, but they mostly represent consistent income. On the other hand, part-time employment generally means higher hourly rates but lacks consistency and benefits. That’s why the economy prefers full-time jobs. Scrutinizing the impressive February headline, Australia created 38.3K part-time roles and added a whopping 78.2K full-time ones. “The large increase in employment in February followed larger-than-usual numbers of people in December and January who had a job that they were waiting to start or to return to. This translated into a larger-than-usual flow of people into employment in February and even more so than February last year,” according to the official ABS report.  Australian unemployment rate expected to bounce back in March Market analysts anticipate the Australian Unemployment Rate increased to 3.9% in March after declining to 3.7% in February. As mentioned before, the country is expected to have added 7.2K new jobs following 116.5K positions added in February. The labor sector in Australia has remained relatively strong over the past few months, although, opposite to other major counterparts, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) does not seem to care about whether the job market remains tight.  As widely anticipated, the RBA kept its policy rate unchanged for the third straight meeting at 4.35% when it met in March. For a change, policymakers scrapped any reference to possible further increases, pushing AUD/USD lower.  “If our forecasts come true, and I really hope we’re on that narrow path that Phil (Lowe - former RBA Governor) used to talk about, then we can slow the economy enough that it preserves a lot of the gains in employment and brings inflation down,” Governor Michele Bullock noted, following the central bank meeting. The Board is hopeful they will head into a soft landing as long as inflation remains subdued.  The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) publishes the Consumer Price Index (CPI) quarterly. According to the latest release, the CPI rose 0.6% in the last quarter of 2023 and 4.1% in the 12 months to December 2023. The RBA’s inflation goal is between 2% and 3%. It is worth mentioning that wage growth is reported separately. The ABS also offers a quarterly report, with the latest showing the seasonally adjusted Wage Price Index (WPI) rose 0.9% in the last quarter of 2023 and 4.2% over the year.  At this point, wage growth continues to outstrip inflation, but it's not something to care about today.   When will the Australian employment report be released, and how could it affect AUD/USD? The ABS will publish the February employment report on Thursday. As previously stated, Australia is expected to have created 7.2K new jobs in March, while the Unemployment Rate is foreseen at 3.9%. The Participation Rate was reported at 66.7% in February. The tepid job creation and the modest uptick in the Unemployment Rate should not be a problem for the RBA. A much stronger than-anticipated report, however, may be read as a delay in rate cuts. The market isn’t rushing to bet on it, which means the Aussie will likely take advantage against the US Dollar in such a scenario.  A poor outcome on the contrary, and given broad USD strength, AUD/USD may fall to fresh 2024 lows. From a technical perspective, Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, notes: “The AUD/USD pair set a fresh 2024 low on Tuesday at 0.6388, as broad US Dollar demand in a risk-averse environment dominates financial boards. The pair is up ahead of the announcement, but the advance seems corrective. Speculative interest is adjusting rate-cut expectations while digesting the latest Middle East developments. The modest improvement in sentiment is short of confirming fears are gone, which means the case for a lower low is alive and kicking.”  Bednarik adds: “AUD/USD is bearish, given that it is developing below all its moving averages in the daily chart. The 20 Simple Moving Average (SMA) heads firmly south below the 100 and 200 SMAs and over 100 pips above the current level, reflecting bears’ strength. Technical indicators recovered modestly from oversold readings but lack momentum enough to confirm an interim bottom. AUD/USD has near-term support at 0.6410, followed by the aforementioned 2024 low. Once below the latter, the slide could extend initially towards 0.6350, en route to 0.6315. On the contrary, immediate resistance can be found at 0.6470, followed by the 0.6530 pierce zone. It is worth adding that, once the dust settles and in the case of a bullish run, sellers may take their chances to keep the pair in the bearish path.” Australian Dollar FAQs What key factors drive the Australian Dollar? One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD. How do the decisions of the Reserve Bank of Australia impact the Australian Dollar? The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive. How does the health of the Chinese Economy impact the Australian Dollar? China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs. How does the price of Iron Ore impact the Australian Dollar? Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD. How does the Trade Balance impact the Australian Dollar? The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative. Economic Indicator Unemployment Rate s.a. The Unemployment Rate, released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labor force, expressed as a percentage. If the rate increases, it indicates a lack of expansion within the Australian labor market and a weakness within the Australian economy. A decrease in the figure is seen as bullish for the Australian Dollar (AUD), while an increase is seen as bearish. Read more. Next release: Thu Apr 18, 2024 01:30 Frequency: MonthlyConsensus: 3.9%Previous: 3.7%Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics Why it matters to traders? The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) publishes an overview of trends in the Australian labour market, with unemployment rate a closely watched indicator. It is released about 15 days after the month end and throws light on the overall economic conditions, as it is highly correlated to consumer spending and inflation. Despite the lagging nature of the indicator, it affects the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) interest rate decisions, in turn, moving the Australian dollar. Upbeat figure tends to be AUD positive.  

Silver’s prices remain in positive territory but continued to register higher tails in the daily chart, signaling buyers' failure to commit to higher prices above the May 18, 2021, high of $28.74.

Silver edges higher, showing resilience with a 0.50% gain, yet faces tough resistance near $28.74.Technical analysis suggests potential pullback risks with $28.00 as a pivotal level; further support at $27.59 and $27.00.Upside momentum could resume if prices surpass $28.28, targeting higher resistance points at $28.74 and potentially $29.00.Silver’s prices remain in positive territory but continued to register higher tails in the daily chart, signaling buyers' failure to commit to higher prices above the May 18, 2021, high of $28.74. At the time of writing, XAG/USD trades at $28.21 and gains 0.50%. XAG/USD Price Analysis: Technical outlook The daily chart depicts the grey metal as upward biased even though it’s retreating below the crucial resistance level, exposing the significant $28.00 figure. Once that level is cleared, it could potentially lead to a significant shift in the market dynamics. Silver’s next support would be the April 15 low of $27.59 ahead of $27.00. Once that level is taken out, the next demand zone would be the December 4, 2023, high turned support at $25.91. On the other hand, if buyers lift XAG/USD prices back above June 10, 2021, high at $28.28, it could clear the path to test $28.74. A breach of the latter will expose $29.00, followed by the year-to-date (YTD) high at $29.79. XAG/USD Price Action – Daily ChartXAG/USD Overview Today last price 28.2 Today Daily Change 0.10 Today Daily Change % 0.36 Today daily open 28.1   Trends Daily SMA20 26.44 Daily SMA50 24.58 Daily SMA100 24.03 Daily SMA200 23.65   Levels Previous Daily High 29.02 Previous Daily Low 27.95 Previous Weekly High 29.8 Previous Weekly Low 26.88 Previous Monthly High 25.77 Previous Monthly Low 22.51 Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 28.36 Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 28.61 Daily Pivot Point S1 27.7 Daily Pivot Point S2 27.3 Daily Pivot Point S3 26.64 Daily Pivot Point R1 28.76 Daily Pivot Point R2 29.42 Daily Pivot Point R3 29.82    
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